The 2028 Presidential Election market is the single largest political contract on Prediction Genius, carrying roughly $690M in cumulative cross-platform volume across Kalshi and Polymarket. It is the headline question that every other 2028 contract feeds into: not who wins a party's nomination and not which party takes the White House, but which named person is sworn in as the next president. Roughly 38 candidates from both parties trade on one board, and the live board above ranks every one of them by current cross-platform price. The market resolves on November 7, 2028.
The 2028 Presidential Election is the top-of-funnel contract for the entire 2028 cycle. Every other market on the cycle, the Democratic nominee race, the Republican nominee race, the party-control question, and the head-to-head matchups, ultimately settles into this one question: who occupies the Oval Office on January 20, 2029. It is the highest-volume political market on the platform at roughly $690M in cumulative cross-platform trading, and it spans both parties on a single board, so a price is a bet on a specific person winning the presidency regardless of which party they run under. The live board above ranks all of them in real time across Kalshi and Polymarket.
That single-board structure is what makes this contract worth reading closely. A nominee market only tells you who a party puts forward. A party market only tells you which color wins. The winner board prices both at once, which means the implied probabilities already bake in each candidate's odds of clearing their primary and then carrying a general election. When a name moves here, it is moving on the full path to the presidency, not a single step of it.
The top of the 2028 Presidential Election board splits across both parties. Vice President J.D. Vance leads the field, the natural consequence of being the sitting vice president in a party that has not yet held its primary. An incumbent-adjacent candidate typically anchors the early board, and Vance is trading as the closest thing this cycle has to a frontrunner. His price is effectively two bets in one: that he clears a Republican primary as the establishment-backed heir, and that the GOP holds the White House.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio sits just behind him, the second Republican in the top tier and the name traders reach for when they want exposure to a Vance stumble without leaving the party. Rubio's standing reflects a long Washington resume and broad name recognition, and on a single-board market he functions as the natural hedge against the frontrunner. The two Republicans at the top reflect a market that currently prices the GOP as holding the structural high ground, though that read is a function of the open Democratic field as much as Republican strength.
California Governor Gavin Newsom is the leading Democrat and the third name in the top tier. Newsom has spent the cycle as the most-discussed Democratic possibility, and the board reflects that: he carries the highest implied probability of any Democrat on the winner market. His position is a long way from a lock, but it is the clearest signal of where Democratic consensus is forming. The gap between Newsom and the Republican leaders is the market's read on the current partisan tilt, and it is the number to watch as the cycle develops. For the party-by-party view, the 2028 Democratic nominee odds and the 2028 Republican nominee market break out each field on its own board.
Below the top three sits a chase tier that is almost entirely Democratic, which is what an open-field party looks like on a prediction market: probability spread thin across many plausible names rather than concentrated on one. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Jon Ossoff trade neck and neck as the next names down, representing the progressive and the swing-state-electability lanes respectively. Former Vice President Kamala Harris follows, carrying the name recognition of a recent nominee without the frontrunner status that usually comes with it.
The long tail is where the 2028 Presidential Election market shows its breadth. Senator Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Maryland Governor Wes Moore round out a deep Democratic bench, each a governor or senator with a credible case and a single-digit price. On the Republican side, Donald Trump Jr., Ron DeSantis, and Tucker Carlson anchor the secondary names, the field traders reach for if the establishment lane cracks. The board also carries a set of celebrity and outsider long shots, from Dwayne Johnson to Michelle Obama to Elon Musk, that trade as lottery tickets rather than serious contenders.
The breadth matters because the chase tier is where the cross-platform spread tends to be widest. Thinly traded names move on small flows, so Kalshi and Polymarket can carry meaningfully different prices on the same candidate, and that divergence is often the first place a shift in the race shows up. Because both parties live on the same winner board, the market is the cleanest single picture of the entire 2028 race, and the 2028 presidential party odds translate that field into a simpler red-or-blue read.
The market resolves to the candidate who wins the November 7, 2028 general election. The winner is determined by the Electoral College, where 270 of 538 electoral votes are required to secure the presidency, not by the national popular vote. That distinction matters on this contract: a candidate can lead the national polling and still settle at $0 if the electoral map breaks the other way, which is exactly the scenario the swing-state names in the field are priced against. Each candidate contract pays $1 per share if that person wins and $0 if they do not. Resolution follows the certified Electoral College outcome, with the president-elect inaugurated on January 20, 2029. If a leading candidate withdraws, is replaced, or the result is contested past the platforms' settlement windows, each exchange applies its own published edge-case rules for delayed or voided resolution, so traders holding through a contested count should read both platforms' terms before the election.
The winner board is the hub the rest of the cycle feeds into. For the party-specific races, compare the 2028 Democratic nominee odds and the 2028 Republican nominee market, which isolate each field before the general. The 2028 presidential party odds collapse all 38 names into the red-or-blue question, and the 2028 presidential matchup market prices specific head-to-head pairings once the nominees take shape. For the full slate of races, the politics prediction markets hub tracks every election, legislative, and policy contract on the platform, and the Genius Staff analysis page collects the team's ongoing coverage of the 2028 cycle.
Resolves to the candidate who wins the November 7, 2028 United States presidential election, as determined by the Electoral College result (270 of 538 electoral votes required), not the national popular vote. Each candidate contract pays $1 per share if that person wins the presidency and $0 otherwise. Settlement follows the certified Electoral College outcome ahead of the January 20, 2029 inauguration. If a leading candidate withdraws or is replaced, or if the result is contested past a platform's settlement window, Kalshi and Polymarket each apply their own published rules for delayed or voided resolution.
The live board above ranks all roughly 38 candidates by current cross-platform price on Kalshi and Polymarket. J.D. Vance leads the field, followed by Marco Rubio and Gavin Newsom, with prices updating in real time as markets move.
It resolves to the winner of the November 7, 2028 general election, determined by the Electoral College, with the president-elect inaugurated on January 20, 2029. Each candidate contract pays $1 per share if that person wins.
The contract trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with roughly $690M in cumulative cross-platform volume. The live board above compares prices on every candidate across both platforms so you can see where they diverge.
Vice President J.D. Vance is the current favorite on the board, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and California Governor Gavin Newsom rounding out the top tier. See the live board above for the latest implied probabilities.
Watch the early-2028 Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, which historically drive the biggest repricing, plus any consolidation in the open Democratic field and the cross-platform spread between Kalshi and Polymarket on the top names.