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    © 2026 Prediction Genius. All rights reserved.

    Informational content about prediction markets only. Not financial, investment, or betting advice. Prediction markets involve risk.

    News & Analysis

    Prediction market analysis from Genius editors and contributors

    Featured
    sportsDeep Analysis

    Ballon d'Or 2026: The Market Is Paying for Goals in a Trophy Vote

    Ballon d'Or 2026 is decided October 26 in London. Kane leads a 20-name board with $44.4M traded, but the Champions League and World Cup went elsewhere.

    GS
    Genius Staff
    ·September 14, 2026·2d ago

    Latest

    77 articles
    politicsDeep
    French Presidential Election 2027: The Market Is Underpricing Le Pen
    French presidential election 2027 odds on a 42-name board with $131.8M traded across two venues. Why the polling says the market has Marine Le Pen too low.
    Genius Staff·2d ago
    sportsDeep
    Super Bowl LXI: A Full Week of Football Barely Moved a 32-Team Board
    Super Bowl LXI odds after NFL Week 1: 15 of 16 games are final, and 20 of the 32 teams on a $161M board closed the week exactly where they opened.
    Genius Staff·2d ago
    sportsDeep
    Jaguars Win Total 2026: The 13-4 Came Without a Healthy Receiver Room
    Jaguars Win Total 2026: Jacksonville went 13-4 with a +138 differential and the NFL's best run defense. A 17-rung Kalshi ladder holds $34.8K in volume.
    Genius Staff·15d ago

    Sports·

    View all 53 →
    Buccaneers Win Total 2026: A +7 Turnover Year Produced an 8-9 Team
    Genius Staff·15d ago
    Bills Win Total 2026: The Ladder Never Priced the Coaching Change
    Genius Staff·15d ago
    Panthers Win Total 2026: Carolina's 8-9 Was Borrowed, Not Earned
    Genius Staff·15d ago
    Colts Win Total 2026: The Ladder Prices the 8-9, Not the 8-2
    Genius Staff·15d ago

    Politics·

    View all 16 →
    2026 Balance of Power: The House Is Priced, the Senate Is a Coin Flip
    Genius Staff·Aug 12
    US-Iran War Odds: Traders Aren't Buying Trump's 'Good Talks'
    Genius Staff·Jul 27
    Next Israeli PM Odds: The Market Has Eisenkot Passing Netanyahu
    Genius Staff·Jul 9
    Brazil 2026 Election: The Books Agree on Lula, Not on His Challenger
    Genius Staff·Jul 6

    Crypto·

    View all 5 →
    Bitcoin Price 2027: The Market Says BTC Lands Under $70K
    Genius Staff·Jun 28
    XRP June 2026 Price Ladder Has Settled at the Floor
    Genius Staff·Jun 28
    Dogecoin Price 2026: The Whole Ladder Is Priced as a Long Shot
    Genius Staff·Jun 28
    Ethereum Price 2027: The Market Is Betting on a Flat-to-Down Year
    Genius Staff·Jun 28

    Economics·

    View all 2 →
    Fed Rate Decision September 2026: The Hike Bid Cracked on July CPI
    Genius Staff·Aug 12
    Fed Rate Decision July 2026: The Hold Is Chalk Even With the Iran Truce
    Genius Staff·Jul 27

