This is the zero-cut tail of the Fed-cuts-count family: it pays out only if the FOMC delivers no 25 basis point cuts at all in 2026. It trades on Polymarket across roughly $5.7M in cumulative volume and resolves December 31, 2026, with one feature traders should note. A single cut at any meeting flips it to No immediately, so the contract is a clean bet on a higher-for-longer Fed holding the line for an entire calendar year. The live board above carries the current price.
The no Fed rate cuts 2026 market is the most extreme node in the rate-path family. Where the broader board counts how many quarter-point cuts the FOMC delivers, this contract asks a single binary question: does the year end with the count at exactly zero. It is the higher-for-longer scenario priced as one outcome, and it resolves the instant that scenario breaks.
The contract resolves Yes only if the Federal Open Market Committee delivers zero cuts of 25 basis points across every scheduled 2026 meeting, plus any emergency action outside the calendar. One cut, at any meeting, ends it. That asymmetry is the whole story. The market is not pricing a gentle easing path or a slow glide lower. It is pricing whether the Fed sits entirely still on cuts for twelve straight months.
That framing makes the no-cut tail a pure read on inflation persistence and labor-market strength. A Fed that holds all year is a Fed that still sees price pressure it does not want to validate, or a labor market too tight to justify loosening. The contract climbs when inflation prints come in hot, when the jobs report stays firm, and when FOMC officials lean hawkish in speeches and the dot plot. It falls the moment the data softens enough to put a single cut on the table.
Because this is the zero-cut end of the distribution, it behaves differently from the meeting-by-meeting decision contracts. A trader watching the next scheduled decision is pricing one event. A trader on the no-cut market is pricing the absence of a cut across the entire remaining calendar, which means every meeting between now and December is a separate chance for the contract to resolve No. The probability decays naturally as the year runs down and meetings pass without a cut, then collapses to zero the first time the Fed moves.
The market lives on Polymarket and carries roughly $5.7M in cumulative volume, which makes it one of the more actively traded nodes in the rate family. It is part of the same how-many-cuts event that prices one cut, two cuts, three cuts, and beyond, so the no-cut line and the multi-cut lines move as a connected set. When the no-cut probability rises, the higher-count outcomes have to give ground, and the reverse holds when a dovish signal lands. The live board above shows where the price sits today.
The market resolves December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, with the late close built in to capture any emergency cut outside the scheduled FOMC calendar. It resolves Yes only if the Fed delivers zero 25 basis point cuts across all of 2026. It resolves early to No the first time a cut occurs, since a single cut makes a zero-cut year impossible. The resolution source is the FOMC statements published after each scheduled meeting on the Federal Reserve calendar, with the target federal funds rate level and change confirmed at federalreserve.gov.
The no-cut tail is one read on the same Fed path that drives the rest of the economics board. For the next scheduled meeting, the Fed Rate Decision Jul 2026 odds price the single decision rather than the full-year count. On the opposite side of the path, the Fed Rate Hike 2026 odds track whether the Fed moves higher instead of lower. For the full set of rate, inflation, and recession contracts, browse the economics prediction markets hub, and see more coverage from Genius Staff.
Resolves Yes only if the Federal Open Market Committee delivers zero cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, counting all scheduled FOMC meetings plus any emergency action outside the calendar. A 50 basis point cut counts as two cuts, and any cut between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one cut. The market resolves early to No the first time any cut occurs, since a single cut makes a zero-cut year impossible. It remains open until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET to capture late or emergency actions. The resolution source is the FOMC statements published after each scheduled 2026 meeting on the official Federal Reserve calendar, with the target federal funds rate level and change confirmed at federalreserve.gov.
The market trades on Polymarket across roughly $5.7M in cumulative volume as the zero-cut tail of the how-many-cuts family. The live board above shows the current Yes and No prices.
It resolves December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, or early to No the moment any cut occurs. Resolution follows the FOMC statements published after each scheduled 2026 meeting.
This contract is listed on Polymarket as part of the how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026 event. It is the single-platform zero-cut node, so there is no Kalshi cross-platform line to compare against.
The Fed must deliver zero cuts of 25 basis points across every 2026 meeting, including any emergency action. A single cut at any meeting flips the contract to No.
Watch each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting, the core PCE and CPI inflation prints, and the monthly jobs report, since any one of them can put a cut on the table and end the zero-cut scenario.