Maxx Crosby Trade Talk Returns After a 45-17 Loss, and the Market Barely Moves

The Las Vegas Raiders lost 45-17 at New England on October 11, their second straight defeat, and the question of whether they should trade Maxx Crosby before the November 10 deadline was back within a day. NFL columnist Pete Prisco argued on October 12 that the Raiders should move him, saying he did not expect Crosby to be part of the team's next contention window. The prediction market on Crosby's next team moved in response, but not far. The outcome that he stays in Las Vegas or retires closed at 90c on the day of the loss and trades at 85c on October 13.

Maxx Crosby's Next Team Odds Today

As of October 13, 2026, the Kalshi board prices the outcomes as follows:

The board spans 32 outcomes and roughly $9.0M in lifetime volume. It trades only on Kalshi. An 85c price on the "stays" outcome implies about a 15% chance Crosby is with another team by the December 1, 2026 resolution date.

How Maxx Crosby's Next Team Market Reacted to the 45-17 Loss

The daily record shows a measured response. The "stays" outcome traded as high as 91c and closed at 90c on October 11, the day of the New England loss. It closed at 87c on October 12, the day the renewed trade calls were published, and sits at 85c on October 13. That is a five-point move across two days.

The trade tier did not absorb that move in any concentrated way. Dallas, the only destination priced above a couple of cents, closed at 6c on October 8, 10, 11 and 12 and trades at 6c on October 13. The probability that left the "stays" outcome spread thinly across the field rather than moving to a single suitor.

The September Run That Moved Maxx Crosby's Next Team Market

The more significant move came earlier. The Raiders opened the season 3-0, beating Miami 27-13, the Chargers 26-14 and New Orleans 35-27. Over that stretch the "stays" outcome climbed from a 72c close on September 13 to 88c on October 1, a 16-point move.

The record has turned since. Las Vegas lost 30-27 to Kansas City on October 4 and 45-17 at New England on October 11, and now sits at 3-2, second in the AFC West. The market gave back only a fraction of the September gain over those two losses, which suggests traders still treat a deal as the exception.

The March Trade Behind Maxx Crosby's Next Team Market

The board carries an unusual history. On March 6, 2026, the Raiders agreed to trade Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens for two first-round picks. The deal was pending a physical, and the Ravens backed out after Crosby failed it in Baltimore. He was recovering from knee surgery at the time, and the Raiders issued a statement that the Ravens had withdrawn from the agreement. Crosby returned to Las Vegas to continue his rehab.

The Baltimore leg on the board now trades at 1c, though it still carries more than $250K in lifetime volume. Crosby has played every Raiders game this season and has 2 sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery through five games, after 10 sacks in 15 games in 2025. He remains under the three-year, $106.5M extension he signed in March 2025.

Four Games Before the Deadline on Maxx Crosby's Next Team Market

The Raiders play four games before the November 10 trade deadline: Buffalo at home on October 18, the Los Angeles Rams at home on October 25, at the New York Jets on November 1 and at San Francisco on November 8.

That sequence is the main input the market has left. The September run showed that wins push the "stays" outcome higher, and the past two weeks showed that losses pull it lower more slowly. A losing stretch into the deadline is the scenario in which the destination tier would be expected to gain. San Francisco, the Raiders' last opponent before the deadline, was one of the two leading destinations on this board in July and now trades at 1c.

When Maxx Crosby's Next Team Market Resolves

The market resolves December 1, 2026, based on which team holds Crosby's contract under Kalshi's rules. The "Stays with Las Vegas or Retires" contract pays out if he remains a Raider or retires by that date. With the trade deadline on November 10, three weeks earlier, the market effectively settles once the deadline passes without a deal.

Key Factors for Maxx Crosby's Next Team Market

• The November 10 trade deadline:** the last realistic window for a move before the December 1 resolution.
• Results in the next four games:** the September winning streak lifted the "stays" price by 16 points; a losing stretch is the main path to a lower one.
• Medical evaluation:** the March deal with Baltimore ended on a failed physical, so any new suitor's review of his knee is the hurdle a second deal would need to clear.
• Dallas as the only live destination:** the Cowboys have held at 6c through the recent losses, and movement there would be the clearest sign of a developing deal.
• Contract structure:** the $106.5M extension keeps a trade financially workable for both sides.