The 2026 NFC North division market prices the defending champion third. Chicago won the division at 11-6 in 2025 while Detroit finished fourth at 9-8 and missed the playoffs, and the board still makes the Lions the favorite. All four clubs have won this division at least once since 2021. Roughly $530K in cumulative volume trades on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the live board above ranks the current prices. The division is decided in Week 18 on January 10, 2027.
The 2026 NFC North board prices the defending champion third. Chicago went 11-6 in 2025, won the division, took the NFC's 2 seed, beat Green Bay 31-27 in the wild-card round, and lost 20-17 in overtime at home to the Rams. Detroit went 9-8, finished fourth, and missed the playoffs. The market still makes Detroit the favorite. That is not a pricing mistake. It is a bet on which 2025 results were repeatable, and the division's recent history argues for exactly that caution: Green Bay won the North in 2021, Minnesota in 2022, Detroit in 2023 and 2024, and Chicago in 2025. Four teams, five years, four different champions. Roughly $530K in cumulative volume trades across the four clubs on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the live board above carries the current cross-platform prices.
Chicago won the title while scoring 441 points and allowing 415, a +26 differential that ranked third among the division's four teams. The championship was built in the margins instead: the Bears went 7-4 in one-score games. They opened 0-2, including a 52-21 loss at Detroit in Week 2, then won 11 of their next 13.
Year two under Ben Johnson runs through Caleb Williams, who threw for 3,942 yards with 27 touchdowns against 7 interceptions in 2025. The turnover economy was excellent. The accuracy was not: 58.1% completions and a 90.1 rating on 568 attempts, with 24 sacks taken. The receiving room is different now. D.J. Moore was traded to Buffalo, which promotes Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III into the top two roles alongside D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai in the backfield, and safety Coby Bryant, signed for three years and $40M from Seattle, opens on injured reserve with a knee injury. Chicago has not won back-to-back division titles since 2005 and 2006, and Chicago's 2026 win total board is the cleaner read on whether last year's close-game record holds.
Detroit scored 481 points in 2025, tied for fourth-most in the NFL, and finished at +68 in point differential. That was the best mark in the division and 42 points better than the champion's, and it produced a fourth-place finish. The gap sits entirely in close games: the Lions went 3-5 in one-score finishes while Chicago went 7-4. Jared Goff threw for 4,564 yards with 34 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and a 105.5 rating on 68.0% completions. The 9-8 record was still Detroit's fourth straight winning season, following 9-8, 12-5, and 15-2.
Drew Petzing is the third Lions offensive coordinator in three seasons, hired after Ben Johnson left for Chicago following the 2024 season. The health picture is the live problem heading into Week 1. Isiah Pacheco, signed from Kansas City for one year and $1.8M to work behind Jahmyr Gibbs, opens on injured reserve with a back injury, and safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch both start on the reserve/PUP list. The scheduling detail worth knowing: Detroit swept Chicago in 2025, winning 52-21 in Week 2 and 19-16 in Week 18, and still finished two games behind them. Detroit closes 2026 with back-to-back division road games, at Chicago on January 3, 2027 and at Green Bay on January 10, 2027, and Detroit's 2026 playoff-berth market is the companion contract on the same regression thesis.
Green Bay finished 9-7-1 and took the NFC's 7 seed, but the shape of the season is what the market is pricing. The Packers lost their last four regular-season games, then lost 31-27 at Chicago in the wild-card round, five straight defeats to close the year. They also owned the best division record in the group at 4-2, including a season sweep of Detroit by 27-13 in Week 1 and 31-24 in Week 13.
Jordan Love played 15 games and threw for 3,381 yards with 23 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 101.2 rating. The defense is the reworked side. Jonathan Gannon replaced Jeff Hafley as coordinator after Hafley left to become Miami's head coach, and Javon Hargrave arrived from division-rival Minnesota to join a front that already has Micah Parsons and Devonte Wyatt. Parsons, acquired by trade from Dallas, opens on the reserve/PUP list with a knee injury that makes him ineligible to return before Week 5, and general manager Brian Gutekunst has said the team expects to be close once that four-game window closes. Running back Josh Jacobs is on the reserve/commissioner-exempt list with an initial court appearance on misdemeanor charges set for September 10, 2026. Green Bay opens Week 1 at Minnesota on September 13, 2026.
