Scottie Scheffler won Best Golfer at the 2026 ESPYS on July 15, 2026, ahead of Masters champion Rory McIlroy, Nelly Korda and Jeeno Thitikul. Kalshi had Scheffler as the favorite at every daily close and at 86% the night before the show. Kalshi and Polymarket both settled Scheffler Yes on July 16.
Resolved July 15, 2026.
Scottie Scheffler won Best Golfer at the 2026 ESPYS on July 15, 2026, and the fan vote went where the market said it would. Kalshi had Scheffler ahead at every daily close and at 86% the night before the show. Rory McIlroy, who beat him by one shot at the Masters in April, was a distant second.
ESPN announced the nominees on June 25, 2026: Scheffler, McIlroy, Nelly Korda and Jeeno Thitikul. Fans voted on ESPN.com until noon ET on July 15, and ESPN's official winners list named Scheffler after the 8 p.m. ET show on ABC from the David H. Koch Theater at Lincoln Center in New York.
Kalshi listed the four golfers plus a Tie contract. It closed the event at 10:05 a.m. ET on July 16 and settled Scheffler Yes and the other four contracts No at 10:35 a.m. ET. Polymarket's "2026 ESPY Awards: Best Golfer" event closed its Scheffler market at 1:38 a.m. ET on July 16 and resolved it Yes. McIlroy, Korda and Thitikul resolved No, along with six placeholder slots ("Athlete A" through "Athlete E" and "Other") that never traded.
Kalshi's event drew about 55,400 contracts: about 19,000 on Scheffler, 13,100 on McIlroy and 12,900 on Korda. Polymarket's event drew about $1,200.
Scheffler's record from the 2025 Open Championship through the nominations, per ESPN's PGA Tour results (dates are final rounds):
| Event | Date | Scheffler |
| The Open Championship | Jul 20, 2025 | Won at 17 under, four ahead of Harris English |
| BMW Championship | Aug 17, 2025 | Won at 15 under |
| Procore Championship | Sep 14, 2025 | Won at 19 under |
| The American Express | Jan 25, 2026 | Won at 27 under, four ahead |
| Masters Tournament | Apr 12, 2026 | Second at 11 under, one behind McIlroy |
McIlroy's case was that Masters. He won at 12 under on April 12, 2026, one shot ahead of Scheffler, for his second straight green jacket. He was the only other nominee Kalshi priced above 10% at a daily close. Korda and Thitikul gave the ballot its LPGA side, and neither closed above 10% after the first full day of trading.
No other men's major went to a nominee before voting closed. Aaron Rai won the 2026 PGA Championship on May 17 and Wyndham Clark won the U.S. Open on June 21, so McIlroy's Masters was the only 2026 men's major won by a nominee.
Kalshi listed the category on June 30. The table uses Kalshi's midnight ET closes plus one show-day reading. "About" marks a bid/ask midpoint where the last trade sat outside the quote.
| Kalshi (ET) | Scottie Scheffler | Rory McIlroy |
| Jul 1 close | about 82% | 14% |
| Jul 4 close | 69% | 27% |
| Jul 12 close | 74% | about 20% |
| Jul 14 close (night before) | 86% | 16% |
| Jul 15, noon (voting closes) | 88% | 11% |
Scheffler opened as the favorite and never lost the lead at a daily close. McIlroy's best well-quoted close was 27% on July 4. Trading thinned in the final week, and the July 14 close came with a 71% bid and a 90% ask on Scheffler, so the 86% print is a wide-spread reading.
The show itself produced the only wobble. In the first hour of the telecast, Scheffler slipped to about 68% while McIlroy rose to 28%. By midnight ET Scheffler was at 99%.
Polymarket's book never formed. Its four nominee prices summed to close to 200% the night before the show, all within a few points of 50%, which is what an untraded market looks like. The Kalshi prices are the ones to read.
No 2027 ESPYS market is listed yet. Scheffler kept winning after the show: ESPN's results have him taking the FedEx St. Jude Championship on August 16, 2026 and the Tour Championship on August 30, 2026. The week after the ESPYS, the 2026 Open Championship went to Ryan Fox by one shot on July 19. Live golf boards are on the golf hub.
Other 2026 ESPYS boards include 2026 ESPYS Best Fighter, won by Terence Crawford, 2026 ESPYS Best Athlete, Men's Sports, won by Jalen Brunson, and 2026 ESPYS Best Team. More awards boards are on the entertainment hub.
Resolved to the nominee named Best Golfer at the 2026 ESPYS, presented July 15, 2026 at the David H. Koch Theater at Lincoln Center in New York and broadcast at 8 p.m. ET on ABC. ESPN set the four-nominee field (Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Nelly Korda and Jeeno Thitikul) and fans voted on ESPN.com, with voting closing at noon ET on July 15. On Kalshi, each nominee contract resolved Yes if that golfer won, and a separate Tie contract covered a shared award. Polymarket listed no Tie contract: a tie, or no winner declared by August 31, 2026, would have resolved to the listed nominee whose name comes first in alphabetical order, with the ESPYS broadcast and ESPN's website as the resolution source. Each contract paid $1 per share on a Yes. Kalshi closed the market at 10:05 a.m. ET on July 16, 2026 and settled Scheffler Yes and all other contracts No at 10:35 a.m. ET. Polymarket's Scheffler market closed at 1:38 a.m. ET on July 16 and resolved Yes.
Scottie Scheffler won it on July 15, 2026, ahead of Rory McIlroy, Nelly Korda and Jeeno Thitikul.
Kalshi closed the market at 10:05 a.m. ET on July 16, 2026, then settled Scheffler Yes and the other four contracts, including Tie, No at 10:35 a.m. ET. Polymarket's Scheffler market closed at 1:38 a.m. ET on July 16 and resolved Yes.
Kalshi had Scheffler at 86% and McIlroy at 16% at the close on July 14, the night before the show, on a thin book with a 71% bid and 90% ask on Scheffler. He reached 99% by midnight ET on show night.
The fan vote on ESPN.com, which closed at noon ET on July 15, 2026. Scheffler's case was a four-shot win at the 2025 Open Championship plus three more PGA Tour wins, against McIlroy's one-shot win over him at the 2026 Masters.
No 2027 ESPYS market is listed yet. Scheffler won the FedEx St. Jude Championship on August 16 and the Tour Championship on August 30, 2026, and live golf boards are on the Prediction Genius golf hub.