About Prediction Genius

The data layer for prediction markets.

Kalshi has the Bills to win the Super Bowl at one price. Polymarket has them at another. Most people only ever see one. We do one thing: put every prediction market in one place, show you where the prices disagree, and tell you what the number actually means.

Prediction Genius is the analysis layer on top of the exchanges. We pull live odds, volume, and resolution data from the major venues, match the same real-world question across platforms, and write about it like you can handle a real take. Sports, politics, crypto, econ, and the genuinely absurd. Resolving tonight or in 2028. One board.

What we are not

We are not an exchange. We do not take trades, hold funds, or run a market. When you click through to trade, you are doing that on Kalshi or Polymarket directly, under their rules and your jurisdiction’s laws. Our job ends at making the landscape readable.

How the matching works

A market on Kalshi and a market on Polymarket can ask the identical question and never know the other exists. Our engine fixes that. It ingests prices, volume, and order books from each exchange’s public API on a 60-second cycle, and every five minutes runs a full match pass that groups markets asking the same thing (“Will the Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?”) into one record with both prices side by side.

Those matches are not guesses. The engine is deterministic, built from structured sports parsers, composite-key extractors for thematic markets, and similarity fallbacks. Kalshi and Polymarket are the cross-platform set; PredictIt we read for reference but do not cross-match. The full architecture is public in our technical documentation.

What we hold ourselves to

Accuracy. Every price, volume, and resolution date is live exchange data on a 60-second refresh. Editorial cites the specific market and price at the time of writing.
Independence. No exchange pays us for favorable coverage, and we do not coordinate what we publish with them. Full detail on the Disclosure page.
Freshness. Articles carry a published date and a last-reviewed date. Market pages update in real time.
Transparency. AI-written and AI-assisted content is labeled by byline (see Disclosure). Named authors sign their own analysis.
Corrections. We fix real errors in the open, with a visible note. Here is how to flag one.

What we will not do

Tell you what to bet. This is data and analysis, not financial, investment, or betting advice. See the Terms of Service.
Run a market or touch your trades.
Hold your money, beyond charging for our own subscriptions.
Sell or share your personal data. See the Privacy Policy.

Contact

Editorial, corrections, privacy, legal, partnerships, or anything else: hello@predictiongenius.io.

Prediction Genius Inc., Delaware, USA.

How the matching works

What we hold ourselves to

Accuracy. Every price, volume, and resolution date is live exchange data on a 60-second refresh. Editorial cites the specific market and price at the time of writing.

Independence. No exchange pays us for favorable coverage, and we do not coordinate what we publish with them. Full detail on the Disclosure page.

Freshness. Articles carry a published date and a last-reviewed date. Market pages update in real time.

Transparency. AI-written and AI-assisted content is labeled by byline (see Disclosure). Named authors sign their own analysis.

Corrections. We fix real errors in the open, with a visible note. Here is how to flag one.