The 2026 ESPYS Best Breakthrough Athlete award is decided July 15, 2026, and four names carry the race: Olympic and world figure skating champion Alysa Liu, Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, San Jose Sharks rookie Macklin Celebrini, and Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. Kalshi has Liu as the runaway favorite over Mendoza, with Celebrini and Maye as long shots. The live board above ranks the current prices; the winner is announced live from the Dolby Theatre that night.
The Best Breakthrough Athlete ESPY has gone to an NBA rookie phenom, a teenage Olympian, and a college superstar in recent years, and the 2026 field keeps that pattern intact. Four athletes carry the 2026 Best Breakthrough Athlete ESPY race: figure skater Alysa Liu, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, San Jose Sharks center Macklin Celebrini, and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. Kalshi's board treats it as a two-name contest between Liu and Mendoza, with the award decided live on July 15, 2026.
Alysa Liu is the runaway favorite on Kalshi's Best Breakthrough Athlete ESPY board, and the resume is why. Liu won gold at the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships with 222.97 points, becoming the first American woman to win the world title in 19 years, then won figure skating gold at the 2026 Winter Olympics. That arc followed a comeback most athletes never attempt. Liu was the youngest US champion in history at age 13 in 2019, retired from the sport at 16, and returned to the ice in 2024. An Olympic gold inside the eligibility window is the kind of signature moment that has decided this category before.
Fernando Mendoza is the closest challenger on the board. In his first year at Indiana after transferring from California, Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman Trophy, the first in program history, after leading the Hoosiers to a 13-0 regular season. He threw for a nation-leading 33 touchdowns and 2,980 yards before the vote, collected 643 first-place Heisman ballots, and became the first player to finish first in all six Heisman regions since Caleb Williams in 2022. He then led Indiana past Alabama, Oregon, and Miami to the school's first national title. Heisman winners are perennial Best Breakthrough Athlete ESPY contenders.
Macklin Celebrini is the hockey entry in the field. The first overall pick of the 2024 NHL draft, Celebrini led all NHL rookies in points per game at 0.90 and posted 25 goals and 38 assists for 63 points in 70 games with San Jose. He became the fastest rookie in Sharks history to reach 40 points and earned NHL All-Rookie honors, though he finished third in Calder Trophy voting behind Lane Hutson. On the board he sits well behind Liu and Mendoza.
Drake Maye rounds out the Best Breakthrough Athlete ESPY nominees. The Patriots quarterback made the 2025 Pro Bowl after a second-year leap: 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a 72% completion rate that led the NFL and set a franchise record. He lost the MVP award to Matthew Stafford by five voting points, and in a Week 17 win over the Jets he went 19-of-21 for 256 yards and five touchdowns. On the board he trades as a long shot.
The Best Breakthrough Athlete ESPY has been handed out since 1993, and since 2004 it has been decided by online fan voting from an ESPN-selected slate. The recent honor roll shows how wide the net runs. Ilona Maher of USA Rugby won in 2025. USC basketball star JuJu Watkins won in 2024, and LSU's Angel Reese won in 2023, the first back-to-back women winners in the category's history. Freestyle skier Eileen Gu took the 2022 award. LaMelo Ball of the Charlotte Hornets won in 2021 after being named NBA Rookie of the Year. The award was not presented in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Saquon Barkley won in 2019 during his New York Giants rookie season, and Donovan Mitchell of the Utah Jazz won in 2018. No athlete has ever won this category twice.
The 2026 Best Breakthrough Athlete ESPY resolves on Wednesday, July 15, 2026, when ESPN announces the winner live from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. The broadcast begins at 8pm ET. Because the winner is chosen by online fan voting from a slate set by the ESPN Select Nominating Committee, voting closes before the show and the result is locked when ESPN reveals it on air. The winning nominee's contract pays $1 per share and every other nominee resolves to zero. See the live board above for where each nominee trades heading into the ceremony.
The 2026 ESPYS carry a full slate beyond Best Breakthrough Athlete. Figure skating and Olympic fans following Alysa Liu can look at the Best Athlete, Women's ESPY 2026 race, hockey fans at the Best NHL Player ESPY 2026 board, and football fans at the Best NFL Player ESPY 2026 market. The night's top team honor trades on the Best Team ESPY 2026 board. Browse more sports prediction markets for the full ESPYS slate.
The 2026 ESPYS Best Breakthrough Athlete award resolves on the night of Wednesday, July 15, 2026, when ESPN announces the winner live from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles during the broadcast that begins at 8pm ET. The award is chosen by online fan voting from a slate set by the ESPN Select Nominating Committee, so the resolution source is ESPN's official on-air announcement. The winning nominee's contract pays $1 per share and every other nominee resolves to zero. If the ceremony is postponed, the market resolves once ESPN confirms the winner, and a tie resolves per each platform's stated tie rules.
Alysa Liu is the favorite on Kalshi at 66c as of July 11, 2026, ahead of Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza at 30c. Liu won 2026 Winter Olympics gold and the 2025 world figure skating title.
It resolves the night of Wednesday, July 15, 2026, when ESPN announces the winner live from the Dolby Theatre. The broadcast starts at 8pm ET.
The named field is Alysa Liu, Fernando Mendoza, Macklin Celebrini and Drake Maye, plus a Tie contract. Liu and Mendoza are the two front-runners on the board.
The market is on Kalshi under the KXESPYS series and is also listed on Polymarket. Each nominee trades as a separate Yes or No contract that pays out if that athlete wins.
Fan voting closes ahead of the July 15, 2026 show, so watch for late voting pushes from figure skating, college football and NFL audiences. Alysa Liu's Olympic gold is the resume to beat.