# Economics Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds

**Live odds across Federal Reserve decisions, inflation, commodities, GDP growth, and labor-market releases tracked across prediction markets.**

Economics prediction markets aggregate 310 active contracts across six subcategories as of June 5, 2026, anchored by the Federal Reserve and commodities books that carry the deepest volume on the board. Coverage spans Fed rate decisions, inflation and CPI prints, GDP growth, recession-timing futures, jobs reports, and commodity-price levels for oil, gold, and natural gas. These contracts resolve against scheduled releases from the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, so each settles on a hard data point rather than a subjective call. With the FOMC meeting roughly every six weeks and the monthly CPI and jobs calendars fixed a year out, the resolution schedule is among the most predictable of any category on the board.

## Key facts

- Markets listed: 9
- Combined lifetime volume of listed markets: $151.6M
- Venues: Kalshi and Polymarket

## Top markets

Each venue's own price, in percent.

| Market | Leading outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Volume |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Fed Rate Decision Dec 2026](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/fed-rate-decision-dec-2026) | Hike 25bps | 90% | 89% | $46.0M |
| [Number of rate cuts in 2026?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/fed-rate-changes-count-2026) | Exactly 0 cuts | 98% | — | $42.8M |
| [Will the Citrini scenario happen?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/happen-the-citrini-scenario-2028) | Yes | 20% | — | $26.0M |
| [Next Fed rate hike?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/fed-rate-hike-2026) | Yes | — | 97% | $11.9M |
| [Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/happen-no-fed-rate-cuts-2026) | Yes | — | 98% | $9.6M |
| [Recession this year?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/recession-us-2026) | Starts | 3% | — | $6.7M |
| [Fed Rate Decision Jan 2027](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/fed-rate-decision-jan-2027) | Hike 25bps | 59% | 57% | $3.8M |
| [Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/be-charged-with-a-federal-crime-in-2026) | Ilhan Omar | 24% | — | $2.9M |
| [Fed rate cut before 2027?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/fed-rate-cut-2027) | Yes | 2% | — | $1.8M |

## Top Economics Markets

The Federal Reserve subcategory is consistently the deepest on the board, with 125 active contracts spanning rate-decision markets for each scheduled FOMC meeting, terminal-rate futures, and the year-end policy path. Commodities runs close behind at 114 contracts, covering oil, gold, natural gas, and agricultural price levels that settle against benchmark closes. Inflation carries 36 contracts tied to monthly CPI and PCE releases, while growth (18 contracts) covers GDP and recession-timing futures and the labor market (14 contracts) tracks nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. The high-volume contracts here are structurally binary: a rate move clears a threshold, a CPI print lands above or below a strike, a payrolls number resolves a range. The live top-markets widget above shows where each contract prices today.

## Today's Economics Movers

What moves economics contracts is a fixed calendar of data releases, not random news flow. A CPI surprise repriced the entire Fed rate path within minutes of the BLS print; a soft jobs report shifts recession-timing futures; an FOMC statement or dot-plot revision moves terminal-rate contracts across every scheduled meeting at once. Commodity markets respond to inventory reports, OPEC decisions, and supply shocks rather than the macro calendar. Because the catalysts are scheduled, the biggest moves cluster on known release dates, which is why economics volume spikes on FOMC days, CPI mornings, and the first Friday of each month. The live movers widget above tracks the current biggest movers and exact cents.

## Why Economics Prediction Markets

Prediction markets price economic outcomes as a single implied probability that updates in real time, rather than the spread of forecasts published by banks and survey firms. Where a consensus estimate gives a point forecast, a binary contract gives the market-clearing odds of a rate cut, a recession by a given quarter, or a CPI print above target. The contracts resolve against official Federal Reserve, BLS, and BEA data, so settlement is unambiguous. Cross-platform price discovery surfaces where one venue's book reads a data release differently from another, and the real-time updates mean the implied probability reflects the latest information rather than a stale monthly survey.

## FAQs

### What economics markets does Prediction Genius cover?

Prediction Genius aggregates 310 active economics contracts across six subcategories as of June 5, 2026: Federal Reserve rate decisions (125), commodities (114), inflation and CPI (36), GDP growth and recession timing (18), the labor market (14), and international economics. Coverage spans every scheduled FOMC, CPI, and jobs release.

### Where are the highest-volume economics markets?

The Federal Reserve subcategory carries the most volume, anchored by rate-decision contracts for each FOMC meeting and year-end terminal-rate futures. Commodities markets in oil and gold run a close second. The live board above shows current pricing on each contract across platforms.

### How do economics prediction markets resolve?

Each contract settles against an official data release. Fed markets resolve on the FOMC rate decision, inflation markets on the BLS CPI or PCE print, growth markets on BEA GDP figures, and labor markets on the monthly nonfarm payrolls report. Commodity contracts settle against benchmark closing prices.

### What's the biggest economics market right now?

As of June 5, 2026, the Federal Reserve rate-decision and terminal-rate contracts carry the deepest volume in the economics category, with commodity price-level markets in oil and gold close behind. Check the live top-markets widget above for the current favorite and exact cents on each platform.

### How do economics prediction market prices compare across platforms?

Major platforms often diverge on Fed and CPI contracts because of different resolution wording and book depth, with tighter spreads on the most-traded rate-decision markets and wider gaps on thinner commodity contracts. The live board above shows current spread sizes across venues.

## Browse

- [Federal Reserve](https://predictiongenius.io/economics/fed) (131 markets)
- [Inflation](https://predictiongenius.io/economics/inflation) (86 markets)
- [Labor Market](https://predictiongenius.io/economics/labor) (86 markets)
- [Growth](https://predictiongenius.io/economics/growth) (79 markets)
- [Demographics & Migration](https://predictiongenius.io/economics/demographics) (1 markets)
- [Public Finance](https://predictiongenius.io/economics/public-finance) (31 markets)
- [Commodities](https://predictiongenius.io/economics/commodities) (192 markets)
- [international-economics](https://predictiongenius.io/economics/international-economics) (49 markets)
- [Transportation](https://predictiongenius.io/economics/transportation) (19 markets)
- [Tourism & Travel](https://predictiongenius.io/economics/tourism) (41 markets)
- [Infrastructure](https://predictiongenius.io/economics/infrastructure) (59 markets)

Source: Prediction Genius. Live Kalshi and Polymarket prices; quote times are on each market page. https://predictiongenius.io/economics