Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads the Alaska Governor 2026 board, but no candidate implies more than roughly a quarter of the vote. This is an open-seat scramble: Governor Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, 17 names filed to replace him, and a top-four nonpartisan primary on August 18, 2026 feeds a ranked-choice general on November 3, 2026. The market carries about $1.19M in cumulative volume across Kalshi and Polymarket. The live board above ranks every contender's current cross-platform price.
Alaska's 2026 race for governor is the rare open-seat contest with no obvious favorite. Governor Mike Dunleavy is term-limited after two terms, 17 candidates filed to replace him, and the field splits across a crowded Republican lane, two Democrats, and a former governor running unaffiliated. The Alaska Governor 2026 market prices that uncertainty directly: the leader sits near a quarter of the implied vote and the pack behind him is tightly bunched. The live board above shows where each name trades right now.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state representative from Sitka who served in the Alaska House from 2013 to 2023, currently prices as the single most likely winner on the board. Fellow Democrat Tom Begich, the former Alaska Senate minority leader and uncle of U.S. Representative Nick Begich III, trades just behind him. The two Democrats sit at the top of the board, and whether they split the left-leaning electorate or one consolidates it is the central question the market is trying to answer.
The Republican lane is deeper but more fragmented. Businesswoman Bernadette Wilson, running with state senator Mike Shower, is the highest-priced Republican. Former Attorney General Treg Taylor, former Anchorage mayor David Bronson, and former state senator Click Bishop round out the serious GOP names, each trading well behind the leaders. With roughly a dozen Republicans on the primary ballot, vote fragmentation on the right is the mechanical reason no single conservative has separated from the field.
Bill Walker occupies a lane of his own. Alaska's governor from 2014 to 2018, Walker is running nonpartisan again with Randy Hoffbeck, and the market treats him as a live longshot rather than a co-favorite. His path is less about a first-place primary finish than about ranked-choice transfers in a general election that rewards broad second-choice appeal.
Kalshi and Polymarket track each other closely across most of the top of the board. The two platforms agree on Tom Begich and on the second-tier Republicans, which is what you want to see on a market this liquid. The exception is Treg Taylor, where Kalshi prices him meaningfully higher than Polymarket. A gap that wide on a lightly traded name signals that the two order books disagree on how seriously to take a former attorney general in a fragmented primary, not a settled read. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins trades on Kalshi only, so his top-of-board price carries no cross-platform confirmation yet. Check the live board above for the current spread on every name.
The Alaska Governor 2026 market resolves on the November 3, 2026 general election. Alaska runs a top-four nonpartisan primary on August 18, 2026, in which every candidate appears on a single ballot and the four highest finishers advance regardless of party. The general is then decided by ranked-choice tabulation: if no candidate wins an outright majority, last-place candidates are eliminated and their voters' next choices are redistributed until someone crosses 50%. Each candidate contract pays out if that candidate is elected and sworn in as governor, and all other contracts settle at zero. The certified election result is the settlement source of truth on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
The 2026 map runs well beyond Alaska. Compare the California governor 2026 odds and the Georgia governor 2026 race, two more open-seat contests drawing steady cross-platform volume. For the full slate of races, resolution dates, and live cross-platform prices, browse our politics prediction markets hub.
Resolves to the candidate who wins the Alaska gubernatorial general election held November 3, 2026. Alaska uses a top-four nonpartisan primary on August 18, 2026, and the general election is decided by ranked-choice tabulation: if no candidate wins an outright majority of first-choice votes, trailing candidates are eliminated and their supporters' next choices are redistributed until one candidate exceeds 50%. Each candidate contract pays $1 per share if that candidate is elected and sworn in as governor, and every other candidate contract settles at $0. The certified result reported by the Alaska Division of Elections is the source of truth on both Kalshi and Polymarket. If the election is postponed or voided, contracts resolve per each platform's stated rules.
As of July 8, 2026, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads at 25c on Kalshi, with Tom Begich at 23c on Kalshi and 24c on Polymarket. Bernadette Wilson trades at 20c/17c and Treg Taylor at 20c/12c across the two platforms. No contender implies more than roughly 25%.
It resolves on the November 3, 2026 general election. A top-four nonpartisan primary on August 18, 2026 sets the final ballot, and the general is decided by ranked-choice tabulation.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the race with about $1.19M in combined volume. A few candidates, including Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, currently trade on only one platform, so cross-platform prices are not available for every name.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins prices as the narrow leader, but this is a genuinely open field. Tom Begich, Bernadette Wilson, and Treg Taylor all sit within striking distance, and no candidate implies more than about a quarter of the vote.
The August 18, 2026 top-four primary is the next major catalyst. Watch whether the crowded Republican lane consolidates and whether Kreiss-Tomkins or Begich pulls ahead, since both outcomes would move the board well before the November 3, 2026 general.