Disclosure

Where our data comes from, who pays us, and what could color what you read. No fine print, no burying it. Here is the whole picture in plain language.

1. Editorial independence

The exchanges do not write our copy. Analysis, picks, commentary, market intros all of it is produced independently of Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. They do not pay us to talk up specific markets, and we do not run editorial decisions past them. We write what the data says, then disclose anything that could look like a conflict.

2. Data attribution

Prices, volume, and resolution data come from the public APIs and order books of:

• Kalshi — a CFTC-regulated U.S. prediction market exchange
• Polymarket — an offshore decentralized prediction market
• PredictIt — a U.S. academic prediction market

We aggregate and normalize this data so you can compare it. Kalshi and Polymarket are the cross-platform pairing set; PredictIt we read for reference and do not match against the others. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by any exchange. Click through to trade and you are dealing with that exchange directly, under its terms and your jurisdiction’s laws.

3. Affiliate relationships

Right now: none. We have no active affiliate deals with Kalshi, Polymarket, or PredictIt. The tracking parameters on our outbound links feed our own analytics and earn us nothing.

If that changes: we may sign affiliate or revenue-share deals with exchanges, sponsors, or related services down the line. When we do, we will:

• Name every commercial relationship on this page
• Label affiliate-linked content visibly on the page it appears
• Keep the wall up. A commercial deal does not buy favorable coverage. We write what is accurate, then disclose the relationship.

4. Advertising and sponsorships

No display ads on the site today. If we take on sponsorship or advertising later, it will be labeled as exactly that, in the open.

5. Not financial or betting advice

Everything here is for information and education. It is not financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or betting advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss, and past results do not predict future ones. Talk to a qualified professional before you put money anywhere. Full disclaimers live in our Terms of Service.

6. AI-generated content

Some of what you read is written or assisted by large language models (Claude, by Anthropic). A human reviews it before it publishes, and it exists to add context to live market data. You can tell which is which from the byline: a “Genius Staff” or “Prediction Genius” byline means no individual author; a named byline (for example, “By Eric Pauly”) is that person’s own analysis.

7. Corrections and feedback

See something wrong in our analysis, attribution, or disclosures? Email hello@predictiongenius.io. We act on real correction requests fast and mark the fix with a visible note when it matters.

Prediction Genius Inc., Delaware, USA. Editorial: hello@predictiongenius.io. Legal: hello@predictiongenius.io.