A binary market on one hard question: will any person serve U.S. jail or prison time over the Epstein files the federal government began releasing on December 19, 2025, before the calendar turns to 2027? The contract trades across roughly $332K in cumulative volume on a single platform and resolves December 31, 2026. No U.S. charges have come off the documents so far, and the two arrests that did follow them happened in Britain, outside what this contract counts. The live board above carries the current price.
Two people have been arrested over what the Epstein files revealed, and both arrests happened in Britain. That is the structural problem for the Yes side of this contract, which pays only on a U.S. jail or prison term traced to files the federal government released on or after December 19, 2025. The board carries roughly $332K in cumulative volume, resolves December 31, 2026, and trades on a single platform. The live board above carries the current price.
The contract resolves Yes only if a specific causal chain closes inside the window. An individual has to serve time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison, and the cause of that incarceration has to be attributed to information inside the files the government released on or after December 19, 2025. Causation can be established through charging documents, court rulings, sentencing statements, or a clear consensus of credible reporting tying the jailing to those released files.
The word doing the heavy lifting is "new." Information that was already public before December 19, 2025 does not count, and neither does a jailing driven by reasons unrelated to the content of the released files. A person already under investigation who is later convicted on long-known evidence does not move this market. The disclosure has to be the documented driver.
What has actually been released sets the ceiling on how much qualifying material exists. The Justice Department published roughly 3.5 million responsive pages on January 30, 2026 under the Epstein Files Transparency Act that President Trump signed on November 19, 2025, and withheld roughly 2.5 million more. Much of what came out was heavily redacted. In early July 2026 the department filed papers defending those withholdings, and on August 13, 2026 Senior U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan warned DOJ lawyers in open court that defying his orders would follow their careers, pressing them on unexplained name redactions, missing handwritten FBI interview notes, and a blown Federal Register deadline. That compliance fight, not any prosecution, is the engine under this price.
The two highest-profile enforcement actions traceable to the disclosures both landed in the wrong jurisdiction for this contract. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested on February 19, 2026 on suspicion of misconduct in public office over material in the files, and was released the same day without charge. Peter Mandelson, the former UK ambassador to Washington, was arrested days later on the same suspicion and released on bail, also without charge. British police custody is not a U.S. jail or prison, so neither event resolves this market Yes no matter how it ends.
Inside the United States the record is emptier. Federal prosecutors have brought no new charges off the documents, and no U.S. arrests have been attributed to them. Ghislaine Maxwell is the one person serving time in connection with Epstein, and her conviction rests on evidence that long predates December 2025, which the resolution language carves out explicitly.
The price has tracked that record. This contract traded at 14c on June 1, 2026, collapsed to 4c by the middle of June, and has held a 7c to 9c band through August. The rebound is a redaction-fight rebound, not a charging-development rebound. The companion contract on whether anyone is merely charged trades several cents above this one, and that spread is the market pricing the distance between an indictment and a cell served inside twelve months.
The market resolves December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It pays Yes if, by that deadline, any individual has served time in a U.S. federal, state, or local jail or prison with the incarceration attributed to information in Epstein-related files released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025. The resolution source is official court records or government statements, with a consensus of credible reporting available as a backstop. Anything short of a documented, disclosure-driven U.S. incarceration resolves No.
The direct upstream question sits on the Epstein charges market, which asks only whether anyone is charged over the disclosures and therefore clears a materially lower bar than this one. For who the files actually implicate, the Epstein files named market prices individual names appearing in 2026 releases, with Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, and Prince Andrew as the top-priced entries. The Jeffrey Epstein alive market tracks the conspiracy-flavored contract on the same name, and the Bill Clinton testimony market trades a congressional appearance rather than a criminal one. Browse the culture prediction markets hub for the rest of the disclosure and conspiracy board.
Resolves December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market pays Yes if, by that deadline, any individual serves any time in a U.S. federal, state, or local jail or prison and the cause of that incarceration is attributed to information contained in Epstein-related files released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025. Causation may be established through official charging documents, court rulings, sentencing statements, or a clear consensus of credible reporting. Incarceration driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released files, does not qualify, and custody outside the United States does not qualify. The resolution source is official court records or government statements, with a consensus of credible reporting available as a backstop. If no qualifying incarceration occurs by the deadline, the market resolves No.
The Yes side traded at 7c as of August 18, 2026, against roughly $332K in cumulative volume on a single platform. That is up from a 4c low in mid-June 2026 and down from 14c on June 1, 2026.
It resolves December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It pays Yes only if someone has served U.S. jail or prison time attributed to information in Epstein-related files released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025.
The contract trades on Polymarket only, so the live board reads as a one-sided book rather than a cross-platform spread. There is no matching Kalshi contract on this question today.
No U.S. charges have been brought off the released documents. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and Peter Mandelson were arrested in Britain in February 2026 on suspicion of misconduct in public office and both were released without charge, and British custody does not qualify under this contract.
Watch Judge Emmet Sullivan’s compliance rulings after his August 13, 2026 contempt warning, the release schedule for the roughly 2.5 million withheld pages, and any U.S. charging document that names the released files as its basis. With a hard December 31, 2026 deadline, a case filed late in the year runs out of runway before sentencing.