The Washington Nationals missed the 2026 MLB playoffs, eliminated on September 13 and finishing 77-85, fourth in the NL East and 11 games behind the final National League wild card. They shared the last wild card as late as June 22, then a seven-game losing streak from July 29 to August 4 ended their chase. Polymarket resolved the contract No on September 14 and Kalshi settled it No the same night.
Resolved September 13, 2026.
The Washington Nationals were eliminated from the 2026 MLB playoff race on September 13, the same day they beat the Angels 6-5 for their third straight one-run win. San Diego's 6-4 win at San Francisco that day took the Padres to 81 wins, the most Washington could still reach, and MLB's standings marked the Nationals out. They finished 77-85, fourth in the NL East. Kalshi priced Washington at 6% before Opening Day and at 24% on June 15, when the Nationals held a share of the third wild card.
Washington finished 17 games behind Atlanta in the division and 11 games behind Philadelphia for the third National League wild card, according to the MLB Stats API final standings. The record hides an unusual run profile. The Nationals scored 821 runs, third in the National League behind the Cubs and Brewers, and allowed 815, the third-most in the league. A +6 run differential came with eight more losses than wins.
Polymarket closed its Nationals contract at 2:36 a.m. ET on September 14, after the elimination, and resolved it No. Kalshi closed its Washington contract at 10:48 p.m. ET on September 14 and settled it No at 11:18 p.m. ET, alongside the Mets. The Kalshi contract traded about 105K contracts. The Polymarket contract traded about $17K, the most of any NL East team outside Philadelphia. This page's board carries only the Kalshi leg; Polymarket's contract on the same question sits on a separate board.
Washington spent two months on the edge of the race and two weeks falling out of it.
Washington still had a say in the race after it was out. On September 18 the Nationals beat St. Louis 9-1 at Busch Stadium, the loss that eliminated the Cardinals.
Kalshi end-of-day prices for the Washington contract:
| Date (ET close) | Nationals | Record |
| Mar 24 (two days before the opener) | 6% | 0-0 |
| Jun 15 | 24% | 38-35, tied for third wild card |
| Jun 22 | 18% | 41-38, tied for third wild card |
| Jul 26 | 16% | 54-52, one game out |
| Aug 4 | 4% | 55-60 |
| Aug 14 (30 days out) | 4% | 60-64 |
| Sep 5 (8 days out) | 1% | 67-77 |
| Sep 10 (last trade) | 1% | 67-81 |
The June 22 figure is the bid/ask midpoint, because the last trade sat below the closing bid. After September 5 the contract traded on only one day, September 10, at 1%, and the bid and ask sat at 0% and 1% into the elimination.
Kalshi never treated Washington as a likely playoff team, and it was right. Even in mid-June, with the Nationals sharing the last wild card, the contract closed no higher than 24%. The seven-game losing streak finished it: the price went from 16% on July 26 to 4% on August 4.
Polymarket's contract was priced higher early. On April 30 it closed at 26% while Kalshi had Washington at 6%. By mid-August the two venues were close, at 4% and 2% on August 17.
Atlanta, which swept four games from Washington during that July skid, won the division, recorded in the resolved 2026 NL East market, and clinched its berth on September 18, covered in the Braves 2026 playoff market. The Mets 2026 playoff market settled the same night as Washington's on Kalshi, and the Cardinals 2026 playoff market records the race the Nationals helped end.
Milwaukee led the Dodgers 3-0 in the NL Championship Series going into Game 4 on October 15. The 2026 NL pennant market prices that series and the 2026 World Series market prices the title. The Washington Nationals hub collects every live Nationals board.
Resolved Yes if the Washington Nationals qualified for the 2026 MLB postseason, the 12-team field of three division winners and three wild cards in each league, and No otherwise. Kalshi's contract asked whether Washington would be one of the 2026 playoff qualifiers. Polymarket's contract resolved Yes if the team clinched a postseason spot under MLB rules and No once it became mathematically eliminated, and also No if the playoffs were cancelled, pushed past October 31, 2026, or the full 12-team field was not confirmed by then; it did not count any tiebreaker or Game 163 as part of the playoffs. MLB no longer plays tiebreaker games and settles ties for a berth by formula. Polymarket closed its contract at 2:36 a.m. ET on September 14, 2026 and resolved it No, and Kalshi closed its contract at 10:48 p.m. ET on September 14 and settled it No at 11:18 p.m. ET, after Washington was eliminated on September 13.
No. The Washington Nationals were eliminated on September 13, 2026 and finished 77-85, fourth in the NL East and 11 games behind the final National League wild card.
Polymarket closed its Nationals contract at 2:36 a.m. ET on September 14, 2026 and resolved it No. Kalshi settled Washington No at 11:18 p.m. ET on September 14.
Kalshi had Washington at 1% on September 5, eight days before elimination, and its last trade, on September 10, was also at 1%. It was 6% before Opening Day and 24% on June 15.
A seven-game losing streak from July 29 to August 4, which took Washington from one game out to 5.5 games out. An 11-18 August ended the chase.
The postseason continues without Washington: Milwaukee led the Dodgers 3-0 in the NL Championship Series going into Game 4 on October 15. The NL pennant and World Series markets settle when those series end.