Clarity Act 2026 Odds Collapse After the Senate's 49-50 Cloture Vote

The Clarity Act 2026 contract lost nearly three-quarters of its value in a single session. On September 15, 2026, the Senate failed to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R.3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, by a vote of 49 to 50. The Polymarket contract asking whether the bill becomes law in 2026 opened that day at 18c and closed at 5c. Four weeks later it trades at 6c, with roughly $24M in lifetime volume behind it.

Clarity Act 2026 Odds Today

As of October 13, 2026, the contract trades at 6c on Polymarket, with a 6c bid and a 7c offer. That implies roughly a 6% chance the bill is signed into law by December 31, 2026. There is no Kalshi counterpart on the board, so Polymarket is the only price.

What the Clarity Act 2026 Price Did on September 15

The daily record shows how much of the remaining probability the vote removed. The contract had traded as high as 35c on both September 13 and September 14 before closing those sessions at 22c and 18c. On the day of the vote it opened at 18c, touched 21c, and closed at its low of 5c.

It has not recovered. The contract closed between 5c and 7c on every recorded day from September 16 through October 12, and spent the first eleven days of October at exactly 5c before ticking to 6c on October 12. The market treated the vote as close to decisive for 2026, even though the Senate has a procedural route to try again.

Where the Clarity Act 2026 Bill Stands After the Cloture Vote

The official record, from the government's bill status data, runs as follows. H.R.3633 was introduced on May 29, 2025 and reported by the House Agriculture and Financial Services committees on June 23, 2025. The House passed it on July 17, 2025 by 294 to 134.

In the Senate, the Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee reported the bill on June 1, 2026 with an amendment in the nature of a substitute, and it was placed on the legislative calendar. A cloture motion on the motion to proceed was filed on August 8, 2026. The September 15 vote failed 49 to 50, and Senator Tillis entered a motion to reconsider that vote the same day. That motion is the pending item.

The Remaining Steps for the Clarity Act 2026 Contract

The contract pays YES only on enactment by December 31, 2026, which leaves a specific sequence to complete. Cloture on legislation requires 60 votes, and the September vote reached 49, a gap of 11. If the Senate reconsiders and invokes cloture, it still has to proceed to the bill and pass it.

Because the Senate committee text replaces the House text entirely, a Senate-passed version would differ from the bill the House approved in July 2025. The House would then have to pass the Senate version, or the two chambers would have to reconcile them, before the bill could be sent for signature. Each step has to clear before the year ends.

The November 3, 2026 midterms sit in the middle of that window. Floor time in the weeks around an election is limited, which places most of any remaining path in the post-election session.

How the Clarity Act 2026 Market Priced the Summer

The vote was not the only move. The contract spent early August in the 20s and 30s, closing at 34c on August 1 after trading as high as 38c, then slid to 16c by August 6. It rebounded to 21c on August 8, the day the cloture motion was filed, and touched 28c on August 21.

A second slide followed on August 24 and 25, taking the contract to 14c, where it sat almost without movement until early September. The run-up to the vote briefly lifted it back into the 20s and 30s intraday before the September 15 result reset it to single digits.

When the Clarity Act 2026 Market Resolves

The contract resolves on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It pays YES if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has passed both chambers and been signed into law by then, and NO otherwise. The primary resolution source is the Congress.gov legislation tracker for H.R.3633, with other official U.S. government sources and credible reporting as backup. A successful cloture vote or Senate passage alone does not resolve the contract YES.

Key Factors for the Clarity Act 2026 Market

• The motion to reconsider:** entered by Senator Tillis on September 15, 2026, it is the procedural route to a second cloture vote.
• The 60-vote threshold:** the first attempt reached 49, so a second attempt needs 11 additional votes in favor.
• The Senate substitute:** the committee text differs from the House-passed bill, so the House has to act again before any signature.
• The midterm calendar:** the November 3 elections limit floor time, concentrating any action in the post-election session.
• The deadline:** enactment after December 31, 2026 resolves the contract NO even if the bill later becomes law.