The 2026 Home Run Derby single-round total market prices one number: how many home runs the single biggest round of the night reaches. Eight hitters swing at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on July 13, 2026, under a new swing-capped format that hands out 20 swings in Round 1 and 15 in each round after, a structure that pulls the ceiling well below the timed-era record of 41. The live board above tracks every rung from 10-plus to 30-plus.
The 2026 Home Run Derby asks one narrow question this year: when the biggest round of the night is finished, how tall is the number? This market is not about who lifts the trophy. It is about the single highest home run total any one hitter posts in any one round, then it settles a ladder of thresholds against that figure. Philadelphia hosts on July 13, 2026, and a rebuilt format has changed the math on what a big round even looks like.
Eight hitters swing at Citizens Bank Park, and two of them wear the home uniform. Kyle Schwarber arrives with a league-leading 32 home runs at the break and 56 a year ago, the pull-heavy lefty profile that turns a friendly right-field porch into a barrage. Bryce Harper, the 2018 Derby champion, is the other host Phillie. Junior Caminero, the 2025 runner-up, brings the fastest bat speed in the majors at age 23, the kind of swing that spikes a single round.
The rest of the field can go deep in a hurry too. Munetaka Murakami is the first NPB-origin hitter ever in a Home Run Derby, a three-time Central League MVP who set the single-season home run record for a Japanese-born player with 56. Ben Rice has 51 home runs since the start of 2025, Jordan Walker is a 6-foot-6 breakout at 250 pounds, Jac Caglianone carries top-shelf raw power out of Kansas City, and Willson Contreras is riding a career power year at catcher. Any of them can string together the run of swings that clears a high bar.
The single-round total market is a ladder of six rungs, from 10-plus up to 30-plus home runs, and each rung is its own Yes or No on whether the biggest round of the whole event clears that bar. Clearing 10 or 14 in a single round is close to a formality for a field this loaded, so the low rungs read as near-locks rather than coin flips. The real question sits at 18, the line that separates a genuinely big round from a merely good one. Above it, the 22, 26, and 30 rungs are long shots under the new swing cap. The round leader market prices which hitter actually posts that biggest round, while this ladder prices how high it goes. The live board above tracks every rung.
The single-round record belongs to Julio Rodriguez, who launched 41 home runs in the first round of the 2023 Derby in Seattle, edging the 40 that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit in the 2019 second round. Guerrero's 91 total that night in Cleveland is still the record for a full event. Those numbers came under the timed format, where a locked-in hitter could rip 40-plus swings inside a three-minute clock. The 2026 Derby throws that clock out. Each hitter now gets 20 swings in Round 1 and 15 in every round after, which puts 40 out of reach and turns even the 30 rung into a stretch. The one escape hatch is the last-swing rule: a home run on a hitter's final allotted swing extends the round until he records a non-homer swing. For a marker on where a swing-capped field lands, the biggest single round of 2025 was Cal Raleigh's 19 in the semifinals, posted under the more generous timed format.
This market resolves the night of July 13, 2026, once the T-Mobile Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park is complete. Each threshold contract settles Yes if the highest single-round total by any one participant meets or exceeds its number and No otherwise. If the Derby is cancelled or postponed past July 27, 2026, or no clear single-round total is defined, the contracts resolve 50-50. The resolution source is official MLB information, with a consensus of credible reporting available as backup.
The single-round total is one slice of a busy Derby board. The 2026 Home Run Derby winner odds price the trophy itself, while the round leader market settles which hitter posts the biggest single round. Bracket watchers can track who advances through the Home Run Derby semifinals market and the Home Run Derby finals market, and the Home Run Derby swing-off market covers the tiebreaker rounds. For the full slate of contests, browse sports prediction markets.
This market resolves based on the highest single-round home run total by any one participant at the 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby, held July 13, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Each ladder contract at 10, 14, 18, 22, 26, and 30 home runs resolves Yes if that highest single-round total meets or exceeds its number and No otherwise. If the Derby is cancelled or postponed past July 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or no clear single-round total is defined, the contracts resolve 50-50. The resolution source is official information from MLB, with a consensus of credible reporting used as backup.
It settles on the highest home run total any one hitter posts in any single round of the July 13, 2026 Derby in Philadelphia. Six threshold contracts, from 10-plus to 30-plus homers, each resolve Yes if the biggest round clears that number.
It resolves the night of July 13, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park once the Derby ends. If the event is cancelled or postponed past July 27, 2026, or no clear single-round total is defined, the contracts resolve 50-50.
The six threshold contracts trade on Polymarket, one rung for each of the 10, 14, 18, 22, 26, and 30 home run lines. The live board above shows the current price on every rung.
As of July 12, 2026, the live board centers on the 18-plus rung near 32c, with 22-plus at 5c and both the 26-plus and 30-plus rungs at 3c. For context, the all-time single-round record is 41 home runs, set by Julio Rodriguez in 2023.
Watch whether the new swing cap suppresses the field the way it looks like it should, whether Kyle Schwarber or Junior Caminero posts an early 18-plus round, and how Munetaka Murakami swings in his first game back from the injured list. Round 1, with its 20-swing allotment, is the likeliest place a big number shows up.