The Fed rate hike 2026 market asks whether the upper bound of the federal funds target moves higher at any point this year. It has not moved since the December 11, 2025 cut, and the contract has repriced hard, from the mid-teens in April to a 67c high on June 19 as headline inflation ran at 4.2%. Three FOMC meetings remain, on September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9. Roughly $7.6M has traded, and the live board above carries the current Yes and No prices.
The Fed has not moved rates once in 2026. The upper bound of the federal funds target has sat at 3.75% since the December 11, 2025 cut, and across that stretch the hike contract has gone from a long shot to a live question. Yes traded between 13c and 20c through April, spiked to a 67c high on June 19 as headline inflation ran at 4.2%, and changed hands between 45c and 60c in mid-August. The tail-risk framing this market carried in the spring no longer fits the price. The live board above carries the current number.
The question is deliberately broad. It does not ask about a single meeting. It asks whether the upper bound of the target range moves higher at any point between January 1, 2026 and the December decision. Three scheduled FOMC meetings remain inside that window: September 15-16, October 27-28, and December 8-9. A Yes share is a claim on all three at once rather than on a specific date, and each announcement is its own discrete resolution event.
The macro data underneath the price explains the repricing. Headline CPI ran 4.2% year over year in May, the 2026 high, and cooled to 3.3% in the July report. Core CPI sits at 2.5%, down from 2.8% in May. Core PCE, the gauge the committee actually targets, was 3.3% in June against a 2% goal. Unemployment fell to 4.1% in July from 4.3% in the spring. Inflation above target on every measure, paired with a labor market that is tightening rather than cracking, is the exact combination that keeps a hike on the table. The softer July prints are why Yes came off its June high.
The cut side has been priced out almost entirely. On the 2026 rate cuts count market, zero cuts is the modal outcome by a wide margin, and the September FOMC decision board prices a hold as the favorite with a 25bp hike as the only alternative carrying real size. Both cut outcomes there trade in low single digits. That is the structural read on this contract. The market has stopped arguing about how many cuts land in 2026 and started arguing about whether the committee gets forced the other way.
This board is a single Polymarket contract carrying roughly $7.6M in cumulative volume, so no second venue quotes this exact question. Kalshi does list a close cousin asking whether the Fed hikes by December 31, 2026. The windows differ. This market settles off the December 8-9 decision, while the Kalshi version runs three more weeks to year end. No FOMC meeting is scheduled inside that gap, so only an unscheduled intermeeting move separates the two questions. Read them as related contracts, not as one contract on two venues.
The market resolves after the Federal Reserve publishes its rate decision following the December 8-9, 2026 FOMC meeting. It resolves Yes the moment the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and that meeting, which means it can settle early at the September 16 or October 28 announcement. It resolves No only once the December decision is released with no hike having occurred during the year. The primary source of truth is the Federal Reserve's official open market operations page, with a consensus of credible reporting as a backstop.
The rate complex reads best across the meeting-level and direction contracts together. The September Fed rate decision odds price the nearest discrete risk, the December Fed rate decision market covers the meeting this contract settles against, and the no Fed rate cuts 2026 market takes the same view from the opposite direction. The Fed rate cut before 2027 market extends the question past year end. For inflation, growth, and rates contracts in one place, browse the economics prediction markets hub.
Resolves Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Three scheduled FOMC announcements remain inside that window, on September 16, October 28, and December 9, so the market can settle Yes early at any of them. It resolves No only after the Fed releases its rate decision following the December meeting with no hike having occurred during the year. The primary resolution source is the Federal Reserve's official open market operations page (federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), with a consensus of credible reporting available as a backstop. A pause or a cut does not by itself resolve the market; the No outcome requires the full year to pass with no increase to the upper bound.
As of August 17, 2026, Yes traded at 49c and No at 52c on Polymarket, close to a coin flip. That is well off the 67c high set on June 19 but far above the 13c the contract traded at in April. The live board above carries the current price.
It resolves after the Fed publishes its decision following the December 8-9, 2026 FOMC meeting. It can settle Yes early at the September 16 or October 28 announcement, but it only resolves No once that December decision lands with no hike.
This contract trades on Polymarket as a single Yes/No market with roughly $7.6M in cumulative volume. Kalshi lists a related contract asking whether the Fed hikes by December 31, 2026, which runs three weeks longer than this one.
A reacceleration in inflation is the trigger. Core PCE was running at 3.3% in June against a 2% target, and with unemployment down to 4.1% in July the committee has no labor-market argument for easing, which leaves tightening as the live direction if prints turn hot again.
Watch each monthly CPI and PCE release and the three remaining FOMC announcements on September 16, October 28, and December 9. Headline CPI falling from 4.2% in May to 3.3% in July moved this contract more than 15c, so a single surprise print reprices it quickly.