| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Alouettes | -7.5 48% | O 45.5 54% | 77% | 77% Kalshi |
â–¶Redblacks | +7.5 52% | U 45.5 46% | 24% | 24% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Montreal Alouettes | -7.5 | O 45.5 | 77% Kalshi | |
â–¶Ottawa Redblacks | +7.5 | U 45.5 | 24% Kalshi |
No player props available for this game.
Montreal is the 77c road favorite at TD Place and the price is close to fair. The Alouettes are 6-1 with four straight wins and the league lead in the East; Ottawa is 0-6 and has dropped 12 consecutive regular-season meetings with Montreal since October 2022. The board is Kalshi-only, with no Polymarket line on either side, so there is no cross-platform spread here. Ottawa at 24c is the whole question, and the Redblacks have lost four of six by eight points or fewer, including 37-35 in Montreal on June 28.
Montreal is the 77c road favorite at TD Place and the board has barely moved. The Alouettes are 6-1 and have won four straight; the Redblacks are 0-6, the only winless team in the CFL, and are the cheapest side on any CFL board this week at 24c. The 12-point record gap is real, but Ottawa's margins are not: four of the six losses came by eight points or fewer, including a 37-35 defeat in Montreal on June 28 and a 36-34 four-overtime loss to Winnipeg on July 19.
Montreal has scored at least 29 points in all seven games and averages 34.1 points per game behind quarterback Davis Alexander. The defense is the softer half of the profile at 29.1 points allowed per game, which is why a 6-1 team carries only a plus-35 point differential. Receiver Tyson Philpot leads the CFL with 839 receiving yards and torched Ottawa for 198 yards on 12 catches in the June 28 meeting, though he was held to 32 yards in the 31-18 win over Hamilton on July 26. Defensive back Kabion Ento returns after missing four games with a hamstring injury, which matters against an Ottawa passing game that has been the team's one functional unit.
Ottawa is 0-6 in Ryan Dinwiddie's first season as head coach and general manager, averaging 25.5 points and allowing 35.5. Jake Maier remains the starter and threw for 344 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the four-overtime loss to Winnipeg, and receiver Ayden Eberhardt has averaged 124 receiving yards over the last two games. The structural problem is the defense, not the offense: 213 points allowed in six games is the worst mark in the league, and kicker Brett Lauther is on the six-game injured list in a matchup the market prices near a touchdown. Montreal has won 12 straight regular-season meetings with Ottawa dating to October 2022.
The moneyline has held. Ottawa traded between 23c and 24c across the overnight snapshot window into game day, leaving Montreal pinned at 76c to 77c with no directional flow. At 77c and 24c the two sides sum to 101c, a 1c overround, which is a tight quote for a board carrying only about $4.0K in total volume.
The spread ladder is the more interesting side of the board. Montreal -7.5 sits at 48c and is the most-traded rung at roughly $218 in volume, so the market's honest read is a Montreal win by a touchdown, right at a coin flip. Montreal -6.5 at 52c brackets it. The wider rungs are where thin liquidity shows: Montreal -13.5 at 39c and -20.5 at 38c are only 1c apart, which is a liquidity artifact rather than a real distribution, and Ottawa -3.5 at 10c prices a Redblacks win of any real size as a genuine long shot.
The totals ladder is thinner still. Over 59.5 trades at 56c and Over 73.5 at 25c, which interpolates to a market total in the low 60s. That lines up with the underlying scoring: Montreal at 34.1 points per game plus Ottawa at 25.5 gets to 59.6, and the defensive side of the ledger (Ottawa allowing 35.5, Montreal allowing 29.1) argues higher. The rungs at 45.5, 52.5 and 66.5 all printing 54c is stale quoting, not a signal, so treat the 59.5 and 73.5 rungs as the only usable reference points.
One structural note: this board is Kalshi-only. Polymarket has no line on either side, so there is no cross-platform spread, no consensus blend, and nothing on this game to compare between books. Every price on the page is a single-book quote.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at TD Place Stadium in Ottawa on Friday, July 31, 2026. Winning-side contracts pay $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0. The spread contracts settle against the final margin and the totals contracts against combined final points, with overtime included, which is not academic in a league that has already produced a four-overtime game involving Ottawa this season. If the game is postponed or canceled, the contracts settle under the platform's postponement rules rather than voiding automatically.
Ottawa's most recent home game, the four-overtime loss to Winnipeg, is the best read on how this team plays with a lead, and Montreal's 31-18 win over Hamilton is the most recent look at the Alouettes offense. Season-long exposure trades on the Grey Cup champion market, and the full slate plus standings context lives on the CFL league hub, the Alouettes team page and the Redblacks team page.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at TD Place Stadium in Ottawa on Friday, July 31, 2026. Winning-side contracts pay $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0. Spread contracts settle against the final margin and totals contracts against combined final points, with overtime included in both. Settlement follows the official CFL final score on the scheduled date, and the market closes on the platform once the game goes final. If the game is postponed or canceled, contracts settle under the platform postponement rules rather than voiding automatically.
As of July 31, 2026, Montreal is 77c and Ottawa is 24c on Kalshi, an implied 77% win probability for the Alouettes. The two sides sum to 101c, a 1c overround.
Kalshi only. Polymarket has no line on either side of this game, so there is no cross-platform comparison. Total board volume across the moneyline, spread and totals is roughly $4.0K.
Montreal at 77c, or about 77% implied. The spread ladder agrees: Montreal -7.5 is the most-traded rung at 48c, effectively a coin flip on a Montreal win by a touchdown.
When the game goes final at TD Place Stadium in Ottawa on Friday, July 31, 2026. Winning contracts pay $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0, with overtime counting toward spread and total settlement.
Over 59.5 trades at 56c and Over 73.5 at 25c, which implies a market total in the low 60s. Montreal averages 34.1 points per game and Ottawa 25.5, a combined 59.6.
Whether Ottawa announces a change at quarterback from Jake Maier, and whether the Montreal -7.5 rung moves off 48c. A move through 55c on that rung would signal real conviction in a comfortable Alouettes win.