The 2028 Republican presidential nominee market trades across roughly $731M in cumulative volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, with 46 listed contenders and a live race narrowed to Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and a chase tier led by Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. The live board above carries the current cross-platform price on every name; the market resolves at the Republican National Convention in the summer of 2028.
The 2028 Republican presidential nominee market is a multi-year position trade, not a single event, and the board reflects that structure. A field of 46 named contenders splits the probability across roughly $731M in cumulative volume, but the conviction money sits with two names: Vice President J.D. Vance carries the chalk by close to a two-to-one margin over Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and everyone else trades in single digits. Two things changed over the summer of 2026. The front-runner's price firmed, and the 8c cross-platform gap on Rubio that defined this board in June closed completely. This page covers who the field is, what structurally moves it, and exactly how it resolves at the 2028 Republican National Convention.
J.D. Vance sits at the front of the field as the most heavily backed name, and his position strengthened through the summer. Kalshi's Vance line traded near 32c in early June 2026, repriced into the low 40s by the middle of that month, and has held above 40c since. The premium is the standard one an incumbent vice president carries into an open nomination cycle, and it has been reinforced by early consolidation: Tucker Carlson, himself a listed contender on this board, publicly ruled out a run of his own and named Vance as the only figure in the party capable of carrying the Trump coalition forward. The chief risks to that standing are the ones that move any front-runner. The administration's standing, the primary calendar, and whether a single challenger consolidates the rest of the field.
Marco Rubio is the clear second name and the most instructive price on the board. His Kalshi line climbed to 30c through June 2026 as his profile rose during the US strikes on Iran, while Polymarket held him near 22c on the same question, an 8c disagreement between the two venues. That gap is now gone. Kalshi has come down roughly 7c since the end of June and both books now quote Rubio at the same number. Convergence of that size on a contract this deep reads as the market settling a disagreement rather than a pricing error, and it means the second slot is finally priced consistently across venues. Where the books still split on the chase tier is the more interesting read now.
The chase tier reordered over the same stretch. Ron DeSantis holds third on the board, and he got there without moving: his Kalshi line has sat at 5c since early June while the names around him fell. Tucker Carlson halved from 6c to 3c on both books after ruling himself out, and Donald Trump Jr. drifted from 5c into the low single digits. Donald Trump himself remains a listed contender just behind that group, a third-term contract the market prices as live but remote. The 2028 Republican candidate field market tracks the declared-versus-undeclared layer underneath all of this.
Below the top five the board flattens into a long tail at 1c or less. Alongside conventional names like Ted Cruz, Greg Abbott, Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the platforms have opened contracts on figures holding no political office at all, from Erika Kirk to Tom Brady and Kim Kardashian. Those listings reflect what traders asked the exchanges to open, not an editorial judgment about viability, and most of them price at or near zero. The live board above is the only honest read on which tail names are actually moving and which are dormant.
The 2028 Republican presidential nominee market resolves to the candidate who secures the Republican nomination for president, formally determined at the 2028 Republican National Convention in the summer of 2028. The nomination is decided by delegates accumulated through the state-by-state primary and caucus calendar and confirmed by the convention vote. The winning contender's contract pays out while every other contract resolves to zero. The listed settlement date carries to the November 2028 general election as a buffer, but the outcome is fixed the moment a candidate clinches the nomination.
The 2028 Republican nominee race runs alongside the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee odds, the larger of the two nomination boards by volume, and both feed the 2028 US Presidential Election market and the 2028 presidential winning party odds, where the nominee boards combine into the general-election question. For everything else on the ballot, the politics prediction markets hub covers the full slate of US and international election odds.
Resolves to the candidate who wins the 2028 Republican Party nomination for President of the United States, formally determined at the 2028 Republican National Convention in the summer of 2028. The nominee is decided by delegates accumulated through the state primary and caucus calendar and confirmed by the convention vote. The winning contender’s contract pays $1 per share; all other contender contracts resolve to $0. The listed market settlement date carries to the November 2028 general election as a buffer, but the outcome is fixed when a candidate clinches the nomination. If the eventual nominee is a contender not individually listed, the market resolves per each platform’s "other" and tie rules.
The live board above ranks current cross-platform prices on all 46 listed contenders across Kalshi and Polymarket. J.D. Vance leads by close to a two-to-one margin over Marco Rubio, with Ron DeSantis, Tucker Carlson, and Donald Trump Jr. heading a chase tier that trades in low single digits.
The market resolves when a candidate secures the nomination, formally confirmed at the 2028 Republican National Convention in the summer of 2028. The contract carries a settlement buffer to the November 2028 general election, but the outcome is fixed the moment the nominee clinches.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the 2028 Republican presidential nominee market, with cross-platform pairs on most of the leading contenders and roughly $731M in combined cumulative volume. The board above compares both platforms side by side so you can see where the prices diverge.
As of the August 2026 review, Vice President J.D. Vance is the favorite at 44c on Kalshi, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio second at 23c on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Check the live board above for the current ranking.
Watch whether the field consolidates behind or fractures away from J.D. Vance, whether the Kalshi and Polymarket lines on Marco Rubio stay converged after an 8c gap closed between late June and August 2026, and which listed contenders follow Tucker Carlson in formally ruling out a 2028 run.