The 2026 Home Run Derby semifinals field is decided at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on July 13, and this market asks one thing of each of the eight sluggers: finish in the top four of the opening round to advance. Phillies pair Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper swing in their home park, and White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami brings his NPB power to a field Polymarket prices for four semifinal spots. The live board above ranks the current order; the field is set the night of July 13, 2026.
The 2026 Home Run Derby is a bracket, and this market only cares about the first cut. Eight hitters take the opening round at Citizens Bank Park on July 13, the four with the most home runs move on to the semifinals, and each contract here pays out if its hitter is one of those four. That turns a power-hitting exhibition into eight separate questions, and Polymarket has spent the days before the event sorting them, the same read that drives the outright 2026 Home Run Derby winner odds.
Junior Caminero sits at the top of the board. The Rays third baseman carries 28 home runs and a .931 OPS into the break and spent the first half in the American League MVP conversation, including a six-game home run streak that made him the youngest player since at least 1900 to homer in six straight games. He is 22, he lifts the ball to the pull side as well as anyone in the field, and Citizens Bank Park is one of the friendliest home run parks in baseball.
Kyle Schwarber is the name the raw numbers point to. He leads the entire field with 32 home runs and a .929 OPS, he is doing it in his home ballpark, and few hitters in the sport pair his exit velocity with his pull-side loft. The board does not have him first, which is the tension worth sitting with: the Derby rewards repeatable, low-launch batting-practice power, and Schwarber's game-power profile is arguably the best fit of the eight.
Bryce Harper is the other Phillie, a two-time National League MVP swinging in front of the crowd that watches him every night. Harper sits at 20 home runs and a .864 OPS, more of a line-drive hitter than a launcher, but home-field feel and a short right-field porch are real edges in an event decided by a few swings. Jordan Walker rounds out the board's upper tier. The Cardinals outfielder is hitting .294 with 22 home runs and 74 RBI, and at his size he generates the kind of easy carry that plays up in a Derby setting.
Ben Rice is the value the board is discounting. The Yankees hitter ranks second in the field with 29 home runs and leads all eight participants with a .968 OPS, and his longest ball this year traveled 433 feet, yet Polymarket prices him near the back of the group. A bat that far up the home run leaderboard sitting that low on the board is the clearest gap between the numbers and the market.
Munetaka Murakami is the field's wild card. The White Sox rookie signed a two-year, $34M deal out of Japan's NPB, where he set the single-season home run record for a Japanese-born player with 56 and won three Central League MVPs. He is the second Japanese-born hitter to appear in the Derby, after Shohei Ohtani in 2021. The caution is timing: Murakami was activated off the injured list days before the event following a hamstring strain, and a Derby is a max-effort test of exactly the muscles he just rested.
Jac Caglianone brings the biggest raw tools of the group. The Royals rookie has only 15 home runs, but his longest this season went 444 feet and his hardest-hit ball left the bat at 113.4 mph, both event-relevant markers when the format rewards pure distance over batting average. Willson Contreras is the board's longshot. The Red Sox veteran has 20 home runs and a .921 OPS, but he is the field's oldest bat and the least prototypical Derby profile.
The format is what makes this market specific. Since 2024, the Home Run Derby has opened with all eight hitters swinging in a single round, and the four with the most home runs advance to the semifinals, seeded one through four by their first-round totals. The semifinals are head-to-head knockouts, the top seed against the fourth and the second against the third, before a two-hitter final. This contract resolves entirely on that first cut, so a hitter can lose a semifinal and still pay out here.
The 2026 event changes the round itself. MLB scrapped the clock and moved to a swing count, giving each hitter 20 swings in the opening round, 15 in the semifinals, and 15 in the final, with a bonus that extends the round as long as the last swing is a home run. The shift rewards controlled, repeatable power over the frantic pace of the old three-minute clock, part of why a disciplined pull hitter like Schwarber or a young launcher like Caminero profiles well for the top four.
The market resolves the night of July 13, 2026, once MLB confirms the four hitters who advance from the opening round at Citizens Bank Park. Each hitter's contract pays if that hitter is among the top four home run totals in the first round and moves on to the semifinals, and resolves to No otherwise, including if the hitter withdraws or is eliminated. Official MLB results are the source of truth, and a full postponement past July 27, 2026 resolves the contracts to No.
The semifinal cut is one rung on a full Derby board. The Home Run Derby 2026 finals market moves the bar to the last two hitters standing, while the round props track raw output: the most home runs in a single round and the highest single-round total markets both reward the biggest first-round explosion. The Derby swing-off market covers a first-round tiebreaker if two hitters finish level for the last spot. Browse the rest of the slate on the sports prediction markets hub.
This market resolves the night of July 13, 2026, based on the opening round of the T-Mobile Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Each listed hitter's contract resolves to Yes if that hitter finishes among the top four home run totals in the first round and advances to the semifinals, and each Yes share pays $1. All other hitters resolve to No, including any hitter who withdraws or is eliminated before the semifinal field is set. If the Derby is cancelled or postponed past July 27, 2026, or MLB has not confirmed the semifinal field by then, the contracts resolve to No. Official MLB results are the source of truth.
As of July 12, 2026, Polymarket has Junior Caminero as the most likely to reach the semifinals at 59c, followed by Jordan Walker at 55c, Bryce Harper at 54c and Kyle Schwarber at 51c. Munetaka Murakami sits at 50c, Jac Caglianone at 49c, Ben Rice at 46c and Willson Contreras at 38c.
It resolves the night of July 13, 2026, after the opening round of the T-Mobile Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. A hitter's contract pays if he finishes among the top four in first-round home runs and advances to the semifinals.
All eight hitters swing in one opening round, and the four with the most home runs advance, seeded one through four for the head-to-head semifinals. In 2026 each hitter gets 20 swings in that opening round instead of a timed clock.
Polymarket's order favors Junior Caminero, who brought 28 home runs and a .931 OPS into the break. Kyle Schwarber actually leads the field with 32 home runs in his home ballpark, and Ben Rice ranks second with 29, so the board's order does not simply follow the home run leaderboard.
Watch Munetaka Murakami's hamstring in his first Derby after a late injured-list activation, and watch the first-round seeding. Because the top four advance on raw home run totals, one hot round can push a coin-flip name like Jac Caglianone or Ben Rice into the semifinals.