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Prediction Genius

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Informational content about prediction markets only. Not financial, investment, or betting advice. Prediction markets involve risk.

News & Analysis

Prediction market analysis from Genius editors and contributors

politicsDeep Analysis

Next Israeli PM Odds: The Market Has Eisenkot Passing Netanyahu

Next Israeli PM odds: Eisenkot leads at 46c to Netanyahu's 37c across Kalshi and Polymarket on $26.4M volume, with October 2026 elections drawing near.

·July 9, 2026·14h ago

Latest

13 articles

politicsDeep

Brazil 2026 Election: The Books Agree on Lula, Not on His Challenger

Brazil 2026 Election odds: Lula leads at 61c on Kalshi and Polymarket, but the two books split on Flavio Bolsonaro at 29c vs 22c. Full cross-platform breakdown.

Genius Staff·3d ago

2028 Presidential Election Odds: Vance Leads, But Nobody Clears 20c

2028 Presidential Election odds: J.D. Vance leads at 19.5c, Marco Rubio 17c, Gavin Newsom 13c on the $690.9M cross-platform winner board. See live prices.

Genius Staff·8d ago

Trump Greenland Odds: Yes Is a 6c Long Shot Into 2027

Trump Greenland odds: Yes trades 7c on Kalshi, 6c on Polymarket across $35.5M volume. The market needs an actual purchase before January 1, 2027 to resolve Yes.

Genius Staff·11d ago

All Articles

9 more

Brazil 2026 Election Odds: Lula at 58c, Flávio Bolsonaro the Only Real Chase

politicsGenius Staff·11d ago

Venezuela Leadership 2026: Maduro at 76c Is the Market's Verdict

politicsGenius Staff·11d ago

French Presidential Election Odds: Bardella Leads a Wide-Open Field at 30c

politicsGenius Staff·11d ago

US Iran War 2027: The Market Prices an Invasion at 14c, Not the Headlines

politicsGenius Staff·11d ago

2026 Senate Control Odds: Why Republicans Are Favored While the Polls Say Otherwise

politicsGenius Staff·11d ago

2026 House Control: Democrats Are the 82c Favorite, but the Senate Tells a Different Story

politicsGenius Staff·11d ago

2028 Presidential Winning Party: Democrats Lead at 59c, But the Number Is Doing Heavy Lifting

politicsGenius Staff·11d ago

2028 Democratic Nominee Odds: Newsom Leads a Wide-Open Field at 24c

politicsGenius Staff·11d ago

2028 Republican Nominee Odds: Vance Leads at 42c, Rubio Is the Spread

politicsGenius Staff·11d ago

Top Markets

SPORFIFA World Cup Winner 2026$1636.9M POLI2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee$1360.9M POLI2028 Republican Presidential Nominee$707.6M POLI2026 Brazilian Presidential Election$114.2M POLI2026 French Presidential Election$102.9M POLIVenezuela Leadership 2026$97.0M POLICA Governor Race 2026$88.5M SPORSuper Bowl Champion 2026-27 Season$82.0M

Editor's Picks

1Next Israeli PM Odds: The Market Has Eisenkot Passing Netanyahu 2Brazil 2026 Election: The Books Agree on Lula, Not on His Challenger 3World Cup 2026 Winner: France Is the Standout at 33.5c as the Bracket Thins 42028 Presidential Election Odds: Vance Leads, But Nobody Clears 20c 5GTA 6 Delay Odds: The Market Stopped Pricing More Delays

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