Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Prediction Market Odds, July 29, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Orioles | +1.5 57%80% | O 1 45%45% | 40%40% | 40% Kalshi |
â–¶Tigers | -1.5 43%20% | U 1 55%55% | 62%61% | 62% Kalshi |
Detroit is the 61c home favorite (61c Kalshi, 61c Polymarket) over Baltimore at 40c, a rare case of the market backing the team with the worse record. The Tigers sit 51-57 to the Orioles' 52-56, but the moneyline is pricing the arms: Detroit starts Tarik Skubal and his 2.70 ERA, Baltimore counters with Trevor Rogers at 4.17. Both books agree to the cent on the moneyline, and the run line has Detroit at -1.5 for 42.5c against Baltimore at 28.5c. First pitch is at Comerica Park on July 29, 2026, with about $14.5K in combined volume across the board above.
Detroit is the 61c home favorite over Baltimore at 40c, a rare board where the market backs the team with the worse record. The Tigers are 51-57 and the Orioles 52-56, yet the moneyline leans Detroit because of one name: Tarik Skubal, who carries a 2.70 ERA into his start against Trevor Rogers and his 4.17 mark. The live board above ranks the current cross-platform prices; this page covers what is driving them.
Orioles vs Tigers Market Context
Baltimore comes in at 52-56 overall (23-29 on the road), Detroit at 51-57 (30-26 at home), so the standings are nearly a coin flip. The moneyline is not. Detroit sits at 61c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with Baltimore at 40c across both books, an implied edge of roughly 61% to the home side. That gap is a pitching read more than a team-quality read: the Orioles counter Skubal with Trevor Rogers, whose 4.17 ERA and 6-7 record leave Baltimore as the clear underdog even against a sub-.500 opponent. Baltimore's offense runs through Pete Alonso (.250, 22 HR, 67 RBI), the only Oriole priced with meaningful home run and total-base props on the board.
The Skubal vs Rogers Pitching Matchup
Skubal is the story and the market knows it. His strikeout ladder is priced like an ace: 5-plus strikeouts trades at 92c, the Over/Under 5.5 line sits at 73.5c, the 6.5 at 65c, and the 7.5 at 54.5c, implying the market expects him near seven punchouts against a Baltimore lineup hitting .250 at the top. Rogers, by contrast, carries a modest strikeout profile, with his Over/Under 2.5 at 74.5c and the 3.5 at 64c. Detroit's own bats are led by Dillon Dingler (22 HR, 68 RBI) and Kevin McGonigle (.289), and the run-scoring props reflect the home edge, with Detroit over 1.5 runs at 89c to Baltimore's 80c. The market is paying for the arm, not the standings.
Run Line, Total, and Line Movement
The run line prices Detroit at -1.5 for 42.5c (43c Kalshi, 42c Polymarket) and Baltimore at -1.5 for 28.5c, so the market leans toward a one-run-plus Tigers win rather than a blowout, with the -2.5 alt at 31.5c for Detroit. The total sits at Over/Under 8.5 runs at 45.5c (46c Kalshi, 45c Polymarket), a moderate number consistent with Skubal suppressing runs. On movement, the Detroit moneyline has held firm: it opened the tracked window at 61c and never left it, staying at 61c on Kalshi while volume on the Tigers side climbed from about $5.6K to $6.4K. A flat line on rising volume is a market growing more confident, not one drifting. Kalshi and Polymarket agree to the cent on the moneyline, so there is no cross-platform edge on the winner. The divergence is in the props: Pete Alonso to hit a home run trades at 21c on Kalshi versus 39c on Polymarket, an 18c spread on the same outcome and the sharpest cross-book gap on the board.
When the Orioles vs Tigers Market Resolves
The market resolves when the game goes final at Comerica Park on July 29, 2026. The moneyline pays the team that wins, the run line settles on the final margin, and the total settles Over or Under 8.5 based on combined runs scored. A postponement pushes settlement to the make-up date under each platform's official rules.
