One full week of real football moved almost nothing on the biggest board in sports. Fifteen of the 16 Week 1 games are final, with Denver at Kansas City still to play, and 20 of the 32 teams on this market closed the week on Kalshi at exactly the price they carried into the opener. The Los Angeles Rams took the only real haircut, and they are still the favorite. The market spent all summer pricing this field on projection, and one Sunday of evidence was not enough to change its mind.
Super Bowl LXI Odds After Week 1: A Board That Barely Moved
This is the largest futures board in football, with more than $161M in lifetime volume spread across all 32 NFL teams, each of them quoted on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Prices below are as of September 14, 2026, alongside where each team traded on Kalshi before the Thursday opener.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Kalshi before Week 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 13% | 12% | 17% |
| Buffalo Bills | 9% | 10% | 8% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8% | 9% | 7% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 8% | 7% | 5% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8% | 7% | 8% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6% | 5% | 6% |
| Denver Broncos | 6% | 4% | 6% |
| Chicago Bears | 5% | 6% | 4% |
Twelve of the 32 teams moved at all on Kalshi. Nine of those moved by exactly one point. The two books sit within two points of each other on every team in the top eight, which is ordinary spread on a board this deep rather than a signal about either venue.
Why the Los Angeles Rams Still Lead the Super Bowl LXI Market After a 27-7 Loss
Los Angeles opened at home on Thursday night and lost 27-7 to San Francisco. The Rams gained 290 yards, turned the ball over twice, and converted 2 of 9 third downs. Matthew Stafford finished 15 of 25 for 155 yards with an interception. Blake Corum led the run game with 54 yards on 10 carries.
The board answered with the single largest move of Week 1: 17% down to 13% on Kalshi, and 17% down to 12% on Polymarket. Both books cut the same game by four or five points, which is two venues reading one night the same way.
Los Angeles is still the favorite anyway, and comfortably. Even after the cut, the Rams sit four points clear of Buffalo on Kalshi and five clear of San Francisco, the team that just beat them. The market is saying the loss was information about one night, not about the roster that earned the summer price. Fading a favorite on one bad Thursday is how a lot of money gets lost in September.
San Francisco Is the Only Real Super Bowl LXI Riser of Week 1
The 49ers were the biggest winner on the board, and it was not close. San Francisco went to Los Angeles and controlled the game: 379 total yards, 33:50 of possession, and 7 of 12 on third down. Brock Purdy was 25 of 34 for 205 yards and 3 touchdowns. Christian McCaffrey carried 10 times for 68 yards.
San Francisco went from 5% to 8% on Kalshi and from 3% to 7% on Polymarket. No other team gained more than two points on either venue. The Polymarket move is the louder one, because it carried the 49ers from a fringe price into the chase group in a single night.
The knock-on effect is positional. San Francisco now trades level with Seattle on both books after opening the week three points behind the Seahawks on Kalshi. That is a division reordering itself in one game, and the 2026 NFC West Division Winner odds are where it shows up first. For a view on whether Thursday holds up without championship variance attached, the San Francisco 49ers 2026 Win Total odds are the cleaner instrument.
The Super Bowl LXI Chase Group Barely Flinched
Buffalo won at Houston 36-31. Josh Allen went 20 of 29 for 334 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the Bills gained 409 yards without turning the ball over once. The reward was one point: 8% to 9% on Kalshi, 9% to 10% on Polymarket.
Baltimore did more and got less. The Ravens won at Indianapolis 41-23 behind 506 total yards, with Derrick Henry carrying 24 times for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns and Lamar Jackson going 17 of 25 for 324 yards. An 18-point road win bought exactly one point on Kalshi, 7% to 8%, and two on Polymarket, 7% to 9%.
Seattle beat New England 13-10 and did not move at all on Kalshi, holding at 8%, while Polymarket took a point off to 7%. The Seahawks won by forcing three Drake Maye interceptions rather than by moving the ball, gaining 285 yards on the night. Treating a three-point home win built on turnovers as close to nothing is the correct read.
The pattern across the chase group is consistent: winning did not pay. Only the favorite losing produced a move bigger than two points.
Chicago and the Giants Are the Super Bowl LXI Long Shots That Ticked Up
Chicago posted the loudest number of the weekend, winning 59-37 at Carolina on 552 total yards. D'Andre Swift ran 18 times for 124 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Caleb Williams was 21 of 29 for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bears moved from 4% to 5% on Kalshi and from 4% to 6% on Polymarket, the second-largest Polymarket gain on the board. For a team that scored 59 points, that is a market still asking to see the defense, and Carolina gaining 478 yards in the same game is why. The 2026 NFC North Division Winner odds and the Chicago Bears 2026 Season Win Total odds both carry that same question at a lower price of admission.
The New York Giants beat Dallas 28-20 with Jaxson Dart going 23 of 29 for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns. New York went from 2% to 3% on Kalshi and 1% to 3% on Polymarket. Dallas went the other way, 5% down to 3% on Kalshi, after being held to 244 total yards.
At the bottom, ten teams are bid at 1% on Kalshi. Six of them, Arizona, Atlanta, Cleveland, Miami, Tennessee, and the New York Jets, are bid at 0% on Polymarket. Zero there is a real quote on a live contract, not a missing market. It is the honest price for a league where most teams are already afterthoughts in September.
When the Super Bowl LXI Market Resolves
Each team's contract resolves Yes only if that team wins the 2027 pro football championship, and No in every other case. The board carries a listed resolution date of March 31, 2027, which is a backstop set after the championship game rather than the date of the game itself.
All 32 contracts settle off one event, which makes the full field readable as a single book. The 32 Kalshi prices sum to roughly 123% as of September 14, 2026. That overround is the venue's spread across a deep field, not an edge, and it is the reason a team-by-team comparison beats reading any single price as a clean probability.
Five Catalysts That Will Move Super Bowl LXI Odds Before December
- Denver at Kansas City:** The only Week 1 game still unplayed. Denver sits at 6% on Kalshi and 4% on Polymarket, Kansas City at 6% and 5%, and neither has moved since the opener.
- Whether San Francisco's Thursday was real:** The 49ers gained more than any other team on the board. A second road performance like it reprices the entire NFC West.
- The Rams' response:** Los Angeles managed 290 yards and two turnovers in the opener. One more showing like that takes the favorite tag off the top line.
- Derrick Henry's workload:** Henry carried 24 times for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns in the opener. That volume is both Baltimore's thesis and its single largest injury risk.
- The 1% band:** Ten teams are bid at 1% on Kalshi and six of those at 0% on Polymarket. That band is the cheapest place on the board to be early, and the first to move if a surprise start holds into October.
Super Bowl LXI Futures and the Division Boards Feeding It
The conference boards express a Week 1 view with less noise than the full 32-team field. The NFC Championship 2026-27 odds hold the Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks in one bracket, and the 2026 AFC Championship Winner odds do the same for Buffalo and Baltimore, the two teams that won by a combined 24 points and gained a combined three.
The verdict after one week is that the market believes it was right in August. Twenty teams did not move, the one team that got cut is still on top, and the only genuine reprice came from a 27-7 road win. Week 2 is where that conviction gets tested.