Home Run Derby 2026 Pick: Junior Caminero Is the Value Over Schwarber

The pick for the 2026 Home Run Derby is Junior Caminero, and the market is handing him out at a discount. Kyle Schwarber is the chalk at 22c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with Caminero a close second at 18c across roughly $305K in combined volume. Schwarber leads the majors with 32 home runs and gets to swing in his home park. Caminero was the man still standing in the final round last July, he is a full decade younger, and his bat is hotter right now. Four cents is not a wide enough gap.

Home Run Derby 2026 Odds Today: Schwarber the Chalk, Caminero the Value

This is a rare two-book agreement. Kalshi and Polymarket sit within a cent of each other on all eight hitters, so there is no cross-platform spread to arbitrage. The edge here is not a mispriced number, it is a ranking call. In an eight-man single-elimination bracket, the flat base rate for any single hitter is 12.5%. The market gives the top of the board a premium on top of that, pricing Schwarber at 22c implied and Caminero at 18c.

The whole question is whether Schwarber deserves a 4c edge over the reigning runner-up. The market is paying up for the home crowd and the MLB-leading home run total. What it is discounting is that Caminero got deeper into this exact event twelve months ago than Schwarber ever has, and he is doing it while carrying the hotter bat into Philadelphia. At 18c, the price is treating the 2025 finalist like the fourth-best story in his own field. He is not.

Junior Caminero Home Run Derby Pick: Why 18c Is the Play

Start with the platform season. Caminero is hitting .279 with 28 home runs, fourth-most in the majors, and 59 RBI across 94 games. The Statcast profile is the part that matters for an exhibition built on raw power: a 93.1 mph average exit velocity, a 51.5% hard-hit rate, and a barrel rate near 13%. He homered in six straight games earlier this season, the youngest player since at least 1900 to do it, and he was voted the American League starting third baseman for the All-Star Game the Derby precedes. He turned 23 on July 5, one week before he steps into the box in Philadelphia.

Now the Derby resume, which is the piece the 18c price ignores. Caminero was the 2025 runner-up. He hit 21 in the first round, 18 in regulation plus 3 in bonus time, beat Byron Buxton in the semifinals, and reached the final before falling 18-15 to Cal Raleigh. He is the only hitter in this field who went bomb-for-bomb into a final round last year. Pairing that comfort with a career-best power season is exactly the setup that wins this event. Paying 18c for it is the value.

Why the Home Run Derby 2026 Chalk on Schwarber Is a Fade at 22c

Schwarber's case is real, which is why he is the chalk. He leads the majors with 32 home runs, he swings in his home park, and his all-or-nothing left-handed stroke is built for this kind of night. But the 22c price leans on the home-field story more than the track record supports. This is Schwarber's third Home Run Derby. He was a finalist in 2018, where he lost to Bryce Harper, and he went out in the first round in 2022, losing to Albert Pujols. Two appearances, zero titles.

The home crowd also cuts both ways. Expectation and adrenaline are an edge in the first round and a tax by the third, and Schwarber is 33 years old swinging a max-effort uppercut that burns energy fast. Paying 22c for a hitter who has never actually won this event, when the 18c hitter next to him was launching balls in the final round a year ago, is the fade. The market has the two names in the right order but the gap backwards.

How the New Home Run Derby Format Favors Caminero

The 2026 event uses a swings-capped format, a real change from the timed rounds of recent years. Each hitter gets 20 swings in Round 1, 15 in Round 2, and 15 in the final. That shifts the whole event toward efficiency. When the constraint is total swings rather than a clock, the hitters who barrel the most balls per cut gain, and the hitters who need a long hot streak to run up a timed number lose their cushion.

That is Caminero's edge stated in numbers. A 51.5% hard-hit rate and a 93.1 mph average exit velocity mean a larger share of his 20 swings clear the fence than almost anyone else in the field. Youth compounds it. Caminero at 23 is a decade younger than both Schwarber and Harper, who are 33, and bat speed and fresh legs hold up better across three rounds of full-effort swings late into the night. Citizens Bank Park is one of the more homer-friendly yards in the majors, which lifts the entire field, but it rewards a hitter who drives the ball to all fields rather than one who lives on a single pull lane.

The Rest of the Home Run Derby 2026 Field: Murakami, Harper, and the Long Shots

Munetaka Murakami at 16c is the live third option, a genuine 50-homer bat with the raw power to win any single round. Jac Caglianone at 13c and Jordan Walker at 11c to 12c are the young-power lottery tickets, high-ceiling swings priced for a first-round upset rather than a title run. Bryce Harper at 10c is the field's only former Derby champion, having won it in 2018, which makes 10c interesting on reputation even though his raw output this year trails the top of the board. Ben Rice at 10c and Willson Contreras at 6c round out the eight.

For traders who want the deeper card rather than the outright, the market also prices which hitters reach the Derby final and the semifinal reach board, plus prop-style contracts on the most home runs in a single round and the highest single-round total. Caminero is a rational buy on the finals and round-leader boards for the same reasons he is the outright pick.

When the Home Run Derby 2026 Winner Market Resolves

The Derby is Monday, July 13, 2026, first pitch 8 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, streamed on Netflix. Eight hitters, a single-elimination bracket, three rounds. The winner market resolves to the hitter who wins the final round that night. There is no multi-day window and no settlement ambiguity. By roughly 10 p.m. ET the 18c Caminero ticket is either a winner or it is not, and both Kalshi and Polymarket settle to the official MLB result.

Key Home Run Derby Catalysts for Caminero at Citizens Bank Park

• Bracket seeding:** A first-round draw against a lower-output hitter such as Contreras at 6c or Rice at 10c gives Caminero a cleaner path than colliding with Schwarber early.
• First-round swing count:** The 20-swing cap rewards barrel efficiency. Watch whether Caminero banks bonus swings through distance, as he did for 3 extra in the 2025 first round.
• Fatigue across three rounds:** At 23, Caminero holds bat speed deeper into the night than the 33-year-old chalk swinging in front of a home crowd.
• Home-field weight on the Phillies:** Schwarber and Harper carry hometown expectation that the road hitters do not, an edge early and a burden late.
• Park factor:** The short-porch profile at Citizens Bank Park lifts every swing, and Caminero's all-fields power plays to any part of the yard.