# Politics Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds

**Live odds across US elections, US and world leaders, geopolitical conflict, and policy-action markets tracked across prediction markets.**

Politics is the deepest category on Prediction Genius, spanning 3,401 active contracts as of June 5, 2026 across eight subcategories. US Elections is the dominant subcategory at 2,158 markets, anchored by control-of-Congress and presidential futures, with US Leaders, Geopolitics, and Regions adding hundreds more contracts on leadership tenure, conflict outcomes, and country-level events. Coverage reaches policy-action markets, international elections, and legal-case outcomes, with each contract resolving against verifiable public events such as certified election results, official appointments, and confirmed government actions. The November 3, 2026 US general election is the category's central catalyst, and the live top-markets and movers widgets above show where each contract prices today.

## Key facts

- Markets listed: 14
- Combined lifetime volume of listed markets: $3.9B
- Venues: Kalshi and Polymarket

## Top markets

Each venue's own price, in percent.

| Market | Leading outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Volume |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/nominee-president-us-dem-2028) | Winner of first state contest | 44% | — | $1.6B |
| [2028 US Presidential Election](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/us-presidential-election-2028) | Jon Ossoff | 18% | 17% | $842.0M |
| [2028 Republican Presidential Nominee](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/nominee-president-us-rep-2028) | Winner of first state contest | 44% | — | $829.1M |
| [2027 French Presidential Election](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/france-presidential-election-2027) | Marine Le Pen | 53% | 47% | $172.3M |
| [Venezuela Leadership 2026](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/leader-venezuela-2026) | Nicolás Maduro | — | 90% | $106.9M |
| [Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/us-invade-iran-by-2027) | Yes | — | 9% | $80.2M |
| [Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/geo-invade-china-taiwan-eoy-2026) | Yes | — | 2% | $48.3M |
| [Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/geo-acquire-greenland-by-2027) | Yes | 2% | 1% | $37.8M |
| [Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/iran-regime-by-2027) | Yes | — | 3% | $36.1M |
| [Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/out-putin-26dec31) | Vladimir Putin | 3% | — | $29.1M |
| [Clarity Act Becomes Law eoy-2026](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/bill-clarity-becomes-law-eoy-2026) | Yes | — | 2% | $25.2M |
| [Xi Jinping out before 2027?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/out-xi-jinping-by-2027) | Xi Jinping out before 2027 | — | 2% | $18.0M |
| [Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/leave-their-role-in-the-trump-administration-in-2026) | Meghan Bauer | 78% | — | $17.1M |
| [Save Act Becomes Law 27jan04](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/bill-save-becomes-law-27jan04) | SAVE Act (H.R. 22) | 1% | — | $16.3M |

## Top Politics Markets

US Elections is consistently the highest-volume subcategory on the board, carrying 2,158 of the category's 3,401 active contracts as of June 5, 2026. The deepest market types here are control-of-Congress futures and presidential nomination and winner contracts, which structurally ask which party or candidate prevails and resolve on certified results. US Leaders, at 354 markets, tracks tenure, cabinet, and approval questions for sitting US officials, while Geopolitics (258 markets) and Regions (223 markets) cover conflict outcomes, ceasefires, and country-specific events. Policy markets add 203 contracts on legislative and executive actions. World Leaders, International Elections, and Legal Cases round out the set. The live board above shows current pricing on each.

## Today's Politics Movers

Politics markets reprice on a defined set of durable catalysts rather than random noise. Election-cycle markets move on polling releases, candidate announcements, primary results, and FEC fundraising deadlines. Leadership and tenure contracts in US Leaders and World Leaders swing on resignations, appointments, health news, and official statements. Geopolitics and Regions contracts repricing follows ceasefire announcements, military developments, and diplomatic outcomes, while Policy markets move on legislative votes and executive actions. These catalyst classes are scheduled or event-driven, which is why the same subcategories surface repeatedly among the day's largest moves. The live movers widget above shows the current biggest movers and exact cents on each platform.

## Why Politics Prediction Markets

Prediction markets price political questions as binary contracts that settle to one or zero against a verifiable outcome, which converts polling, punditry, and speculation into a single implied probability. Unlike traditional polls, which sample sentiment at a point in time, these markets update continuously as new information arrives and aggregate the views of traders putting capital behind their forecasts. Because the same question often trades on more than one platform, cross-platform price discovery surfaces where the consensus is firm and where it diverges. Political contracts resolve on objective public events such as certified election results, official appointments, and confirmed government actions, which keeps settlement transparent and disputes rare.

## FAQs

### What politics markets does Prediction Genius cover?

Prediction Genius aggregates 3,401 active politics contracts across eight subcategories as of June 5, 2026: US Elections (2,158 markets), US Leaders (354), Geopolitics (258), Regions (223), Policy (203), World Leaders (126), International Elections (65), and Legal Cases (14).

### Where are the highest-volume politics markets?

The highest-volume politics markets are in US Elections, structurally led by control-of-Congress futures and presidential nomination and winner contracts. Leadership-tenure and geopolitical-conflict markets also carry significant volume. The live top-markets widget above shows current pricing on each contract.

### How do politics prediction markets resolve?

Politics contracts resolve against verifiable public events. Election markets settle on certified results, leadership markets on official appointments or confirmed departures, and policy and legal-case markets on documented government actions or court rulings, with each contract paying one or zero.

### What's the biggest politics market right now?

As of June 5, 2026, US Elections is the largest politics scope at 2,158 active contracts, led by 2026 control-of-Congress and 2028 presidential futures. For the single highest-volume contract and its current price on each platform, see the live top-markets widget above.

### How do politics prediction market prices compare across platforms?

The same political question often trades on more than one platform, and prices can diverge because of different resolution wording, deeper order books, or tighter spreads on one venue. Comparing across platforms surfaces the firmest consensus and the widest spreads. The live board above shows current cross-platform pricing.

## Browse

- [US Elections](https://predictiongenius.io/politics/us-elections) (9302 markets)
- [International Elections](https://predictiongenius.io/politics/international-elections) (525 markets)
- [US Leaders](https://predictiongenius.io/politics/us-leaders) (66 markets)
- [World Leaders](https://predictiongenius.io/politics/world-leaders) (19 markets)
- [Regions](https://predictiongenius.io/politics/regions) (44 markets)
- [Policy](https://predictiongenius.io/politics/policy) (702 markets)
- [Geopolitics](https://predictiongenius.io/politics/geopolitics) (472 markets)
- [political-events](https://predictiongenius.io/politics/political-events) (23 markets)
- [Legal Cases](https://predictiongenius.io/politics/legal-cases) (68 markets)

Source: Prediction Genius. Live Kalshi and Polymarket prices; quote times are on each market page. https://predictiongenius.io/politics