Josh Allen is the deserved 2026 NFL MVP favorite at midseason, but the better number on the board belongs to Brock Purdy. Allen trades at 33% on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of Tuesday morning, November 3. Purdy, who leads every quarterback with seven or more games played in ESPN's adjusted QBR, sits at 14% on Kalshi and 13% on Polymarket, less than half his 30% Kalshi close on October 13.
The award board has swung hard this fall. Kalshi has traded about 39.9M contracts on it and Polymarket about $1.4M. Burrow went from a 5% close to 20% in a month, and Caleb Williams went from 1% to 11% in three weeks.
2026 NFL MVP Odds at Midseason
Prices are the Yes side for each player to win the Associated Press regular-season MVP, read from the Genius API on November 3. Stats are ESPN's season totals through Monday night.
| Player | Team record | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi on Sep 8 |
| Josh Allen, BUF | 6-1 | 33% | 33% | 11% |
| Joe Burrow, CIN | 5-2 | 20% | 16% | 12% |
| Brock Purdy, SF | 6-1 | 14% | 13% | 5% |
| Caleb Williams, CHI | 6-2 | 11% | 10% | 7% |
| Trevor Lawrence, JAX | 5-2 | 9% | 9% | n/a |
| Drake Maye, NE | 5-3 | 5% | 5% | n/a |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | 5-2 | 4% | 4% | n/a |
| Jordan Love, GB | 5-3 | 4% | 3% | 5% |
The top of the board is a two-tier market. Allen alone is priced above 20% on both venues. Below him, four quarterbacks sit between 9% and 20%, and the field behind them is a long tail of 1% to 5% names. Lawrence, Maye and Mahomes have their price history on Polymarket rather than Kalshi in the Genius feed, so their September Kalshi prices are not shown.
The 2026 NFL MVP Pick: Brock Purdy at 13% to 14%
Purdy is the buy. Through seven games he has completed 69.2% of his passes for 1,748 yards, 15 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, with a 110.1 passer rating and a 79.3 adjusted QBR, per ESPN. Only Lamar Jackson and Drew Lock rate higher on adjusted QBR, and neither has played more than five games.
The drop came from one result and a bye. Purdy closed at 25% on Kalshi on October 24. San Francisco lost 29-20 at Atlanta the next day, he closed at 15%, and the 49ers then sat out Week 8. One loss cut his price by 10 points while his season numbers still lead the position. The 49ers are still 6-1, still hold the NFC's top seed in ESPN's standings, and still lead the Super Bowl board.
San Francisco hosts Las Vegas in Week 9 and Minnesota in Week 11. At 13% to 14%, the market prices him like a long shot rather than the efficiency leader on a top seed.
Josh Allen's 2026 NFL MVP Case at 33%
Allen's case is the most complete on the board. Buffalo is 6-1, and his line mixes passing and rushing: 1,793 passing yards at 8.7 yards per attempt, 11 touchdown passes, 5 interceptions, plus 270 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. His adjusted QBR is 76.9.
Sunday's 36-10 win over Baltimore showed why voters reward him. Allen led three second-half touchdown drives, and Bills coach Joe Brady said after the game, "He literally is one of one," per the Associated Press. Kalshi more than tripled Allen, from 11% on September 8 to a 37% close on November 2, and he trades at 33% Tuesday.
At 33%, Allen is fairly priced, not cheap. His 11 touchdown passes trail Burrow's 20 by nine, which is the gap a rival can sell to voters. The next test is Week 9 at Minnesota, against the defense that has allowed a league-low 93 points.
Joe Burrow and the 2026 NFL MVP Spread Between Venues
Burrow carries the widest cross-platform gap at the top: 20% on Kalshi and 16% on Polymarket. Polymarket's ask sits at 18% against Kalshi's 20%, so the cheaper entry is on Polymarket.
The surge is real. Burrow bottomed at a 5% Kalshi close from October 4 to October 6 and has quadrupled since. He leads the NFL with 20 touchdown passes in seven games, completes 73.0% of his throws and carries a 111.6 passer rating. In Sunday's 43-36 overtime win over Tennessee he threw 5 touchdown passes and then ran for the winning score in overtime, per ESPN. Cincinnati has won three straight to reach 5-2.
The hesitation is the team. The Bengals' +48 point differential trails Buffalo and San Francisco, and they sit outside the AFC's top three seeds. At 16% on Polymarket, Burrow is a reasonable hold. At 20% on Kalshi, the price has caught the numbers.
Caleb Williams' 2026 NFL MVP Jump After Monday Night
Williams is the fade at 10% to 11%. He was 1% on Kalshi on October 12 and closed November 2 at 6%, before Monday's 34-17 win at Seattle pushed him to 11%. Chicago has won three straight and is 6-2.
The efficiency is strong: 70.9% completions, 6 touchdowns, 1 interception and a 77.0 adjusted QBR. The volume is not there. Williams has appeared in five of Chicago's eight games and has 1,267 passing yards, roughly 850 fewer than Burrow. A five-game sample priced at 11% leaves no room for the volume gap.
Trevor Lawrence is the sleeper below him. At 9% on both venues, Lawrence has 17 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions and a 112.6 passer rating, the highest of any quarterback with seven or more games played, for a Jaguars team that leads the league in point differential.
Patrick Mahomes is the name the board has walked away from. He traded at 11% on Polymarket in early October and is 4% now, after two straight Kansas City losses, the latest a 28-24 defeat at Denver in which he was sacked on fourth-and-goal, per ESPN. His 12 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and 99.7 passer rating are solid, but nothing in that line competes with Burrow's or Purdy's.
When the 2026 NFL MVP Market Resolves
Both venues settle on the winner of the Associated Press regular-season MVP for the 2026-27 season. Kalshi also lists a Tie/Co-Winners contract at 1%. The award is voted after the regular season, so every midseason price is a bet on 10 more weeks of football plus a voter panel. The Genius listing carries a March 14, 2027 close for the board.
Key 2026 NFL MVP Catalysts for November
- Allen at Minnesota:** Buffalo plays at the league's stingiest defense in Week 9.
- Purdy returns from the bye:** San Francisco hosts Las Vegas in Week 9 and Minnesota in Week 11.
- Burrow's touchdown pace:** 20 touchdown passes in seven games is the stat most likely to keep Kalshi above Polymarket.
- Williams' workload:** a full month of starts is the only way the 1,267-yard total catches up to the price.
- Bears host Jaguars in Week 13:** Williams and Lawrence meet directly in Chicago.
Related 2026 NFL MVP Markets
Team results have moved this board all season, so the Super Bowl LXI Champion odds are the board to watch alongside it. The other season awards trade on the same platforms: the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds and the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds. Every football board is on the sports prediction markets hub, and more analysis is under Genius Staff editorial.