Manila Prediction Markets & 2026 Weather Odds
Live Manila daily temperature odds, Philippine capital civic markets, and local governance contracts tracked across prediction markets as coverage expands.
Manila Markets
4 marketsKey Facts
via WikidataManila is the capital of the Philippines and one of the densest cities in Southeast Asia, home to roughly 1.9 million residents within a metropolitan region of more than thirteen million. Founded in 1571 and serving as the seat of national government, the city anchors a small but growing set of prediction markets. As of June 5, 2026 that board is almost entirely weather-driven: daily contracts on Manila's high temperature dominate the active set, while genuine civic markets on the mayoral office, council races, and local policy have not yet developed depth. The live odds for every contract sit on the board above; the analysis below covers what trades today and what would expand the board.
Manila Weather & Daily Temperature Markets
The active Manila board is presently a single weather ladder: a set of contracts pricing the city's daily high temperature across a band that runs from 27 degrees Celsius or below up through 37 degrees Celsius or higher. As of June 5, 2026 the live board concentrates probability in the low-30s Celsius range, which tracks Manila's tropical climate, where high temperatures in the dry-to-wet transition months cluster tightly. These markets resolve on a single calendar day against an official observation, so they reprice fully each session and carry thin per-contract volume. They are structurally a weather product rather than a civic one: the subject is the temperature reading, not the city's government or policy. Point to the live board above for the current cents on each rung of the ladder.
What's Driving Manila Prediction Market Volume
Manila's traded volume today comes almost entirely from short-dated weather contracts, not from elections or governance. The durable reason is structural: daily temperature ladders are easy to list for any major world city and resolve quickly, so they appear on the board before deeper civic markets do. Manila has the population weight and national-capital gravity that typically support election and policy markets, the city government is led by Mayor Isko Moreno, and the Philippines holds regular municipal and national elections, but those contracts have not yet been listed with meaningful liquidity. The forward catalyst that would deepen this board is a contested Manila mayoral cycle or a nationally watched Philippine policy question routing through the capital.
Manila Civic & Governance Markets
Genuine civic markets for Manila, covering the mayoral office, city council, ballot measures, and local policy, are not yet active on the platforms Prediction Genius tracks. Manila is the seat of the national Philippine government and a perennial focal point for the country's politics, which is the durable structural reason such markets could trade here in future cycles. When a competitive mayoral race, a council contest, or a capital-centered national policy question is listed, those contracts will appear on the board above and this page will cover them. Until then the honest read is that Manila's prediction market footprint is thin and weather-led.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Manila weather market odds?
As of June 5, 2026 the live board concentrates probability in the low-30s Celsius range for Manila's daily high temperature, with the 31 to 32 degree rungs carrying the most weight. Exact cents on each rung sit on the board above and reprice every session.
How do Manila prediction market prices compare across platforms?
Manila's active contracts are short-dated daily weather markets that currently trade on a single platform book rather than across a cross-platform spread. As deeper civic markets list and additional platforms add coverage, side-by-side price comparison will become more meaningful.
What Manila prediction markets does Prediction Genius cover?
Coverage today is daily high-temperature contracts for the city. The page is built to cover mayoral and council elections, ballot measures, and local policy as those markets list, but as of June 5, 2026 genuine civic markets for Manila are not yet active.
Who is the current mayor of Manila?
Manila's city government is led by Mayor Isko Moreno. Manila is the capital of the Philippines and the seat of the national government, which makes the mayoralty one of the country's most visible local offices.
What's the biggest factor in Manila prediction market prices?
Today the biggest factor is climate: Manila's tropical weather, where daily highs cluster in the low-30s Celsius, drives the temperature ladder that makes up nearly all active volume. Population weight of roughly 1.9 million and national-capital status are the durable drivers that would move future civic markets.