The Bitcoin year-end price board is centered almost exactly on spot with two months left, and the only part of it that looks wrong is the top. Kalshi's range market on where bitcoin sits at midnight on January 1, 2027 puts 47% on a finish between $70K and $85K as of Tuesday morning, November 3. Bitcoin traded at $77.5K on Coinbase at 8:42 a.m. ET, inside the board's favorite bucket. The finish above $100K, priced near 9% across its buckets, is the tail to sell.
The board is a ladder of $5K ranges, 28 contracts in all, and trades on Kalshi only in the Genius feed. It has handled about 45.2M contracts. The 28 prices add to 102.6%, so each bucket carries a small overround.
Bitcoin Year-End Price Odds by Range
Prices are Kalshi's Yes side for each range, read from the Genius API on November 3. Each range includes its lower bound and stops one cent short of the upper one. Most quotes were last refreshed early Tuesday morning.
| Year-end range | Kalshi | Kalshi on Sep 8 |
| $65K to $70K | 9% | 8% |
| $70K to $75K | 15% | 12% |
| $75K to $80K | 17% | 13% |
| $80K to $85K | 15% | 12% |
| $85K to $90K | 10% | 10% |
| $90K to $95K | 7% | 8% |
| $95K to $100K | 5% | 6% |
| $100K to $105K | 3% | 3% |
Grouped, the board reads cleanly. A finish below $70K is about 24%. A finish between $70K and $85K is 47%. A finish at $85K or higher is about 31%, and $100K or higher about 9%. Adding up the buckets from the bottom, the market's midpoint lands inside the $75K to $80K range, the same range spot sits in today.
The Bitcoin Year-End Price Pick: Sell the $100K Tail
The year-end board prices a finish at $100K or higher at roughly 9%. The touch markets on the same question make that number look rich. Polymarket prices bitcoin trading at $100K or higher at any point before the end of 2026 at 11%, and Kalshi prices a print above $100K at 14%.
Bitcoin has to touch $100K before it can finish above it. A year-end finish priced at 9% against a touch priced at 11% assumes that almost every path reaching $100K stays there through midnight on New Year's Eve. The lower half of the same board does not make that assumption. Polymarket prices a print at or below $70K before year-end at 49%, and the year-end board prices a finish below $70K at about 24%, roughly half.
The downside is priced with reversals in mind. The upside is priced as if a rally only goes one way. That asymmetry is the trade: the $100K-plus buckets are too expensive as a group by a few cents, and selling them, or buying the No side, is the cleanest position on this board.
The two venues also settle differently. Polymarket's touch markets settle on Binance's BTC/USDT one-minute candles, while this board uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real Time Index, so the comparison is directional rather than an exact arbitrage.
Why the Bitcoin Year-End Price Board Centers on $77K
The market has followed spot down. Bitcoin closed October 1 at $84.8K on Coinbase and traded between $76.1K and $87.2K during the month. It closed November 2 at $76.7K and was back above $77K Tuesday morning.
Kalshi moved with it. The $70K to $75K bucket fell to 7% on October 5, when bitcoin closed at $85.7K, and has doubled to 15% since. The $75K to $80K bucket went from 11% to 17% over the same stretch. The $90K to $95K bucket was 11% on October 5 and is 7% now.
That is a board pricing a quiet two months. With spot at $77.5K, the 47% middle covers a move of about 10% down to roughly 10% up. Bitcoin's October range alone was wider than that, from $76.1K to $87.2K, which is why the wings still carry real money.
What Bitcoin's 2026 Path Means for the Bitcoin Year-End Price
The year has been a round trip with a hole in the middle. Bitcoin opened 2026 at $87.5K on Coinbase, hit its high for the year of $98K on January 14, and fell to a low of $57.7K on July 1. It is down about 11% year to date.
When we first covered this board on June 28, the market's center sat below $70K, and bitcoin closed that day at $59.5K (our June read). Spot has since recovered about $18K, and the board followed it: a finish below $70K is now about 24%.
For bitcoin to finish 2026 above where it opened, it needs to clear $87.5K, which sits inside the $85K to $90K bucket. A finish at $90K or above, comfortably clear of that mark, is about 21%. The board treats a clearly positive year as roughly a one-in-five shot.
How the Bitcoin Year-End Price Board Compares With the Touch Markets
The touch markets fill in the path the year-end board does not show. Polymarket's high ladder prices $90K or higher before year-end at 28% and $95K or higher at 16%. Its low ladder prices $65K or lower at 28% and $60K or lower at 17%.
Set side by side, the year-end finish and the touch price for the same level show where the board is out of line:
| Level | Year-end finish beyond it (Kalshi) | Touch before year-end (Polymarket) | Finish as share of touch |
| $60K or lower | 10.4% | 17% | 61% |
| $65K or lower | 15.4% | 28% | 55% |
| $90K or higher | 21.2% | 28% | 76% |
| $95K or higher | 14.2% | 16% | 89% |
| $100K or higher | 9.2% | 11% | 84% |
On the downside, the board prices a finish beyond each level at a little over half the chance of touching it. On the upside, that share climbs to between 76% and 89%. A price that reaches $95K in December and then slips back under it by midnight on New Year's Eve resolves No on the year-end board but Yes on the touch market, and the upside rows barely price that path. That is the gap the pick above trades.
When the Bitcoin Year-End Price Market Resolves
Each range resolves Yes if the simple average of the 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real Time Index before 12 a.m. EST on January 1, 2027 falls inside it. Every other range resolves No. One minute of data decides the whole board.
Key Bitcoin Year-End Price Catalysts Through December 31
- Fed decision on December 9:** Polymarket prices another rate hike by that meeting at 73%, so a hold would be the surprise.
- October low at $76.1K:** a break below it opens the $70K to $75K bucket, already 15%.
- October high at $87.2K:** a move above it puts bitcoin back near its $87.5K opening price for 2026.
- The $100K touch markets:** if they fall faster than the year-end buckets above $100K, the mispricing closes.
- The final minute:** the CF Benchmarks average from 11:59 p.m. to midnight EST on New Year's Eve settles every range.
Related Bitcoin Year-End Price Markets
The path markets carry the other half of this story: How High Will Bitcoin Get in 2026 odds and Bitcoin 2026 Low odds. The same year-end format runs on the Ethereum year-end price odds. The rate backdrop is on the Fed Rate Hike 2026 odds board. More crypto boards are on the crypto prediction markets hub, and more house analysis is under Genius Staff editorial.