The Fed Rate Decision Jul 2026 market prices what the FOMC will do with the federal funds target at its July 28-29 meeting, sorted into named outcomes for a hold, a 25 basis point hike, a 25 basis point cut, and the larger moves on either side. It trades across roughly $28.7M in cumulative volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, with the contender set anchored by the hold and the 25 bps hike. The live board above ranks the current cross-platform prices on each outcome. The market resolves the day the Federal Reserve publishes its July 2026 policy statement.
The Fed Rate Decision Jul 2026 board is a multi-outcome FOMC market, not a single yes or no. Five named outcomes split the probability: a hold at the current target, a 25 basis point hike, a 25 basis point cut, and the tail moves of more than 25 bps in either direction. The hold and the 25 bps hike carry almost all of the weight, which is what you would expect from a committee that telegraphs its moves through the dot plot and a wall of speeches before every meeting. The live board above shows where each outcome trades right now across Kalshi and Polymarket.
A hold is the structural favorite on the Fed Rate Decision Jul 2026 market, and it usually is. The FOMC meets eight times a year and changes the target at only a fraction of those meetings, so the no-change outcome starts every cycle with an edge. The hold contract resolves Yes if the committee leaves the federal funds target range unchanged on July 29, 2026.
What compresses the hold is data that arrives between meetings. A run of soft labor prints or a cooling inflation series pulls weight toward a cut. A reacceleration in core CPI or a wage surprise pushes it toward a hike. The hold price is best read as the market's bet that the incoming data does not force the committee's hand before late July.
The 25 basis point hike is the primary alternative to a hold on the Fed Rate Decision Jul 2026 board, and it is where most of the non-hold probability sits. A standard quarter-point move is the committee's default tightening step, so when the market sees upside risk to inflation it expresses that through the 25 bps hike contract rather than the larger tail.
The more than 25 bps hike is a tail outcome. A 50 basis point move from the Fed is rare outside of a clear inflation shock, so this contract trades near the floor and functions as a lottery ticket on a hawkish surprise. The gap between the 25 bps hike and the larger hike is the market's read on how orderly the tightening path looks.
The cut outcomes are the dovish side of the Fed Rate Decision Jul 2026 market. A 25 basis point cut resolves Yes if the committee lowers the target range by a quarter point, and a cut of more than 25 bps covers a larger easing move. Both sit on the low end of the board when the labor market is firm and inflation is sticky.
A cut repriced higher would signal that the market sees the economy weakening fast enough to pull the committee off a tightening or holding stance. The related Recession this year? odds and the CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026 odds move alongside the cut outcomes here, because the same growth and inflation data that feeds a recession or a cooling CPI print is what would force an easing.
The Fed Rate Decision Jul 2026 market resolves on the outcome of the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026, settling the day the Federal Reserve publishes its policy statement, listed here as July 29, 2026. The source of truth is the official FOMC statement announcing the federal funds target range. The outcome that matches the published decision pays out and every other outcome resolves to zero.
The Fed Rate Decision Jul 2026 board sits inside a cluster of macro contracts that all trade off the same data. Track the Recession this year? odds for the growth side of the picture and the CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026 odds for the inflation read that drives the committee's hand. Browse the full economics prediction markets hub for every rate, inflation, and growth contract across Kalshi and Polymarket, and see more reference pages from Genius Staff.
Resolves on the federal funds target range announced by the Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026, settling on the date the policy statement is published, listed here as July 29, 2026. The source of truth is the official FOMC statement. The outcome matching the published decision (hold, 25 bps hike, more than 25 bps hike, 25 bps cut, or more than 25 bps cut) pays $1 per share and all other outcomes resolve to $0. If the meeting is rescheduled, the contract follows the date of the actual decision per each platform's rules; an emergency intermeeting move is handled by the platform's stated procedure for the relevant decision window.
The market splits across five named outcomes: a hold, a 25 bps hike, a more than 25 bps hike, a 25 bps cut, and a more than 25 bps cut. The hold and the 25 bps hike carry most of the weight across roughly $28.7M in cumulative volume. The live board above ranks the current cross-platform prices on each outcome.
It resolves on the FOMC decision from the meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026, settling on the date the policy statement is published, listed here as July 29, 2026. The source of truth is the official Federal Reserve statement on the federal funds target range.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the July 2026 FOMC decision, so this is a cross-platform market across 2 platforms. Comparing the two pools on the same outcome surfaces any spread where they disagree on a hold, hike, or cut.
The hold is the structural favorite, as it is for most FOMC meetings, with the 25 bps hike as the primary alternative. The cut outcomes and the larger more than 25 bps moves trade as tails. The live board above shows the current ranking.
Watch the June and July labor reports and the CPI and PCE inflation prints, the two data streams that move weight between the hold, hike, and cut outcomes. The FOMC dot plot, meeting minutes, and Fed speeches ahead of the July 29, 2026 decision are the other catalysts to track.