The 2028 presidential head-to-head market prices exact outcomes: 32 Kalshi contracts on which named nominee beats which named opponent, with eight Democrats paired against JD Vance or Marco Rubio. Each contract needs both nominations and the general election to land, and every one resolves No if the Republican nominee is someone else. The board has about 150K contracts of lifetime volume. The live board above ranks the current price on every pairing; the election is November 7, 2028.
The 2028 presidential head-to-head market asks the narrowest question on the 2028 board: not who wins, and not which pairing makes the ballot, but which named nominee beats which named opponent. Kalshi lists 32 contracts covering 16 pairings, eight Democrats against two Republicans, JD Vance and Marco Rubio, in both directions. Each one pays only if all three legs land: the Democrat is nominated, the Republican is nominated, and the named winner takes the presidency. The board has about 150K contracts of lifetime volume and trades on Kalshi only. The live board above ranks the current price on every contract; this page covers how the board is built, what it implies, and how it settles.
Every pairing appears twice. "Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance" and "JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom" are separate contracts, so the two prices together approximate the market's odds that Newsom and Vance are the nominees at all, and the split between them is the market's read on who wins that race. That is the difference from the 2028 presidential matchup market, which prices only whether a given pairing reaches the general election.
The Democratic side covers Jon Ossoff, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom, James Talarico, Kamala Harris, Andy Beshear, Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg. The Republican side is Vance or Rubio, nobody else. That is the board's biggest structural fact: if the Republican nominee is anyone other than those two, every contract here resolves No. The 2028 Republican nominee market prices other names, including Ron DeSantis, whose path this board does not cover.
The Democratic side of this board gained two fresh results on November 3, 2026. CBS News projected that Ossoff won a second Senate term in Georgia over Republican Rep. Mike Collins, in a state President Trump carried in 2024. The AP called the Texas Senate race for Talarico over Ken Paxton; PBS NewsHour reported he is the first Democrat to win a Texas Senate election since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
Ossoff's best line moved overnight. The "Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance" contract closed at 4% on April 10 and held at 9% for most of October in the Genius price history. Overnight on November 4, as the midterm results came in, it printed 15% at 12:41 a.m. ET and 16% at 1:59 a.m. ET before settling back near 11% by 6:10 a.m. ET. Ossoff is also the top name on the 2028 Democratic nominee market as of November 4, which is why his pairings sit near the top here.
Liquidity is the caveat on everything else. Most of the 32 contracts have traded only a few thousand contracts or fewer, quotes on the long-shot pairings sit near the floor, and "Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio" had no recorded volume on Kalshi as of November 4. Read the lower half of the board as a rough ordering rather than a precise probability.
Each contract is a Kalshi combination market. "Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance" pays Yes only if Ossoff is the Democratic nominee, Vance is the Republican nominee, and Ossoff wins the 2028 presidential election, with each leg judged under Kalshi's nominee and presidential-winner rulesets. If any leg resolves No or becomes impossible, the contract resolves No at once, so most of the board will settle at the 2028 conventions rather than on Election Day. The presidential election is on November 7, 2028, and Kalshi lists January 20, 2029 as the latest settlement date.
This board is the last link in a chain of 2028 contracts. Start with the 2028 presidential election odds for the named winner, the 2028 winning party market for the party read, and the 2028 Democratic VP nominee odds for the ticket. For the wider slate, browse the politics prediction markets hub.
Each contract is a Kalshi combination market that resolves Yes only if all three components occur: the named Democrat is the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, the named Republican is the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, and the named winner wins the 2028 presidential election. Components follow Kalshi's Democratic Nominee and Republican Nominee (PRESNOM) and Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON) rulesets. If any component resolves No or becomes impossible, the contract resolves No immediately. The 2028 presidential election is on November 7, 2028, and Kalshi lists January 20, 2029 as the latest settlement date. Each winning contract pays $1 per share.
On the morning of November 4, 2026, "Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance" was the top contract, quoted at 10% bid and 11% ask on Kalshi. The live board above ranks all 32 contracts by current price.
The election is on November 7, 2028, and Kalshi lists January 20, 2029 as the latest settlement date. Most contracts settle earlier, resolving No as soon as one of their nominees is ruled out.
Only on Kalshi, which lists 32 combination contracts across 16 pairings. Lifetime volume is about 150K contracts.
The matchup market pays if a pairing such as Newsom vs Vance reaches the general election. This board also requires the named candidate to win, so each pairing is split into two contracts.
The Republican field first, since a nominee other than JD Vance or Marco Rubio sends all 32 contracts to No. Then the Democratic primary, where Jon Ossoff and James Talarico enter 2027 fresh off Senate wins on November 3, 2026.