Miami Dolphins 2026 playoff odds price a teardown, not a bounce-back. The Dolphins went 7-10 in 2025 with a -77 point differential, third in an AFC East that sent two teams to the postseason. Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are gone, Jeff Hafley is a first-year NFL head coach, and 13 of the 53 players who made the roster are rookies. Seven of sixteen AFC teams qualify. The contract carries roughly $62K in lifetime volume and settles in January 2027; the live board above has the current number.
Miami is not running the same roster back and hoping for better injury luck. The Dolphins tore it down. The quarterback and both receivers who defined the offense for four years are off the depth chart, Jeff Hafley is in his first season as an NFL head coach, and the 53 players who survived cutdown day include 13 rookies at an average age of 24.8. The market is pricing what is left: a very young team that has to climb over a 14-3 New England squad and a 12-5 Buffalo team just to enter the wild-card conversation.
Miami finished 2025 at 7-10 with 347 points scored and 424 allowed, a -77 differential and the tenth spot in the AFC standings. The offense was the tell. The Dolphins averaged 180.5 net passing yards per game and threw 18 interceptions, propped up by a run game that gained 2,044 yards at 4.7 a carry. De'Von Achane did most of that work, going for 1,350 yards on 238 carries at 5.7 per attempt with 8 touchdowns. A team that runs well and cannot throw loses close games, and Miami's season ended with a 38-10 loss at New England in Week 18.
The AFC East is the harder half of the problem. New England won the division at 14-3, took the AFC 2 seed, beat the Chargers and Texans at home, won 10-7 at Denver for the conference title and lost Super Bowl LX to Seattle 29-13. Buffalo went 12-5, won 27-24 at Jacksonville in the wild-card round and lost 33-30 at Denver a week later. That is two teams with January wins on the board that Miami has to pass inside its own division, and the Dolphins went 3-3 against the East. The 2026 AFC East division odds put the gap in one line: Buffalo trades at 57c, Miami at 2c. The last team into the 2025 AFC field, the Chargers, went 11-6. Miami finished four games behind that line.
Hafley inherited a roster that barely resembles the 2025 version. Tua Tagovailoa is in Atlanta. Jaylen Waddle is in Denver, which Miami visits on December 6, 2026. Bradley Chubb is in Buffalo, which Miami plays twice. Tyreek Hill is not on an NFL roster at all.
The quarterback depth chart that came out of cutdown day reads Malik Willis, then Kyle McCord, then Brady Cook, and not one of the three has started a full NFL season. Willis has appeared in 22 games across four years and has never thrown more than 61 passes in a season; his 2025 work in Green Bay was 30 of 35 for 422 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions across four appearances, efficient in a sample that small. Cook played five games for the Jets last season and threw 2 touchdowns against 7 interceptions at a 55.4 rating. McCord has not attempted an NFL pass. Behind them, Malik Washington and Jalen Tolbert are the top two receivers, and they combined for 64 catches and 520 yards in 2025.
Achane is the one asset that survived intact, and he is why the yes side is not dead money. A back averaging 5.7 yards a carry who also caught 67 passes keeps an offense on schedule while a new quarterback learns. The defense is young rather than thin, though Kenneth Grant opens the season on injured reserve, which leaves 22-year-old Jordan Phillips holding the interior. Chop Robinson is on the edge with Jordyn Brooks and Willie Gay at linebacker, in front of a unit that produced 39 sacks in 2025 while surrendering 424 points. Twenty-seven of the 53 players on this roster are in their first three seasons. Rosters this young usually improve across a year. The market's answer is that this one does not improve fast enough to matter by December.
Miami opens at Las Vegas on September 13, 2026, takes its bye in Week 6, and closes at New England on January 10, 2027. The crossover draws are the AFC West and the NFC North, which is close to the worst pairing available to a rebuilding team. That is Denver at 14-3, the Chargers at 11-6, Chicago at 11-6 and Green Bay at 9-7-1, with San Francisco, Cincinnati and Indianapolis filling the remaining slots.
Count it out and 9 of Miami's 17 games come against teams that reached the 2025 playoffs, four of them against New England and Buffalo. A wild card in this conference has generally required 10 wins. For the Dolphins that means sweeping or nearly sweeping the eight games against 2025 non-playoff teams and stealing two more from the other nine. The win-total ladder says the same thing from a different angle: the over-4 rung is the closest thing on that board to a coin flip, and double-digit wins trades in single digits. That arithmetic is the reason the number on the live board above sits where it does.
The contract asks whether Miami is one of the 2026-27 NFL playoff qualifiers. It resolves yes if the Dolphins hold one of the seven AFC seeds when the regular season ends and no if they do not. The field is set after Week 18, which for Miami is the January 10, 2027 game at New England. The Kalshi contract carries a close and expiration of January 25, 2027, which leaves room for the standings and any tiebreakers to be finalized. Nothing that happens once the postseason begins affects settlement.
The same rebuild prices differently across contracts. The Miami Dolphins 2026 win total puts a number on how many games this roster wins instead of a binary on the postseason, and it has drawn more than twice the volume of this board. For the two teams standing directly in Miami's way, compare the New England Patriots 2026 playoff odds and the Buffalo Bills 2026 playoff odds. Note that Buffalo, not New England, is the current chalk on the 2026 AFC Championship odds, which is a different read than the division board gives. Every Miami contract is collected on the Miami Dolphins hub, and the rest of the league sits on the NFL prediction markets hub.
Resolves yes if the Miami Dolphins are one of the qualifiers for the 2026-27 NFL playoffs, and no if they are not. Fourteen teams reach the postseason under the current format, seven from each conference: the four division winners plus three wild cards. Qualification is decided by the final 2026 regular-season standings, which are complete once Week 18 ends. Miami's regular season finishes at New England on January 10, 2027, and the Kalshi contract carries a close and expiration of January 25, 2027, leaving room for tiebreakers to be applied. Tiebreakers that decide a wild-card seed count toward qualification. How the Dolphins perform once the postseason begins does not affect settlement.
As of September 5, 2026, the Kalshi contract trades in single digits on the yes side, pricing Miami as one of the longest shots in the AFC. The live board above carries the current number, and the contract has traded roughly $62K in lifetime volume.
It settles on the final 2026 regular-season standings. Miami closes the regular season at New England on January 10, 2027, and the Kalshi contract carries a close and expiration of January 25, 2027.
The contract trades on Kalshi as a single yes/no on whether Miami is a 2026-27 NFL playoff qualifier. No Polymarket book has been paired to it, so Kalshi carries all of the roughly $62K in lifetime volume.
Miami went 7-10 in 2025 with a -77 point differential and lost Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle off the roster, leaving Malik Willis atop a quarterback room with no full-season NFL starter. The Dolphins also have to pass New England, which went 14-3 and reached Super Bowl LX, and a 12-5 Buffalo team inside their own division.
Watch how long Malik Willis holds the job with Kyle McCord behind him, then the November 1, 2026 home game against New England and the November 22, 2026 trip to Buffalo. With 9 of 17 games against 2025 playoff teams, the record through the Week 6 bye sets the ceiling.