Clarity Act 2026 asks whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers and signed into law by December 31, 2026. The bill passed the House 294-134 in July 2025, cleared the Senate Banking Committee in June 2026, then failed a Senate cloture vote 49-50 on September 15, 2026. Roughly $24M has traded on the contract. Current pricing is on the live board above.
Clarity Act 2026 is a market on one piece of legislation reaching one finish line. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, H.R.3633, is the House's crypto market structure bill, and the contract pays YES only if it passes both chambers and is signed into law by December 31, 2026. Roughly $24M has traded on it, all on Polymarket, which makes it one of the larger single-contract policy markets on the board.
The official record is short and it explains the price. H.R.3633 was introduced on May 29, 2025 and reported by both the House Agriculture and Financial Services committees on June 23, 2025. The full House passed it on July 17, 2025 by a vote of 294 to 134, a wide bipartisan margin.
The Senate is where it has slowed. The Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee reported the bill on June 1, 2026 with an amendment in the nature of a substitute, and it was placed on the Senate legislative calendar. A cloture motion on the motion to proceed was filed on August 8, 2026. On September 15, 2026, cloture on that motion was not invoked, 49 to 50. Senator Tillis entered a motion to reconsider the vote the same day, which keeps the procedural door open without moving the bill.
Reading the contract against that record shows how many steps remain. Cloture on legislation requires 60 votes, and the September vote produced 49 in favor, so the gap is not one or two senators. After cloture on the motion to proceed, the Senate still has to take up and pass the bill itself.
The substitute amendment adds another step. Because the Senate committee replaced the House text, a Senate-passed bill would not match what the House approved in July 2025. The House would have to pass the Senate's version, or the chambers would have to reconcile the two, before anything reaches the President. Only a signature by December 31, 2026 resolves the contract YES.
The calendar compresses all of that. The November 3, 2026 midterm elections fall in the middle of the window, which leaves the post-election session as the realistic period for floor time. A YES outcome requires the Senate to find roughly 11 more votes than it produced in September, pass the bill, and clear the House again inside that stretch.
The contract resolves on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It pays YES if H.R.3633 has passed both chambers and been signed into law by then, and NO otherwise. The primary resolution source is the Congress.gov legislation tracker for H.R.3633, with other official United States government information and credible reporting as backup.
The digital asset markets the bill would regulate trade alongside it: the Bitcoin 2026 high odds, the Ethereum 2026 high odds and the Bitcoin price on January 1, 2027 all carry the price side of the same policy question. On the political calendar that shapes the bill's Senate path, the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee odds and the 2028 Republican presidential nominee odds track the longer horizon. More coverage on the politics and crypto hubs.
Resolves YES if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and NO otherwise. The primary resolution source is the Congress.gov legislation tracker for H.R.3633, supplemented by other official U.S. government information and credible reporting. Passage by one chamber, a successful cloture vote, or a conference agreement without enactment does not resolve the contract YES. A signature after the deadline resolves NO even if the bill becomes law later.
The live board above carries the current Polymarket price on a contract with roughly $24M in lifetime volume. The market has priced enactment by year-end as unlikely since the September 15, 2026 Senate cloture vote failed 49-50.
December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves YES only if H.R.3633 has passed both chambers and been signed into law by then, using the Congress.gov tracker as the primary source.
It passed the House 294-134 on July 17, 2025. In the Senate, the Banking Committee reported it on June 1, 2026, but cloture on the motion to proceed failed 49-50 on September 15, 2026.
Polymarket lists the contract, with roughly $24M in lifetime volume. No Kalshi counterpart sits on this board.
Watch for action on the motion to reconsider that Senator Tillis entered on September 15, 2026. A second cloture vote reaching 60 is the first step any path to a December 31 signature requires.