The Alaska Governor 2026 board is no longer flat. A 17-candidate open-seat scramble has collapsed into a two-name market on the eve of the August 18, 2026 top-four primary, with roughly $1.39M of cumulative Kalshi and Polymarket volume behind it. Governor Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, ranked-choice tabulation decides the November 3, 2026 general, and the live board above ranks every contender's current cross-platform price.
Alaska's open-seat race for governor spent most of 2026 as a genuine free-for-all. It is not one anymore. Governor Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, 17 candidates filed to replace him, and the Alaska Governor 2026 market spent the spring pricing four and five names inside a few cents of each other. Primary week broke that. One Democrat now trades as the clear favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket, one Republican holds the entire conservative lane, and the rest of the field has been repriced into the single digits. The live board above shows where every name sits right now.
Tom Begich is the market's answer. The former Alaska Senate minority leader, running with Julia Hnilicka, is the uncle of U.S. Representative Nick Begich III and entered August priced alongside the rest of the Democratic lane. He left primary week as the outright favorite with Kalshi and Polymarket within a cent of each other on him. The move was not a polling shift. The August primary polling average still has him first at only 18.3%, with Bernadette Wilson at 13.7% and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 12.9%. Traders repriced him for what happens after the primary, not in it.
Kreiss-Tomkins is the other side of that trade. The former Sitka state representative served in the Alaska House from 2013 to 2023, led this board outright in July, and has since given back most of that price even though he still polls within six points of Begich. He runs with nonpartisan Zac Johnson and picked up the endorsement of state senator Matt Claman, who exited the race on June 27, 2026. The market has decided that two Democrats on a ranked-choice general ballot is a problem one of them solves by leaving, and it has picked which one leaves.
Wilson owns the Republican lane outright. The Anchorage businesswoman, running with state senator Mike Shower, is the only Republican the board takes seriously and the only candidate besides Begich trading in double digits. She has pledged to withdraw if she finishes behind another Republican, saying she will not split the voting base, which is exactly the consolidation a crowded GOP field needs. Attorney General Treg Taylor, former state senator Click Bishop, and former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson are the next Republicans on the board and all three sit in single digits. Former governor Bill Walker, running nonpartisan again with Randy Hoffbeck, polls around 7% and trades as a longshot whose path runs through ranked-choice transfers rather than a first-place finish.
Two names that once carried real volume now sit at zero. Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom withdrew on June 1, 2026, and former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola passed on the governor's race entirely to run for the Alaska Senate 2026 seat. Both contracts remain listed on the board and settle at zero.
Alaska's August 18, 2026 primary is nonpartisan and blanket. Every candidate appears on one ballot, voters pick one name, and the four highest finishers advance regardless of party. What makes the Alaska Governor 2026 market unusual is what happens after that. Any of the top four can withdraw through August 31, 2026, the statutory deadline 64 days before the general, and a finisher who withdraws is replaced by the fifth-place candidate until four names remain. The November ballot is not final on primary night.
That 13-day window is why the board looks the way it does. Wilson has committed publicly to stepping aside rather than splitting the Republican vote. Begich and Kreiss-Tomkins have been discussing whether one of them should quit if both advance. A negotiation with a hard deadline sits between the primary count and the ballot that actually resolves this market, and the top of the board is pricing the outcome of that negotiation at least as much as the vote totals.
The two books have converged as the money came in. Kalshi and Polymarket now price Begich within a cent of each other and Wilson within two, which is the agreement you want to see at the top of a board carrying roughly $1.39M in cumulative volume. In July the same market showed a gap of 8c on Treg Taylor between the two exchanges. That gap has narrowed as his price fell into the single digits, and no top-five name currently shows a spread wider than a few cents.
Two structural quirks are worth knowing before reading the board. Kreiss-Tomkins trades on Kalshi only, so his price carries no cross-platform confirmation. And the two exchanges list some minor candidates under different name forms, Dave versus David Bronson being the clearest case, so those legs appear as separate single-platform rows rather than one merged line. Neither is a pricing signal. Check the live board above for the current spread on every name.
The Alaska Governor 2026 market resolves on the November 3, 2026 general election. The August 18, 2026 top-four primary sets the field, withdrawals and fifth-place replacements are settled by August 31, 2026, and the general is decided by ranked-choice tabulation: if no candidate takes an outright majority of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to their next choice until someone crosses 50%. Each candidate contract pays out if that candidate is elected and sworn in as governor, and every other contract settles at zero. The certified result reported by the Alaska Division of Elections is the settlement source of truth on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Alaska is one of 36 governorships on the 2026 map. Compare the California governor 2026 odds and the Georgia governor 2026 race, two more open-seat contests drawing steady cross-platform volume with very different partisan baselines. For the full slate of races, resolution dates, and live cross-platform prices across the midterm map, browse our politics prediction markets hub.
Resolves to the candidate who wins the Alaska gubernatorial general election held November 3, 2026. Alaska runs a top-four nonpartisan primary on August 18, 2026 in which every candidate appears on a single ballot and the four highest finishers advance regardless of party. An advancing candidate can withdraw through August 31, 2026, the statutory deadline 64 days before the general, and a finisher who withdraws is replaced by the next-highest primary vote-getter until four names remain on the ballot. The general is then decided by ranked-choice tabulation: if no candidate wins an outright majority of first-choice votes, trailing candidates are eliminated and their supporters' next choices are redistributed until one candidate exceeds 50%. Each candidate contract pays $1 per share if that candidate is elected and sworn in as governor, and every other candidate contract settles at $0. The certified result reported by the Alaska Division of Elections is the source of truth on both Kalshi and Polymarket. If the election is postponed or voided, contracts resolve per each platform's stated rules.
As of August 17, 2026, Tom Begich leads at 50c on Kalshi and 49c on Polymarket. Bernadette Wilson is second at 24c and 26c, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins trades at 10c on Kalshi, and Treg Taylor sits at 10c and 6c. Every other candidate on the board is in single digits.
It resolves on the November 3, 2026 general election. The top-four nonpartisan primary is August 18, 2026, advancing candidates can withdraw through August 31, 2026, and the general is decided by ranked-choice tabulation.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the race, with about $1.39M in combined volume across 23 candidate contracts. A few names, including Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, trade on only one platform, so cross-platform prices are not available for every candidate.
Tom Begich, at roughly 50c across both platforms as of August 17, 2026. That is a sharp repricing from early July, when he traded near 23c and no candidate on the board implied more than about 25%. Bernadette Wilson is the only other name in double digits on both books.
The August 31, 2026 withdrawal deadline. Bernadette Wilson has pledged to exit if another Republican outpolls her, and Begich and Kreiss-Tomkins have discussed whether one of them should quit if both advance, so the November ballot may not be settled on primary night.