The Super Bowl LXI board at midseason pays for quarterbacks, not records, and that leaves the Jacksonville Jaguars as the best number on it. The San Francisco 49ers lead at 15% on Kalshi and 14% on Polymarket as of Tuesday morning, November 3, with the Buffalo Bills one tick behind and the Chicago Bears third after Monday night's 34-17 win in Seattle.
Eight weeks of football have reshuffled the top of the board far more than Week 1 did. Our Week 1 read on the Super Bowl board found a field that barely moved. That is no longer true. Kalshi has traded about 219M contracts on this championship board and Polymarket about $71.3M, and the money has followed a clear rule: a 6-1 team with a low-scoring offense gets 4%, while a 4-4 team with a name quarterback still gets 7%.
Super Bowl LXI Odds After Week 8
Prices are the Yes side for each team to win the 2027 Pro Football Championship, read from the Genius API on November 3. Records and point differentials are from ESPN's standings.
| Team | Record | Point diff | Kalshi | Polymarket |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6-1 | +58 | 15% | 14% |
| Buffalo Bills | 6-1 | +52 | 14% | 13% |
| Chicago Bears | 6-2 | +54 | 12% | 11% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5-2 | +36 | 8% | 9% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-2 | +85 | 8% | 7% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 4-4 | +26 | 7% | 7% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4-4 | +26 | 6% | 6% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5-2 | +48 | 6% | 5% |
| Denver Broncos | 6-2 | +7 | 5% | 5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-1 | +47 | 4% | 4% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | +36 | 2% | 2% |
The two venues agree within a cent on every contender, so there is no cross-platform trade at the top. The gap worth noting sits one level down, on the AFC Championship board, where Kalshi has Jacksonville at 17% and Polymarket at 14%. Several Kalshi quotes above were last refreshed early Tuesday morning; Polymarket's were refreshed within the hour.
The bigger story is movement. On Kalshi's daily closes, San Francisco has tripled from 5% on September 8. Buffalo went from 8% to 14%. Los Angeles went the other way, from 17% to 7%, the steepest fall among the top 10.
The Super Bowl LXI Pick: Jacksonville at 7% to 8%
Jacksonville is the buy. The Jaguars are 5-2 and lead the NFL in point differential at +85, a full 27 points clear of San Francisco in second. They have allowed 111 points, second-fewest in the league behind Minnesota. Sunday's 42-7 win over Indianapolis was their widest margin of the year.
Trevor Lawrence is the reason the offense holds up. Through seven games he has 17 touchdown passes against 4 interceptions and a 112.6 passer rating, per ESPN. The two losses came by 7 points at Denver and by 3 points to Houston.
The schedule finishes soft. The Jaguars' 10 remaining opponents carry a combined 31-44-2 record, counting Tennessee (1-7) twice. Only two of them, Chicago and Pittsburgh, have more than four wins.
The board already half agrees. Jacksonville has climbed from 3% on September 8 to 8% on Kalshi, and its AFC price sits third behind Buffalo and Kansas City. At 7% to 8%, the market prices the best point differential in football like the fifth-best team. That is the gap to buy.
Why the Super Bowl LXI Board Discounts the 6-1 Vikings
Minnesota is the clearest case of the board ignoring the standings. The Vikings are 6-1, hold the NFC's No. 2 seed in ESPN's current playoff picture, and have allowed 93 points in seven games, the fewest in the NFL. They trade at 4% on both venues and 8% to win the NFC.
The discount is about scoring. Minnesota has scored 140 points, the fewest of any NFC team with a winning record, and Sunday's 19-15 loss at Detroit was a fair sample: one touchdown short in a game the defense kept close. The NFC board reflects the same view, with the 4-4 Rams at 12% and the 6-1 Vikings at 8%.
Pittsburgh gets the same treatment. The Steelers are 6-2, have won four straight, and took the AFC North lead with Sunday's 27-6 win over Cleveland. They trade at 2%. Aaron Rodgers carries an 86.2 passer rating, and the market does not believe that offense wins three playoff games. Denver is a milder version: 6-2 after beating Kansas City 28-24, but a +7 point differential and 5% on both venues.
The pattern is consistent enough to trade around. Records alone are not moving this board. Point differential and quarterback efficiency are.
Bears Super Bowl LXI Odds: From 2% to 12% in Six Weeks
Chicago is the biggest riser on the board. The Bears closed at 2% on Kalshi on September 23, after a 3-9 loss to Minnesota and before a 31-7 loss at Green Bay. Since then they have won five of six, including three straight, and won Monday's game in Seattle 34-17 over the defending champion Seahawks. Kalshi moved from a 9% close on November 2 to 12% Tuesday morning.
The Bears are 6-2 with a +54 differential and 214 points scored. Caleb Williams has appeared in five of Chicago's eight games, completing 70.9% of his passes with 6 touchdowns and 1 interception, per ESPN. The NFC Championship board has Chicago second at 17% on both venues, behind San Francisco at 26% to 27%.
At 11% to 12%, the Bears are priced as a near co-favorite with Buffalo. That is a fair price for a team that has beaten Seattle on the road, not a cheap one. Chicago still has Detroit twice, Buffalo, and Jacksonville ahead.
Rams Super Bowl LXI Price: Still Too High at 4-4
Los Angeles is the fade. The Rams were 17% on Kalshi on September 8 and have been cut to 7%, yet they still trade above the 6-1 Vikings and the 6-2 Steelers. They are 4-4 with a +26 differential, the same record and differential as Seattle.
Matthew Stafford has 15 touchdowns and 8 interceptions through eight games. The Rams have won two straight, the latest 24-9 over the winless Chargers, but a 4-4 team at 7% needs a run the underlying numbers have not shown yet. Selling the Rams at 7% and owning Jacksonville at the same price is the cleanest pair on this board.
When the Super Bowl LXI Market Resolves
Both venues settle on the winner of the 2027 Pro Football Championship, the game that closes the 2026 NFL season. Every other team's contract settles at 0%. The regular season has 10 weeks left, Weeks 9 through 18 on ESPN's schedule, before the playoff bracket is set. A team eliminated from playoff contention trades toward zero long before the game itself.
Key Super Bowl LXI Catalysts Before the Playoffs
- 49ers return from the bye:** San Francisco hosts Las Vegas in Week 9 after a 29-20 loss at Atlanta in Week 7, its only defeat.
- Jaguars road stretch:** Jacksonville plays at Baltimore, at Tennessee and at the New York Giants in Weeks 9 through 11.
- Bears and Jaguars meet:** Chicago hosts Jacksonville in Week 13, a direct test of the board's third-place team against the pick.
- Bears at Bills:** Buffalo hosts Chicago in Week 15, a game that can separate the two teams priced at 12% to 14%.
- Ravens quarterback status:** Lamar Jackson needs surgery on his right thumb and backup Tyler Huntley left Sunday's 36-10 loss at Buffalo with a toe injury, per the Associated Press, which shapes Jacksonville's Week 9 trip to Baltimore.
Related Super Bowl LXI Markets
The conference boards carry the cleaner signal for teams in the middle tier. The NFC Championship 2026-27 odds price the Vikings at 8% and the Bears at 17%, and the AFC Championship 2026-27 odds show the 3% Kalshi-Polymarket gap on Jacksonville. Quarterback play drives this board, so the 2026 NFL MVP odds move with it. More boards are on the sports prediction markets hub, and every house piece is collected under Genius Staff editorial.