Key Orioles vs Tigers Factors
Tarik Skubal (2.70 ERA) is the single biggest reason Detroit is favored at 61c despite a 51-57 record. Trevor Rogers (4.17 ERA, 6-7) gives Baltimore a strikeout-light start, with his Over/Under 2.5 at 74.5c against Skubal's 6.5 at 65c. The Detroit moneyline held flat at 61c across the tracked window as volume rose, a firm rather than drifting line. Cross-platform pricing is identical on the moneyline (61c both books) but splits 18c on the Pete Alonso home run prop (21c Kalshi, 39c Polymarket). The run line at Detroit -1.5 (42.5c) and the total at 8.5 (45.5c) frame the expected shape: a modest-scoring home win.
Related MLB Markets
Track the full slate of MLB prediction markets for cross-platform pricing on every game, or follow the team hubs for the Detroit Tigers and the Baltimore Orioles to see how each club's moneyline and futures prices move across the season.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to the team that wins the Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers game at Comerica Park on July 29, 2026. The moneyline pays $1 per share on the winning team and $0 on the loser. The run line settles on the final margin of victory, with a team covering -1.5 only if it wins by two runs or more, and the total settles Over or Under 8.5 based on combined runs scored. If the game is postponed or suspended, the contracts settle per each platform official rules for rescheduled or shortened games, typically once the game becomes official or on the resumption date.
Key Factors
- Tarik Skubal (2.70 ERA) starting for Detroit is the single biggest reason the Tigers are favored at 61c despite a 51-57 record
- Trevor Rogers (4.17 ERA, 6-7) gives Baltimore a strikeout-light start, with his Over/Under 2.5 at 74.5c against Skubal 6.5 at 65c
- Detroit moneyline held flat at 61c across the tracked window on rising volume, a firm line rather than a drifting one
- Cross-platform spread is zero on the moneyline (61c both books) but 18c on the Pete Alonso home run prop (21c Kalshi, 39c Polymarket)
- Run line prices Detroit at -1.5 for 42.5c, a market lean toward a one-run-plus Tigers win rather than a blowout
- Total sits at Over/Under 8.5 runs (45.5c), a modest number reflecting Skubal against the Orioles .250-hitting lineup led by Pete Alonso (22 HR, 67 RBI)
What are the Orioles vs Tigers odds for July 29, 2026?
Detroit is the 61c moneyline favorite (61c on both Kalshi and Polymarket) and Baltimore is the underdog at 40c as of July 29, 2026. The 61c price implies roughly a 61% chance the Tigers win at Comerica Park.
Who is favored in Orioles vs Tigers?
The Detroit Tigers, at 61c, despite a 51-57 record against Baltimore 52-56. The market is pricing the pitching edge, with Tarik Skubal (2.70 ERA) starting for Detroit against Trevor Rogers (4.17 ERA).
What are the run line and total for Orioles vs Tigers on July 29, 2026?
Detroit is -1.5 on the run line at 42.5c and Baltimore is -1.5 at 28.5c. The game total sits at Over/Under 8.5 runs priced at 45.5c as of July 29, 2026.
Where can I trade the Orioles vs Tigers market?
The moneyline, run line, and total all trade on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and the two books agree to the cent on Detroit at 61c. Player props such as strikeouts and home runs are listed mainly on Kalshi with a few on Polymarket.
When does the Orioles vs Tigers market resolve?
It resolves when the game goes final at Comerica Park on July 29, 2026. The moneyline pays the winning team, the run line settles on the final margin, and the total settles on combined runs scored.
What should I watch before Orioles vs Tigers resolves?
Confirmation of Tarik Skubal and Trevor Rogers as the starters, since a late scratch would reset the 61c line quickly, plus any move on the Pete Alonso home run prop, which is split 21c Kalshi to 39c Polymarket heading into July 29, 2026.