Seattle Seahawks 2026 playoff odds sit on the defending Super Bowl champion, a 14-3 team that allowed a league-low 292 points and beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX. The board is a single Kalshi yes/no carrying roughly $18.6K in lifetime volume, and it settles January 11, 2027, the day after Seattle closes the season at the Rams. The live board above has the current number; this page covers the schedule and roster math sitting under it.
Seattle won Super Bowl LX. The Seahawks went 14-3, took the NFC's number one seed, allowed 292 points (fewest in the NFL), and closed the year 29-13 over New England at Levi's Stadium on February 8, 2026. Then the market looked at the 2026 season and priced them as the second-most-likely playoff team in their own division. The distance between what Seattle just did and where this contract trades is the entire question on this page.
Mike Macdonald enters his third season in Seattle. Year one was 10-7 and no playoffs. Year two was 14-3 and a title, with a postseason run that went through both NFC West rivals: 41-6 over San Francisco in the divisional round, 31-27 over the Rams in the NFC Championship Game.
Sam Darnold is back after throwing for 4,048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions at 8.5 yards per attempt, with a 99.1 passer rating and only 27 sacks taken behind Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is why that line held: 119 catches on 163 targets for 1,793 yards, 15.1 per reception and 10 touchdowns. Cooper Kupp returns off a quieter first Seattle year, 47 catches for 593 yards and 2 touchdowns in 16 games. Rashid Shaheed, acquired from New Orleans during the 2025 season, added 15 catches for 188 yards across nine Seattle games and is the deep speed meant to open the field underneath Smith-Njigba.
The defense is the engine. Seattle's 292 points allowed led the league, the 47 sacks were the pressure behind it, and Ernest Jones IV, Devon Witherspoon, Nick Emmanwori, Byron Murphy II, Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence all return. Trevon Diggs, a Cowboy for most of 2025, is now on the Seattle roster; Riq Woolen is now with Philadelphia. The real subtraction is at running back, where Kenneth Walker III carried 27 times for 135 yards in Super Bowl LX and now plays for Kansas City. Zach Charbonnet is the most established back left in the room.
The NFC West put three of its four teams in the 2025 postseason. Seattle took the one seed, the Rams went 12-5 while scoring a league-high 518 points as the five seed, and the 49ers went 12-5 as the six seed. Only Arizona, at 3-14 and 0-6 in the division, stayed home. Seattle plays that group twice each again.
The most revealing thing about this contract is that the market prices the Rams ahead of the defending champions. Compare the board above against the Rams playoff contract and the 49ers playoff contract yourself. As of August 24, 2026 the four NFC West yes prices summed to roughly 210c, which is the market expecting about two of these four teams in the field rather than the three that made it last January.
The schedule is why. Ten of Seattle's 17 games in 2026 come against teams that reached the 2025 playoffs. Week 1 is New England at Lumen Field, a Super Bowl LX rematch against a team that went 14-3 and took the AFC two seed. The AFC West crossover adds Denver, the 14-3 AFC one seed, and the 11-6 Chargers. Philadelphia, Chicago and Carolina fill in the rest, and four of the 17 dates are against the Rams and 49ers. The finale is Week 18 at the Rams on January 10, 2027, one day before this market settles.
Seattle also has direct evidence that 10 wins is not a safe number here. In 2024 the Seahawks went 10-7 and finished as the NFC's eighth seed, one spot outside the field, in a division the Rams won at the same 10-7. As of August 24, 2026 the 10-or-more-wins rung on the Seahawks win total market carried the same price as this playoff contract, so the market is effectively calling 10 wins the line again.
One number underneath the 14-3 record cuts against a straight repeat. Seattle finished 2025 at a -3 turnover differential, 25 takeaways against 28 giveaways, while posting a +191 point differential that led the NFL. Fourteen-win teams almost always win the turnover battle. Seattle won 14 games while losing it, which means the record rested on a defense that allowed 292 points rather than on a takeaway rate due to regress. That reading favors the yes side; the schedule works the other way.
The contract settles January 11, 2027, the morning after Seattle closes the regular season at the Rams. It resolves yes if Seattle is one of the seven NFC teams in the 2026-27 playoff field, reached either by winning the NFC West or by taking one of the three wild-card spots, and no otherwise. NFL tiebreakers decide the final seed, and a berth earned on a tiebreaker settles identically to one clinched outright. Nothing after the field is set changes the payout.
The berth question is only the entry point. The NFC West division market prices the head-to-head with Los Angeles and San Francisco directly, the NFC Championship market prices Seattle's path back to the title game, and the Super Bowl LXI market carries the repeat odds. Every Seattle contract on the site is collected on the Seahawks team hub.
Resolves yes if the Seattle Seahawks are one of the seven NFC teams in the 2026-27 NFL playoff field, and no otherwise. Qualification comes either from winning the NFC West or from claiming one of the conference's three wild-card spots, determined by the final 2026 regular-season standings after Seattle's Week 18 game at the Los Angeles Rams on January 10, 2027. Settlement is January 11, 2027. A berth earned through NFL tiebreaker procedure settles identically to one clinched outright, and results once the postseason begins do not affect the contract.
The market prices Seattle as a favorite to reach the 2026-27 NFL playoffs, though not the favorite in its own division. The live board above carries the current yes price across roughly $18.6K in lifetime volume.
It settles January 11, 2027, the day after Seattle finishes the regular season at the Los Angeles Rams on January 10. Yes pays if the Seahawks take one of the seven NFC playoff spots.
The contract trades on Kalshi as a single yes/no on Seattle qualifying. Polymarket does not list a matching Seahawks playoff-qualifier question, so Kalshi carries all of the roughly $18.6K in lifetime volume on this board.
Yes. As of August 24, 2026 the yes side traded at 69c on Kalshi, an implied 69% chance, which ranked second in the NFC West behind the Los Angeles Rams at 79c despite Seattle winning Super Bowl LX.
Watch Sam Darnold's health, the replacement of Kenneth Walker III in the run game, and the front half of a schedule with ten games against 2025 playoff teams. Seattle went 10-7 in 2024 and missed the field as the eighth seed, so the margin is thinner than a 14-3 season suggests.