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    Informational content about prediction markets only. Not financial, investment, or betting advice. Prediction markets involve risk.

    News & Analysis

    Prediction market analysis from Genius editors and contributors

    Featured
    politicsDeep Analysis

    2026 Balance of Power: The House Is Priced, the Senate Is a Coin Flip

    2026 Balance of Power odds price the House at 87.5c Democratic and the Senate at a 52c dead heat. Live Kalshi and Polymarket prices on a $19.1M board.

    GS
    Genius Staff
    ·August 12, 2026·12d ago

    Latest

    15 articles
    politicsDeep
    US-Iran War Odds: Traders Aren't Buying Trump's 'Good Talks'
    US-Iran odds: a US invasion of Iran prices at 23c and a nuclear deal by September just 16c, so the market is pricing a wider war ahead of any settlement.
    Genius Staff·28d ago
    politicsDeep
    Next Israeli PM Odds: The Market Has Eisenkot Passing Netanyahu
    Next Israeli PM odds: Eisenkot leads at 46c to Netanyahu's 37c across Kalshi and Polymarket on $26.4M volume, with October 2026 elections drawing near.
    Genius Staff·Jul 9
    politicsDeep
    Brazil 2026 Election: The Books Agree on Lula, Not on His Challenger
    Brazil 2026 Election odds: Lula leads at 61c on Kalshi and Polymarket, but the two books split on Flavio Bolsonaro at 29c vs 22c. Full cross-platform breakdown.
    Genius Staff·Jul 6

    All Articles

    11 more
    2028 Presidential Election Odds: Vance Leads, But Nobody Clears 20c
    politicsGenius Staff·Jul 1
    Trump Greenland Odds: Yes Is a 6c Long Shot Into 2027
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    Brazil 2026 Election Odds: Lula at 58c, Flávio Bolsonaro the Only Real Chase
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    Venezuela Leadership 2026: Maduro at 76c Is the Market's Verdict
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    French Presidential Election Odds: Bardella Leads a Wide-Open Field at 30c
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    US Iran War 2027: The Market Prices an Invasion at 14c, Not the Headlines
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2026 Senate Control Odds: Why Republicans Are Favored While the Polls Say Otherwise
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2026 House Control: Democrats Are the 82c Favorite, but the Senate Tells a Different Story
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2028 Presidential Winning Party: Democrats Lead at 59c, But the Number Is Doing Heavy Lifting
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2028 Democratic Nominee Odds: Newsom Leads a Wide-Open Field at 24c
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    2028 Republican Nominee Odds: Vance Leads at 42c, Rubio Is the Spread
    politicsGenius Staff·Jun 28
    Top Markets
    POLI2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee$1443.5MPOLI2028 US Presidential Election$754.1MPOLI2028 Republican Presidential Nominee$735.5MSPORFIFA World Cup Winner 2026$321.1MPOLI2026 Brazilian Presidential Election$135.5MPOLI2027 French Presidential Election$118.6MSPORSuper Bowl Champion 2026-27 Season$117.6MPOLIVenezuela Leadership 2026$101.2M
    Editor's Picks
    1Saints Win Total 2026: Buy Both Tails, Not the 8.42Fed Rate Decision September 2026: The Hike Bid Just Lost 10c32026 Balance of Power: The House Is Priced, the Senate Is a Coin Flip4NFC East 2026: Dallas and Philadelphia Up Top, Washington Is the Fade5AFC East 2026: Buffalo Is the Chalk I Do Not Trust at 56.5c
    Latest from Eric Pauly
    EP
    Eric Pauly
    Founder, Prediction Genius
    Saints Win Total 2026: Buy Both Tails, Not the 8.4
    NFC East 2026: Dallas and Philadelphia Up Top, Washington Is the Fade
    AFC East 2026: Buffalo Is the Chalk I Do Not Trust at 56.5c
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