The Home Run Derby 2026 single-round leader market asks one thing: which of the eight sluggers posts the biggest single round at Citizens Bank Park on July 13, 2026. Kyle Schwarber, the MLB home run leader and a hometown Phillie, is the chalk, with 2018 champion Bryce Harper and Rays slugger Junior Caminero rounding out a power-heavy field. This is a peak-power bet, not a bracket bet. The live board above ranks the current Polymarket prices.
The 2026 Home Run Derby field is eight deep, but this contract is not about who lifts the trophy. It rewards the single loudest round of the night, the one hitter who turns a three-minute window into a double-digit barrage. That is a different question than who survives the bracket, and it changes who the sharp money backs.
Kyle Schwarber is the chalk for a reason. He entered the break leading the majors with roughly 32 home runs, he has launched 219 of them in a Phillies uniform since 2022, and his left-handed uppercut is purpose-built for a batting-practice setting at his own Citizens Bank Park. A hitter who pulls the ball in the air for a living, in front of his home crowd, is the cleanest single-round profile on the board.
Bryce Harper gives the host Phillies a second live entry. Harper won the 2018 Derby on his home field in Washington, beating Schwarber in that final, and he knows exactly what a partisan crowd does for the adrenaline. Behind the two Phillies, Ben Rice of the Yankees has been near the top of the majors in homers all season, Rays third baseman Junior Caminero brings the youngest elite pull power in the field, and Jordan Walker of the Cardinals rounds out the group in the low 20s. Jac Caglianone, the Royals rookie, and Willson Contreras fill out the lower rungs on the live board above.
The eighth name is the most interesting. Munetaka Murakami, the White Sox slugger, reached this Derby straight out of Nippon Professional Baseball, where he set the single-season home run record for a Japanese-born hitter with 56 and won three Central League MVP awards with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. He was activated off the injured list the same week he was added to the field, and the board above currently lists seven of the eight names, with Murakami the late addition. A healthy Murakami swing is the one wild card the current prices have not fully absorbed.
The single-round record tells you exactly what this market rewards. Julio Rodriguez holds it: 41 home runs in the first round of the 2023 Derby, a total no full-tournament winner has matched in a single window. Before him, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put up 40 in a round in 2019 and hit 91 across that entire Derby, the most anyone has ever hit in one event. Guerrero lost that 2019 Derby in the final. That is the whole point of this contract. The biggest round of the night often belongs to a hitter who never touches the trophy, because the bracket format burns out even the hottest bat over three rounds. Pete Alonso showed the same thing with 35 in the first round of his 2021 title run.
So the read is peak output over one window, not tournament stamina. A slugger who draws an early slot, swings fresh, and gets hot can post a 30-plus round and top the field without ever reaching the final. Pair that with Citizens Bank Park, a yard that has always played friendly to left-handed pull power, and the single-round ceiling for the top names climbs.
The market resolves the night of July 13, 2026, after the Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, which begins at 8 p.m. ET the day before the All-Star Game. It settles to the player who hits the most home runs in any single round. If two hitters tie for a round high, the tiebreak goes to whoever hit more total home runs across the full Derby, then to the alphabetically first last name. Polymarket settles on official MLB information, with credible reporting as a backstop.
This single-round prop is one slice of the night. For the trophy itself, see the 2026 Home Run Derby winner market, and for the last two rounds compare the Home Run Derby 2026 semifinals odds and the Home Run Derby 2026 finals matchup. If you want the over-under instead of the leaderboard, the Home Run Derby 2026 round total market prices the number of homers in a round directly. Browse the rest of our baseball prediction markets for the full All-Star week board.
Resolves to the player who hits the most home runs in a single round of the 2026 Home Run Derby, held at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on July 13, 2026. If two players tie for the most home runs in a round, the market resolves in favor of the tied player with the most total home runs across the entire Derby; if a tie still persists, it resolves to the tied player whose last name comes first alphabetically. Polymarket settles using official information from MLB, with a consensus of credible reporting as a backstop. If the Derby is canceled, postponed past October 11, 2026, or a single-round leader cannot be determined, the market resolves to Other.
As of July 12, 2026, Kyle Schwarber is the favorite to post the biggest single round at 33c on Polymarket, ahead of Jordan Walker and Rays slugger Junior Caminero. The live board above updates the full field.
It resolves the night of July 13, 2026, after the Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, which starts at 8 p.m. ET the day before the All-Star Game.
This market trades on Polymarket, with one contract per slugger for hitting the most home runs in a single round of the 2026 Derby.
Kyle Schwarber, the Phillies designated hitter and MLB home run leader with roughly 32 homers, is the chalk, both as the host-park hitter and the biggest raw power on the board.
Watch the bracket draw and whether Munetaka Murakami, just activated off the injured list, is added as a tradable contract, since a healthy 56-homer NPB record-holder would reshape the field.