    All Articles

    59 more
    Packers Win Total 2026: The Easy Games Come at the Wrong Time
    sportsGenius Staff·15d ago
    Chargers Win Total 2026: The 11-6 Was a 6-2 Record in One-Score Games
    sportsGenius Staff·15d ago
    Ravens Win Total 2026: Baltimore Went 6-7 With Lamar Jackson Healthy
    sportsGenius Staff·15d ago
    Titans Win Total 2026: Tennessee Spent $246M and Skipped the Offensive Line
    sportsGenius Staff·15d ago
    Chiefs Win Total 2026: The Ladder Overpays for the Twelfth Win
    sportsGenius Staff·15d ago
    Lions Win Total 2026: Detroit's 9-8 Was a 12-Win Season
    sportsGenius Staff·15d ago
    Bengals Win Total 2026: The Ladder Is Priced for 17 Burrow Games
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Commanders Win Total 2026: Washington's Turnover Year Was the Floor
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Jets Win Total 2026: Five Wins Is the Number, Not Six
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Falcons Win Total 2026: Atlanta Lost 16 Sacks and Gained a Quarterback Competition
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Rams Win Total 2026: The Floor Is the Rung Nobody Priced
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Steelers Win Total 2026: The Market Never Bought the 10-7
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Broncos Win Total 2026: Denver Earned the Haircut, Not Third Place
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Eagles Win Total 2026: The Top of the Ladder Is Stale
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Texans Win Total 2026: The Ladder Is Pricing Away the AFC's Best Defense
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    49ers Win Total 2026: Ten Wins Undersells a Full Purdy Season
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Raiders Win Total 2026: The Market Is Asking a 3-14 Team to Double
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Patriots Win Total 2026: The Schedule Excuse Does Not Hold Up
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Dolphins Win Total 2026: The Market Has Miami Below the 3-14 Jets
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Seahawks Win Total 2026: The Market Made the Rams the NFC West Favorite
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Giants Win Total 2026: The 4-13 Record Lied and the Ladder Still Has It Wrong
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Vikings Win Total 2026: Nine Wins Was the Floor, Not the Ceiling
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Cowboys Win Total 2026: Ten Wins Is Too Many
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Bears Win Total 2026: The Ladder Is Still a Win Too High
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Cardinals Win Total 2026: Arizona's 3-14 Record Understates a Five-Win Team
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Browns Win Total 2026: Six Wins Is the Cheap Rung on This Ladder
    sportsGenius Staff·20d ago
    Saints Win Total 2026: Buy Both Tails, Not the 8.4
    sportsEric Pauly·Aug 12
    NFC East 2026: Dallas and Philadelphia Up Top, Washington Is the Fade
    sportsEric Pauly·Aug 12
    AFC East 2026: Buffalo Is the Chalk I Do Not Trust, New England Is the Value
    sportsEric Pauly·Aug 12
    AFC West 2026: The Chargers Are the Pick, Not the Chiefs Coming Off 6-11
    sportsEric Pauly·Aug 11
    AFC North 2026: Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson Are Both on Fraud Watch
    sportsEric Pauly·Aug 11
    MLB Trade Deadline Odds: The Market Bought Boston and Sold Philadelphia
    sportsGenius Staff·Aug 4
    AL West 2026 Odds: Houston Flipped the Division in Seven Days
    sportsGenius Staff·Aug 3
    Spain World Cup Odds: The Favorite's Case in the 2026 Final
    sportsGenius Staff·Jul 16
    Argentina World Cup Odds: The Underdog Is the Value in the 2026 Final
    sportsGenius Staff·Jul 16
    Brewers World Series Odds Held Flat Through the McCullers Trade
    sportsGenius Staff·Jul 15
    Home Run Derby 2026 Pick: Junior Caminero Is the Value Over Schwarber
    sportsGenius Staff·Jul 13
    World Cup 2026 Winner: Fade France and Buy the Field
    sportsGenius Staff·Jul 10
    World Cup 2026 Winner: France Is the Standout as the Bracket Thins to Eight
    sportsGenius Staff·Jul 6
    2028 Presidential Election Odds: Vance Leads, But No One Breaks Away
    politicsGenius Staff·Jul 1
    GTA 6 Delay Odds: The Market Stopped Pricing More Delays
    gamingGenius Staff·Jul 1
    Trump Greenland Odds: Yes Is the Fade Into 2027, and Denmark Is Why
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    Brazil 2026 Election Odds: Flávio Bolsonaro Is Lula's Only Real Chase
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    Venezuela Leadership 2026: Maduro Is the Market's Verdict on a Board of 18
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    French Presidential Election Odds: Bardella Leads a Wide-Open Field
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    US Iran War 2027: The Market Prices an Invasion, Not the Headlines
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2026 Senate Control Odds: Why Republicans Are Favored While the Polls Say Otherwise
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2026 House Control: Democrats Are the Heavy Favorite, but the Senate Tells a Different Story
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2028 Presidential Winning Party: Democrats Lead, but the Base Rate Is Doing the Heavy Lifting
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2028 Democratic Nominee Odds: Newsom Leads a Wide-Open 46-Name Field
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2028 Republican Nominee Odds: Vance Leads, Rubio Is the Cross-Platform Spread
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    World Cup Golden Ball 2026: Messi Is the Runaway Favorite Again
    sportsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    World Cup Young Player Award 2026: Lamine Yamal Leads a 17-Name Field
    sportsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    Solana Price 2026 Odds: The Ladder Says $80 Is the Real Line
    cryptoGenius Staff·Jun 28
    World Cup Most Goals 2026: Argentina and France Split the Lead
    sportsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    World Cup Golden Glove 2026: Emiliano Martinez Leads a Wide-Open Keeper Race
    sportsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    World Cup Golden Boot 2026: Messi Is the Favorite the Market Trusts
    sportsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    World Cup 2026 Continent Odds: Europe, South America, and Nothing Else Close
    sportsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    World Cup 2026 Winner: France Is the Market's Top Pick in a 48-Team Field
    sportsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    Top Markets
    SPORFIFA World Cup Winner 2026$5419.6MPOLI2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee$1498.8MPOLI2028 US Presidential Election$773.3MPOLI2028 Republican Presidential Nominee$769.9MSPORThe Open Championship Winner$318.4MECONFed Rate Decision Sep 2026$306.6MSPORMexico vs England$273.5MSPORLeBron James' Next Team$271.8M
    Editor's Picks
    1Ballon d'Or 2026: The Market Is Paying for Goals in a Trophy Vote2French Presidential Election 2027: The Market Is Underpricing Le Pen3Super Bowl LXI: A Full Week of Football Barely Moved a 32-Team Board4Jaguars Win Total 2026: The 13-4 Came Without a Healthy Receiver Room5Buccaneers Win Total 2026: A +7 Turnover Year Produced an 8-9 Team
    Latest from Eric Pauly
    EP
    Eric Pauly
    Founder, Prediction Genius
    Saints Win Total 2026: Buy Both Tails, Not the 8.4
    NFC East 2026: Dallas and Philadelphia Up Top, Washington Is the Fade
    AFC East 2026: Buffalo Is the Chalk I Do Not Trust, New England Is the Value
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