The SAVE Act (H.R. 22) cleared the House 218-213 on February 11, 2026, then hit the wall most single-issue election bills hit: the Senate filibuster and its 60-vote threshold. This market asks whether the bill is signed into law before January 4, 2027, and the live board above prices it as a long shot. Senate Republicans are short of 60 votes and have declined to eliminate the filibuster, leaving budget reconciliation as the only live path to enactment. Roughly $7.4M has traded across Kalshi and Polymarket.
The SAVE Act is the rare bill that passed the House and went nowhere. H.R. 22 cleared the lower chamber 218-213 on February 11, 2026, on a near party-line vote, then ran into the Senate math that has stalled most single-issue election legislation for years. This market prices whether the bill gets a presidential signature before January 4, 2027, and the live board above treats it as a low-probability event. The reason is structural, not a question of political momentum.
The SAVE Act, formally the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, would require documentary proof of US citizenship to register to vote in federal elections. It passed the House. The obstacle sits entirely on the Senate side, where standard legislation needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said passage is unlikely without the votes to break one, and a floor push led by Senator Mike Lee to force the bill through extended debate did not clear the bar.
With Republican leadership unwilling to lower the 60-vote threshold to a simple majority, attention has shifted to passing SAVE Act provisions through the budget reconciliation process, which sidesteps the filibuster but carries its own procedural limits on what can be included. That narrow route is why the board prices enactment low rather than dismissing it outright. The two platforms agree on the read: Kalshi and Polymarket price the Yes side within roughly a cent of each other, a tight cross-platform spread that signals settled consensus rather than disagreement over the odds.
This market resolves Yes if the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) is signed into law before January 4, 2027, and No otherwise. The source of truth is enactment: the bill must pass both the House and the Senate in identical form and receive a presidential signature within the window. House passage is already banked, so the entire question rides on the Senate producing a viable path and the calendar allowing it before the resolution date.
Control of the chamber that decides this bill's fate trades on its own board: see the U.S. Senate control market and the U.S. House control market for the balance-of-power context that shapes every filibuster fight. For the full slate of legislation, election, and policy contracts, browse the politics prediction markets hub.
Resolves Yes if the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) is signed into law before January 4, 2027. The bill must pass both the House and the Senate in identical form and receive a presidential signature within the window. It resolves No if the bill is not enacted by that date, which includes cases where it remains stalled in the Senate, fails a floor vote, or is not signed. The source of truth is the official enactment record. Each Yes share pays $1 if the bill becomes law in the window; all other shares resolve to $0.
As of July 7, 2026, the live board prices H.R. 22 becoming law before January 4, 2027 at 9c on Kalshi and 8c on Polymarket, an implied probability of roughly 8 to 9%. The No side trades at 92c on Kalshi and 93c on Polymarket.
It resolves Yes if the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) is signed into law before January 4, 2027, and No otherwise. Resolution is based on the official enactment record, requiring passage by both chambers and a presidential signature within the window.
The market trades on Kalshi (ticker KXSAVEACT) and Polymarket, with roughly $7.4M in combined volume. The two platforms price the Yes side within about a cent of each other, so the cross-platform spread is minimal.
The bill passed the House 218-213 on February 11, 2026 but needs 60 votes to clear a Senate filibuster, and Republican leadership does not have them. Majority Leader John Thune called passage unlikely, leaving budget reconciliation as the only live path.
Watch for any move by Senate Republicans to change the filibuster, a reconciliation vehicle that folds in SAVE Act provisions, or a Senate floor whip count approaching 60 votes. Any of those would be the catalyst that moves this market off its current long-shot pricing.