Amsterdam Prediction Markets & 2026 Civic Odds
Live Amsterdam 2026 mayoral odds, Dutch drug and cannabis policy markets, and local ballot outcomes tracked across prediction markets when they list.
Key Facts
via WikidataAmsterdam is the capital of the Kingdom of the Netherlands and a city of roughly 921,000 people, governed by a directly appointed mayor working alongside an elected municipal council. As of June 5, 2026, the named mayor on record is Femke Halsema, who leads the city's executive board within the Dutch system of crown-appointed mayors and proportional council elections. Civic prediction markets for Amsterdam tend to cluster around national drug and cannabis policy, municipal governance, and local economic outcomes rather than a single high-volume contract. Coverage on the platforms tracked by Prediction Genius is currently thin, with most listed contracts tied to daily weather rather than governance. The live board above shows every contract that is active right now.
Amsterdam 2026 Mayoral & Governance Markets
Amsterdam does not elect its mayor by direct popular vote in the way many large cities do. Under the Dutch system, the mayor is formally appointed by the crown on the recommendation of the municipal council, while the council itself is chosen through proportional representation. As of June 5, 2026, the mayor on record is Femke Halsema. This appointment structure makes Amsterdam governance harder to package into a clean binary contract than a US-style mayoral primary, which is one reason dedicated municipal-leadership markets for the city are scarce. When governance contracts do appear, the durable drivers are the council's coalition arithmetic, national party dynamics carried down to the municipal level, and the appointment calendar rather than head-to-head polling. The live board above lists any active governance contract; deeper detail on the office-holder routes to the leader hub.
Amsterdam Policy & Civic Markets
The markets most naturally associated with Amsterdam are policy-driven and often national in scope: Dutch cannabis and drug policy, tourism and short-term-rental rules, and the city's housing and local economy. These trade, when they trade, off the Dutch legislative calendar, court timelines, and coalition politics at The Hague, since much of what shapes Amsterdam policy is decided at the national level. The durable read is that Amsterdam-specific civic contracts are episodic, surfacing around a concrete policy vote or a scheduled municipal decision rather than persisting as standing markets. Point to the live board above for whatever is currently listed.
What's Driving Amsterdam Prediction Market Volume
At present, Amsterdam's listed volume on the tracked platforms is dominated by daily high-temperature weather contracts rather than civic or governance outcomes. Those weather markets are structurally distinct from the city's politics and policy and do not reflect genuine civic trading interest. The honest picture is that Amsterdam is a thin civic market today: the genuine governance and policy contracts are sparse, and most activity tagged to the city is weather event-hub volume. As Dutch national policy debates and any municipal decisions reach concrete resolution dates, additional Amsterdam-specific contracts may list. The live board above always reflects the current set.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Amsterdam mayoral and civic market odds?
As of June 5, 2026, the tracked platforms list no active Amsterdam mayoral or civic governance contracts with meaningful volume; current listed activity is limited to daily high-temperature weather markets. Check the live board above for any contract that lists.
How do Amsterdam prediction market prices compare across platforms?
Amsterdam currently has thin coverage, with listed contracts appearing on a single platform rather than priced across multiple books. When civic or policy markets list on more than one platform, the live board above shows each price so spreads can be compared directly.
What Amsterdam prediction markets does Prediction Genius cover?
Coverage spans Amsterdam municipal governance, Dutch national drug and cannabis policy, tourism and housing rules, and local economic outcomes, plus any ballot or council decisions that list. Today most active contracts tagged to the city are daily weather markets rather than civic ones.
Who is the current mayor of Amsterdam?
As of June 5, 2026, the mayor on record is Femke Halsema. Under the Dutch system, Amsterdam's mayor is appointed by the crown on the municipal council's recommendation rather than elected by direct popular vote, working alongside a proportionally elected council.
What's the biggest factor in Amsterdam prediction market prices?
The biggest durable driver is Dutch national politics carried down to the municipal level: coalition arithmetic in The Hague, the legislative calendar, and the crown-appointment structure for the mayor of a city of roughly 921,000. Local civic contracts surface around concrete policy votes rather than persisting.