Live labor market odds across monthly jobs report, unemployment rate, and tech layoffs markets tracked across prediction markets.
Labor market prediction markets trade across 13 active contracts as of June 5, 2026, anchored by the monthly nonfarm payrolls report that consistently draws the deepest coverage on the board. The set spans the jobs report release, the headline unemployment rate, and tech layoffs markets, with the payrolls print carrying nine of the active contracts. These markets resolve against official Bureau of Labor Statistics data: payrolls and the unemployment rate against the BLS Employment Situation release, layoffs against confirmed company announcements. The first-Friday monthly jobs report is the recurring catalyst that reprices the labor board, with the live top-markets and movers widgets above showing where each contract sits today.
The labor board concentrates around three market types. The jobs report group is the deepest, carrying nine of the thirteen active contracts as of June 5, 2026. These contracts ask where the monthly nonfarm payrolls number lands, structured as threshold ladders (will payrolls come in above a stated figure) and range buckets keyed to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release. Unemployment rate markets form the second type, resolving against the BLS headline rate for a given month or annual window. Tech layoffs markets round out the set, resolving against confirmed workforce reduction announcements from major technology employers. Coverage at this tier is concentrated rather than broad, with the jobs report carrying the structural volume and the unemployment and layoffs contracts trading as single-question markets. Reference the live board above for current pricing on each contract.
The labor calendar runs on a fixed monthly cadence. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation report, covering nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the single most-watched catalyst for this board. Weekly initial jobless claims print every Thursday and feed the broader read on labor conditions even where no dedicated contract exists. Job openings data from the JOLTS report arrives roughly six weeks after each reference month. Tech layoffs markets resolve on company-specific timelines tied to announced reductions and annual reporting windows for 2025, 2026, and 2027. Each monthly jobs report opens a fresh round of payrolls and unemployment contracts, so the board refreshes on a predictable schedule that decays gracefully against the calendar.
Volume on the labor board is catalyst-driven, clustering around scheduled data releases rather than running steadily through the month. The monthly jobs report is the dominant driver: payrolls and unemployment contracts see the sharpest repricing in the days before and the minutes after the first-Friday BLS release. Consensus economist forecasts, ADP private payrolls, and weekly jobless claims set the pre-release baseline that the official print confirms or upsets. Tech layoffs markets move on company announcements and earnings-season cost-cutting news rather than the macro calendar. Because labor data resolves against published BLS figures on a known schedule, these contracts attract traders looking to price the gap between consensus and outcome. Point to the live movers widget above for the current biggest movers and exact cents on each contract.
Labor market coverage spans 13 active contracts across three types as of June 5, 2026: the monthly jobs report (nonfarm payrolls), the headline unemployment rate, and tech layoffs markets. The jobs report carries nine of the active contracts, making it the deepest segment on the board.
The monthly jobs report markets structurally carry the labor board, holding nine of the thirteen active contracts. These payrolls-threshold contracts reprice hardest around the first-Friday Bureau of Labor Statistics release. See the live board above for current pricing on each contract.
Jobs report and unemployment contracts resolve against the official Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release for the stated month, using the published nonfarm payrolls figure and headline unemployment rate. Tech layoffs markets resolve against confirmed workforce-reduction announcements from the named company.
As of June 5, 2026, the monthly nonfarm payrolls contract is the most-traded labor market, anchoring the nine-contract jobs report group. For the current favorite, exact cents, and volume on each platform, see the live top-markets widget above, which refreshes from the API.
Pricing can differ across platforms because of resolution-wording differences on payrolls thresholds and uneven book depth, with one platform often carrying tighter spreads on the jobs report contracts. The live board above shows current spread sizes; platform-specific prices are quoted there.