Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Prediction Market Odds, September 16, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Orioles | +1.5 61%66% | O 8.5 54%55% | 45%45% | 45% Kalshi |
â–¶Mets | -1.5 39%34% | U 8.5 46%45% | 56%56% | 56% Kalshi |
Baltimore owns the better record and the better listed starter, and the market still makes New York the favorite. The Mets price at 56% on both Kalshi and Polymarket for the September 16 series finale at Citi Field, with the Orioles at 44.5% on the cross-platform average (44% Kalshi, 45% Polymarket) as of the evening of September 15. Home field and a bullpen-shaped New York pitching plan are carrying a price the standings do not support, since Baltimore is 73-78 and the Mets are 69-81.
Baltimore is 73-78 and New York is 69-81, and the board still asks you to lay a price on the team with six fewer wins. The Mets sit at 56% on both Kalshi and Polymarket for the finale of this three-game set at Citi Field, and the Orioles trade at 44% on Kalshi and 45% on Polymarket, a 44.5% average. The two books agree to the point on the favorite, which is the cleanest signal on the board: this is a priced home edge, not a disagreement to arbitrage. Baltimore won the opener 2-1 on September 14, and the middle game was still in progress when this page was written.
Orioles vs Mets Market Context
The full board carries roughly $1.1K in lifetime volume, and about $910 of that sits in the two moneyline legs. That concentration matters when you read the rest of the page: the moneyline is the only market here with real two-sided participation, and most of the 76 other lines have traded nothing. The run line reflects the same read as the moneyline. New York at -1.5 prices at 39% on both platforms, Baltimore at -1.5 at 32.5% (33% Kalshi, 32% Polymarket), so the market gives the Mets about a six-point edge on a multi-run win without believing either side is a blowout candidate.
Polymarket is the only venue quoting the after-five-innings three-way, where the Mets lead at 47%, Baltimore sits at 37%, and a tie prices at 13%. That is a one-book market with no Kalshi counterpart, so treat it as one venue's opinion rather than a consensus. The same caution applies to the headline total: Over 8.5 runs prices at 52% on Kalshi alone, with no Polymarket quote to check it against, and it is the third-most-traded leg on the board at about $142 of volume. Over 7.5 runs does carry both books at 58% Kalshi and 57% Polymarket.
Pitching and the Run Environment
Chris Bassitt is listed as Baltimore's probable starter as of September 15, carrying a 7-5 record and a 4.88 ERA. New York lists Robert Stock, a 1-3 pitcher with a 5.93 ERA whose listed position is reliever, which is the tell that the Mets are planning a staff game rather than a conventional start. That is the single most important input on this page and it explains why a 69-81 home team is still favored only modestly rather than heavily.
The offenses are close to a wash. Baltimore has scored 674 runs, 14th in the league, on a .235 average that ranks 27th, and Pete Alonso has carried the production with 35 home runs and 100 RBI. New York has scored 644 runs on a .238 average, with Juan Soto at 25 home runs and Bo Bichette leading the club with 73 RBI. Team ERAs are effectively identical at 4.18 for the Orioles and 4.16 for the Mets. The team totals price the gap the market actually believes in: the Mets over 3.5 runs sits at 60% and Baltimore over 3.5 runs at 54%, both on Kalshi only.
On line movement, this board carries a single captured snapshot per moneyline leg, taken during a roughly one-hour window on the evening of September 15. There is no series to read yet, so no move in either direction has been observed here.
When the Orioles vs Mets Market Resolves
The moneyline settles on the winner of the game at Citi Field on September 16, 2026, scheduled for around 7 PM ET on a national ESPN broadcast. Spread and total legs settle on the official final score, including extra innings.
Key Orioles vs Mets Catalysts
The New York pitching plan: a reliever listed as the probable starter points to a staff game, which raises early-inning variance and is the reason the first-five-innings markets price differently from the full game.
The Bassitt profile: Baltimore has the only conventional starter listed, and a 4.88 ERA sets a realistic floor rather than a shutdown expectation.
Alonso against his old park: 35 home runs and 100 RBI make him Baltimore's run source, and the Orioles over 3.5 runs leg at 54% is the cleanest way the board expresses that.
The one-book legs: the full-game Over 8.5, every team-total rung, and the after-five three-way each quote on a single platform, so none of them carry cross-platform confirmation.
Thin liquidity outside the moneyline: roughly 84% of board volume sits in the two win legs, so a single order can move a prop rung without changing anything about the game.
Related MLB Markets
Compare this price against the series opener on September 14 and the middle game on September 15, both of which traded the same two clubs at the same venue. Season-long context lives on the Orioles team hub and the Mets team hub, and the division futures still trading are the AL East market and the NL East market. Every game on the slate is on today's MLB board.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets game at Citi Field on September 16, 2026, first pitch scheduled for around 7 PM ET. Each team contract pays $1 per share if that team wins and $0 otherwise, with the official Major League Baseball final score as the source of truth, including any extra innings. Run-line and total contracts settle on that same final score, and first-five-innings legs settle on the score after the top and bottom of the fifth. If the game is postponed and replayed on a later date, Kalshi and Polymarket settle to the completed game under their published rules; if the game is suspended and called early, settlement follows the official shortened-game result once the league declares it final.
Key Factors
- New York lists Robert Stock (1-3, 5.93 ERA), a reliever by position, as its probable starter as of September 15, which points to a bullpen game and raises early-inning variance.
- Chris Bassitt (7-5, 4.88 ERA) is listed as Baltimore's probable starter as of September 15 and is the only conventional starter in the matchup.
- Pete Alonso leads Baltimore with 35 home runs and 100 RBI; the Orioles over 3.5 runs leg priced at 54% on Kalshi on the evening of September 15.
- Kalshi had the better Orioles price at 44% against 45% on Polymarket as of the evening of September 15, while both books agreed on the Mets at 56%.
- The full-game Over 8.5 runs leg, every team total, and the after-five-innings three-way each quote on a single platform, so none of them carry cross-platform confirmation.
- About 84% of the board's roughly $1.1K in lifetime volume sits in the two moneyline legs, leaving the prop rungs thin enough that one order can move a price.
What are the current Orioles vs Mets odds for September 16, 2026?
As of the evening of September 15, the New York Mets price at 56% on both Kalshi and Polymarket and the Baltimore Orioles at 44.5% on the cross-platform average, 44% on Kalshi and 45% on Polymarket. Prices move, so check the live board above for the current number.
Who is favored in Orioles vs Mets?
The Mets are the favorite at a 56% implied probability, roughly an 11-point edge over Baltimore at 44.5%, even though the Orioles hold the better record at 73-78 against New York's 69-81. The market is pricing home field at Citi Field rather than team quality.
Where does the Orioles vs Mets game trade?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the moneyline for this game, and Prediction Genius shows both quotes side by side. Kalshi additionally lists the full-game total, the team totals, and the first-five-innings rungs, while Polymarket is the only venue quoting the three-way after-five-innings market.
What is the total for Orioles vs Mets?
Kalshi prices Over 8.5 runs at 52% and Over 7.5 runs at 58%, with Polymarket at 57% on the 7.5 rung. The 8.5 total is quoted on Kalshi only, so it carries no second-venue confirmation. First five innings over 4.5 runs prices at 55% on both platforms.
When does the Orioles vs Mets market resolve?
It resolves when the game goes final at Citi Field on September 16, 2026, first pitch scheduled for around 7 PM ET on ESPN. The winning team's contract pays $1 per share, spreads and totals settle on the official final score including extra innings, and both platforms typically settle within hours of the last out.