The Miami Dolphins 2026 win total is a teardown priced as a teardown. Miami went 7-10 in 2025 with a -77 point differential, then lost Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in one offseason and handed the roster to first-year head coach Jeff Hafley. The market is not one yes-or-no question but a 17-rung Kalshi ladder carrying roughly $158K in lifetime volume, and it resolves January 18, 2027. The live board above carries the current price on all 17 rungs.
Miami tore the roster down and the market marked it down harder than any other team's. The Dolphins finished 7-10 in 2025 with 347 points scored and 424 allowed, then lost their starting quarterback and both starting receivers in a single offseason. The Dolphins 2026 win total does not trade as a single contract. It trades as a 17-rung Kalshi ladder with roughly $158K of lifetime volume behind it, and the shape of that ladder is the most honest statement anyone has made about this team.
A win total is one number sold 17 different ways. Each rung is its own yes-or-no contract, and Kalshi's rule text on every leg reads the same way: it pays if Miami wins at least that many games. The 5+ ticket cashes on five wins or more, not six. That is why the board renders as a descending staircase instead of a candidate list, and why the shape of the staircase matters more than any single quote.
As of September 5, 2026 the ladder crosses even money at the 4+ rung, which sits at 51c. The 5+ rung is 38c and 3+ is 67c. That puts the implied line right at four wins: a 51% chance Miami gets to four, a 38% chance it reaches five, and only a 13% gap between them. Add every rung together and the board implies about 4.3 wins, the lowest of all 32 NFL team ladders on our boards, a hair under Arizona at 4.4 and nearly two wins under a New York Jets team that went 3-14 last season and now prices at 6.0. The Los Angeles Rams top the same scan at 12.0.
Liquidity sits exactly where the question is. Over the last 24 hours the 4+ and 5+ rungs each turned over about $1.4K and 3+ about $1.1K, while 6+ and 7+ split a few hundred dollars between them and everything from 8+ upward went untraded. Those are 24-hour figures, not cumulative; the $158K is lifetime across the full ladder. Polymarket does not list a Miami win total, so every rung shows a single Kalshi price and there is no cross-platform spread to read on this board.
Miami did not earn last place from last season's results alone. The 7-10 finish came with 20.4 points per game, 24.9 allowed, 315.6 total yards per game, 18 interceptions thrown and a -4 turnover margin. That is bad, not historic. New England won the AFC East at 14-3 and reached Super Bowl LX, Buffalo went 12-5, Miami finished -77, and the Jets bottomed out at 3-14 and -203.
What dropped the number nearly three wins below that baseline was the teardown. Tua Tagovailoa is now on the Atlanta roster and factors into the Atlanta Falcons 2026 win total instead. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both off the Miami roster. Jeff Hafley, hired out of Green Bay's defensive staff, has never been an NFL head coach.
ESPN's depth chart now lists Malik Willis first at quarterback, Kyle McCord second and Brady Cook third, a room that has turned over since August. Willis went 30 of 35 for 422 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions across four appearances as Green Bay's backup in 2025, a 145.5 passer rating on a sample far too small to price a season around. The receivers in front of him are Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert and rookie Caleb Douglas out of Texas Tech. That leaves De'Von Achane carrying the offense: 238 carries for 1,350 yards at 5.7 a pop with 8 rushing scores, plus 67 catches for 488 yards and 4 more touchdowns in 16 games last season.
Hafley is a defensive coach, so the defense is where any overperformance has to come from. That makes Kenneth Grant the most underrated line on this board: the second-year Michigan tackle is on injured reserve, and Zach Sieler is listed questionable. Chop Robinson, Jordyn Brooks, Josh Uche and Willie Gay Jr. are what is left to hold up a unit that allowed 24.9 points a game last year. Rookie corner Chris Johnson out of San Diego State and rookie tackle Kadyn Proctor out of Alabama are being asked to play immediately.
The schedule does the rest. Miami opens at Las Vegas on September 13, 2026, then goes to San Francisco, hosts Kansas City and travels to Minnesota before the Week 6 bye. The back half is unkind to a warm-weather rebuild: at Buffalo on November 22, at Denver on December 6, at Green Bay on December 20, Buffalo at home on January 3 and the finale at New England on January 10, 2027. Three cold-weather road trips inside the final eight weeks, plus four games against Buffalo and New England, who finished a combined 26-8 last season, is the structural case for the low rungs. The 2026 AFC East division odds price the same read from the other direction.
Every rung settles on Miami's official win count across the 2026 NFL regular season. Kalshi's contract language is explicit on each leg: the market resolves YES if the Dolphins win at least that many games in the 2026-27 regular season, and to zero otherwise. The 17-game schedule ends with the January 10, 2027 game at New England, and every rung carries a listed close and expiration of January 18, 2027. Playoff results do not count toward the total. Ties are recorded separately from wins in the official NFL standings, so a tie does not advance a rung: a 4-12-1 season settles 4+ YES and 5+ NO.
The division context sits next door. The Buffalo Bills 2026 win total and the New England Patriots 2026 win total price the two teams Miami plays four times between them, and the New York Jets 2026 win total is the only AFC East board trading anywhere near this one. For the season-long picture, the Super Bowl LXI champion odds carry the championship number for all 32 teams. Our editorial take on this ladder is at Dolphins Win Total 2026: Miami Priced Below the 3-14 Jets, and every NFL board lives on the football prediction markets hub.
Each rung of the ladder resolves on the Miami Dolphins official win count across the 2026 NFL regular season. Kalshi's rule text on every leg reads the same way: the contract resolves YES if the Dolphins win at least that many games in the 2026-27 regular season, and to zero otherwise, so the 5+ rung pays on five wins or more. The 17-game schedule ends with the January 10, 2027 game at New England, and every rung carries a listed close and expiration of January 18, 2027. Regular-season results are the only results that count; playoff games do not. Ties are recorded separately from wins in the official NFL standings and do not advance a rung, so a 4-12-1 season settles the 4+ contract YES and the 5+ contract NO. If the season is shortened, the thresholds settle against the official adjusted standings per platform rules.
As of September 5, 2026 the Kalshi ladder crosses even money at the 4+ rung at 51c, with 5+ at 38c and 3+ at 67c, which puts the implied line at four wins. The live board above shows the current price on all 17 rungs.
Each rung is a separate Kalshi contract that resolves YES if Miami wins at least that many regular-season games, so the 5+ ticket pays on five wins or more. There are 17 rungs, one for every possible threshold on the schedule.
It settles on Miami's final regular-season win count after the 17-game schedule ends at New England on January 10, 2027, with a listed close and expiration of January 18, 2027. Playoff results do not count.
The ladder trades on Kalshi under the KXNFLWINS-27MIA series, and roughly $158K in lifetime volume sits across its 17 rungs. Polymarket does not list a Miami win total, so every rung shows a single price and there is no cross-platform spread.
Watch whether Malik Willis holds the job past the September 13 opener at Las Vegas, De'Von Achane's workload after 1,838 scrimmage yards in 2025, and Kenneth Grant's return from injured reserve. The three cold-weather road trips at Buffalo, Denver and Green Bay all land inside the final eight weeks.