Minnesota is the bottom name on the board and the reason is one position. Kyler Murray sits atop the Vikings depth chart ahead of J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz, on a one-year deal worth $1.3M. Murray played five games in 2025 for a 3-14 Arizona team, throwing for 962 yards with 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and an 88.6 rating. McCarthy's 2025 line is the other half of the decision: 10 games, 1,632 yards, 11 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 57.6% completions, and a 72.6 rating.
Everything around the position got attention. Jauan Jennings signed for one year and $8M, Adam Thielen came back in a trade with Carolina, and Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson all return under Kevin O'Connell. The defense went the other direction: Hargrave left for Green Bay and Harrison Smith was released after 14 seasons. Minnesota still went 4-2 in the division in 2025, sweeping Detroit 27-24 in Week 9 and 23-10 in Week 17, and finished 9-8 with a +11 differential, the thinnest in the division. That combination is why the market treats the Vikings as live rather than dead, and Minnesota's 2026 win total moves on the same quarterback question this board does.
This market pays the team with the best overall regular-season record in the NFC North, not the best record inside the division. The 2025 season is the proof: Green Bay and Minnesota both went 4-2 against division opponents while Chicago went 2-4, and Chicago won the title on the strength of an 11-6 overall mark. If two or more teams tie on overall record, the NFL's published procedure applies in order, starting with head-to-head, then division record, then common games, then conference record. The division is settled in Week 18 on January 10, 2027, and the board carries a resolution deadline of January 11, 2027. Each team contract pays $1 per share if that club is declared division champion and $0 otherwise. If no champion is declared by January 17, 2027, the market resolves to "Other" under the platforms' published void rules.
Every path out of this division runs through the NFC Championship market and then the Super Bowl LXI winner board, where Seattle enters as the defending champion after beating New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX. For a contrast in market shape, the 2026 NFC West division board prices a division that sent three teams to the playoffs last January. Ben Johnson's repeat attempt is also a live input on the NFL Coach of the Year market, and Green Bay's 2026 win total is the cleanest place to trade the collapse-or-correction question on its own. The full slate of division races, win totals, and weekly game lines sits on the NFL hub.
Resolves to the team declared NFC North division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season, determined by the best overall won-lost-tied record among the four clubs across the seventeen-game schedule rather than by division record alone. If two or more teams tie on overall record, the NFL's published tiebreaker procedure applies in order, beginning with head-to-head results, then record within the division, then record in common games, then conference record. The regular season ends in Week 18 on January 10, 2027, and the market carries a resolution deadline of January 11, 2027. Each team contract pays $1 per share if that club wins the division; all other team contracts resolve to $0. The primary source of truth is official information from the NFL. If the season is canceled or no division champion is declared by January 17, 2027, the market resolves to "Other" under each platform's published void rules.
The live board above carries current cross-platform prices for all four clubs on Kalshi and Polymarket across roughly $530K in cumulative volume. The notable feature is that Detroit, which finished fourth in 2025 at 9-8, prices ahead of Chicago, which won the division at 11-6.
The Chicago Bears, at 11-6 under first-year head coach Ben Johnson. They took the NFC 2 seed, beat Green Bay 31-27 in the wild-card round, and lost 20-17 in overtime at home to the Rams in the divisional round.
It pays the team with the best overall regular-season record, not the best division record. Green Bay and Minnesota both went 4-2 in the division in 2025 and lost the title to a Chicago team that went 2-4 inside the division but 11-6 overall. Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker.
The division is decided in Week 18 on January 10, 2027, and the board carries a resolution deadline of January 11, 2027. If no champion is declared by January 17, 2027, the market resolves to "Other".
Week 1 on September 13, 2026 opens with Green Bay at Minnesota and Kyler Murray making his first start for the Vikings. After that, watch whether Chicago repeats its 7-4 one-score record and whether Micah Parsons comes off Green Bay's reserve/PUP list at the Week 5 earliest-return date.