The Pittsburgh Pirates missed the 2026 MLB playoffs despite an 82-80 record, their first winning season since 2018. They were eliminated on September 18, six games behind the final National League wild card, after a 3-12 stretch from July 28 to August 12 knocked them out of a playoff spot for good. Polymarket resolved the contract No on September 19 and Kalshi settled it No on September 20.
Resolved September 18, 2026.
The Pittsburgh Pirates finished 82-80, their first winning season since 2018, and still missed the 2026 MLB playoffs. They were eliminated on September 18 on a night they beat Kansas City 8-5, because San Diego's win over Miami put all three National League wild-card holders at 85 wins, the most Pittsburgh could still reach. Kalshi had the Pirates at 40% at the March 25 close and at 1% the day before elimination.
| Team | W-L | Games behind third wild card |
| San Diego Padres | 91-71 | 1st wild card |
| Chicago Cubs | 89-73 | 2nd wild card |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 88-74 | 3rd wild card |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 86-76 | 2.0 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 82-80 | 6.0 |
Final standings are from the MLB Stats API. Pittsburgh scored 767 runs and allowed 739, a +28 differential, and finished third in the NL Central, 21 games behind Milwaukee. It was the club's first winning record since it went 82-79 in 2018.
Polymarket closed its Pirates contract at 2:49 a.m. ET on September 19 and resolved it No. Kalshi settled Pittsburgh No at 5:50 p.m. ET on September 20, in the same batch as Miami, St. Louis and Atlanta. The Kalshi contract traded about 425K contracts and the Polymarket contract about $9K.
For four months Pittsburgh was in the race. Then two bad weeks ended it.
The Pirates closed by winning seven of their last ten, which turned a losing season into a winning one. The nearest they got to the last wild card after August 12 was 4.5 games, on September 4 and again on September 10.
Kalshi end-of-day prices for the Pittsburgh contract:
| Date (ET close) | Pirates | Record |
| Mar 25 (eve of Opening Day) | 40% | 0-0 |
| Apr 7 | 52% | 7-4 |
| Jun 5 | 48% | 34-30, third wild card |
| Jul 27 | 38% | 55-52, third wild card |
| Jul 31 | 15% | 55-56 |
| Aug 12 | 5% | 58-64 |
| Aug 19 (30 days out) | 6% | 63-66 |
| Sep 11 (7 days out) | 3% | 74-74 |
| Sep 17 (day before) | 1% | 76-77 |
For most of the first half the market treated Pittsburgh as close to a coin flip, which matched a team hovering around the last playoff spot. Even while holding the third wild card on July 27, the contract was 38%, below even money. The collapse came in four days: the losing streak from July 28 to July 31 took the price from 38% to 15%, and by August 12 it was 5%.
The September run barely moved it. At 74-74 on September 11, still 5.5 games out with 14 to play, the contract was 3%. The market read the math correctly: a hot finish could fix the record but not the standings.
Polymarket's contract was thin, about $9K traded, and spent part of April far from Kalshi. It closed at 66% on April 21, when Kalshi had the Pirates at 48%. By mid-August the two venues matched, both at 6% on August 18.
The division went to Milwaukee at 103-59, recorded in the resolved 2026 NL Central market. The Brewers beat San Diego 3-1 in the Division Series after the Padres took the top wild card, covered in the resolved Padres 2026 playoff market. The St. Louis Cardinals 2026 playoff market settled the same night as Pittsburgh's.
Milwaukee led the Dodgers 3-0 in the NL Championship Series going into Game 4 on October 15. The 2026 NL pennant market prices that series and the 2026 World Series market prices the title. The Pittsburgh Pirates hub collects every live Pirates board.
Resolved Yes if the Pittsburgh Pirates qualified for the 2026 MLB postseason, the 12-team field of three division winners and three wild cards in each league, and No otherwise. Kalshi's contract asked whether Pittsburgh would be one of the 2026 playoff qualifiers. Polymarket's contract resolved Yes if the team clinched a postseason spot under MLB rules and No once it became mathematically eliminated, and also No if the playoffs were cancelled, pushed past October 31, 2026, or the full 12-team field was not confirmed by then; it did not count any tiebreaker or Game 163 as part of the playoffs. MLB no longer plays tiebreaker games and settles ties for a berth by formula. Polymarket closed its contract at 2:49 a.m. ET on September 19, 2026 and resolved it No, and Kalshi settled it No at 5:50 p.m. ET on September 20, after MLB's standings marked Pittsburgh eliminated on September 18.
No. The Pittsburgh Pirates finished 82-80, six games behind Philadelphia for the third National League wild card, and were eliminated on September 18, 2026.
Polymarket closed its Pirates contract at 2:49 a.m. ET on September 19, 2026 and resolved it No. Kalshi settled Pittsburgh No at 5:50 p.m. ET on September 20.
Kalshi had Pittsburgh at 3% on September 11, a week before elimination, and 1% the day before. The contract was 52% on April 7 and 38% on July 27, the last day the Pirates held a wild card.
A 3-12 stretch from July 28 to August 12 that took Pittsburgh from 55-52 and the third wild card to 58-64 and six games out. A 15-9 September could not close the gap.
Division rival Milwaukee led the Dodgers 3-0 in the NL Championship Series going into Game 4 on October 15. The NL pennant and World Series markets settle when the postseason ends.