| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Basharat | — | O 2.5 51% | 83%84% | 84% Polymarket |
▶Garza | — | U 2.5 49% | 18%17% | 18% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Farid Basharat | — | O 2.5 | 84% Polymarket | |
▶John Garza | — | U 2.5 | 18% Kalshi |
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Farid Basharat is the 84c favorite on the Basharat vs Garza moneyline (83c Kalshi, 84c Polymarket) at UFC 329 on July 11, 2026, priced at roughly an 83% chance to beat short-notice debutant John Garza. Basharat is 15-0 and undefeated in the UFC, while Garza is 6-1 and stepped in on six days notice to replace the injured Ethyn Ewing. The bout carries about $108K in cross-platform volume, and the favorite has held 83c to 84c overnight with no fight-week move.
Farid Basharat is the 84c favorite on the Basharat vs Garza moneyline (83c Kalshi, 84c Polymarket), a consensus read that prices the undefeated bantamweight at roughly an 83% chance to beat short-notice UFC debutant John Garza at UFC 329 on July 11, 2026. The bout carries about $108K in cross-platform volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, and the line has held flat overnight.
The Basharat vs Garza market is chalk. Farid Basharat trades at 83c on Kalshi and 84c on Polymarket, a 1c cross-platform spread that leaves no arbitrage and confirms both books agree on the price. John Garza is the 17.5c underdog (18c Kalshi, 17c Polymarket), implying about a 17% chance of the upset. The favorite opened at 84c on both platforms overnight and is holding 83c to 84c, so there has been no meaningful movement into fight week.
Polymarket also lists round totals on the bout. The over 2.5 rounds market sits at 52c, close to a coin flip on whether the fight reaches the back half of the third round, while over 1.5 rounds trades at 63c and over 0.5 rounds at 81c. Those prices read as a market that expects the fight to get past the opening exchanges but is split on whether Basharat closes the show early or takes a decision.
Farid Basharat enters at 15-0, the last undefeated fighter in the UFC bantamweight division and a No. 10 ranked contender whose last six wins have all come inside the Octagon. That resume is the case for the 83.5c price. John Garza arrives at 6-1 on a five-fight winning streak, three of them by KO or TKO, and stepped in on roughly six days notice to replace the injured Ethyn Ewing. The short-notice debut is both the underdog's ceiling and its risk: Garza is live enough at 17.5c to justify the number, but taking a UFC debut against a ranked, undefeated opponent on a week of notice is why he is not closer to a coin flip.
The bout is a three-round bantamweight fight on the UFC 329 preliminary card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, under a main event of Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor. The market's read is straightforward: Basharat's experience and level of competition against a regional-circuit newcomer, with the round totals pricing the finish-versus-decision question at nearly even money.
The Basharat vs Garza market resolves on July 11, 2026, when the bout is decided at UFC 329. The moneyline settles to the fighter whose hand is raised by decision, knockout, submission, or stoppage. The round-total markets settle on how long the fight lasts. A no contest or a bout that is canceled or postponed past the card voids to platform-specific rules. Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the result is official.
Basharat vs Garza is one bout on a stacked UFC 329 card. The Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway main event anchors the night, with Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint-Denis and Cortez vs Wang also drawing cross-platform action. Track every fight and compare Kalshi and Polymarket prices across the sports board.
Resolves on July 11, 2026, when the Basharat vs Garza bantamweight bout is decided at UFC 329 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The moneyline settles to the fighter whose hand is raised, whether by decision, knockout, submission, or corner or referee stoppage. The round-total markets settle on how long the fight lasts. A no contest, or a bout that is canceled or postponed past the scheduled card, voids to each platform's specific rules. Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the official result is posted.
As of July 11, 2026, Farid Basharat is the favorite at about 83.5c (83c on Kalshi, 84c on Polymarket), an implied 83% chance to win. John Garza is the 17.5c underdog at 18c Kalshi and 17c Polymarket.
The moneyline trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with about $108K in combined volume. Polymarket also lists round totals, including over 2.5 rounds at 52c.
Farid Basharat, at 15-0 and undefeated in the UFC, is favored at roughly 83.5c, an implied 83% win probability. John Garza is 6-1 and making his UFC debut on short notice.
It resolves on July 11, 2026, when the bantamweight bout is decided at UFC 329 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Settlement follows the official result.
The over 2.5 rounds prop sits at 52c, nearly a coin flip on whether the fight goes long. Watch whether Basharat's finishing pressure or Garza's short-notice cardio moves that number before fight time.