Red Sox vs Dodgers Prediction Market Odds, August 2, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Sox | +1.5 56%76% | O 8.5 55%55% | 41%41% | 41% Kalshi |
â–¶Dodgers | -1.5 44%24% | U 8.5 45%45% | 60%60% | 60% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Boston Red Sox | +1.5 | O 8.5 | 41% Kalshi | |
â–¶Los Angeles Dodgers | -1.5 | U 8.5 | 60% Kalshi |
Los Angeles is the 60c home favorite over Boston at 41c, and both books agree to the cent (60c Kalshi, 60c Polymarket), unusually tight pricing for a marquee interleague finale. The tension is on the mound: Boston starts Jake Bennett (6-4, 2.74 ERA) against Emmet Sheehan (4-7, 4.95 ERA), so the market is paying for the Dodgers (69-41) lineup and home field rather than the starting matchup. Boston (58-51) took the series opener 9-4 at Dodger Stadium on July 31 and is 33-22 on the road. First pitch is 7:20 PM ET on August 2, 2026.
Los Angeles is the 60c favorite for the Sunday finale at Dodger Stadium and Boston sits at 41c, a 19c gap that both exchanges have priced to the cent. The Dodgers are 69-41 and lead the NL West; the Red Sox are 58-51 and sit third in the AL East. The board is interesting because the pitching matchup points the other way: Boston starts Jake Bennett (6-4, 2.74 ERA) against Emmet Sheehan (4-7, 4.95 ERA), making the Red Sox one of only three underdogs on the August 2 slate whose probable starter carries the better ERA.
Red Sox vs Dodgers Market Context
The moneyline is where the liquidity is. Roughly $25K of lifetime volume sits on the Dodgers side and about $11.6K on the Red Sox side, while most alternate rungs on the board show no traded volume at all. The 60c and 41c prices sum to 101c, the standard platform vig, so the devigged read on Los Angeles is closer to 59% than the headline 60c implies.
Cross-platform, there is nothing to arbitrage on the winner market. Kalshi has the Dodgers at 60c and Polymarket has them at 60c; the Red Sox are 41c on both, and the pair is flagged verified. That is tighter agreement than most marquee games produce. The only daylight between the books sits on the derivative rungs: Over 2.5 runs in the first five innings is 82c on Kalshi against 79c on Polymarket, and Over 4.5 in the first five is 58c against 56c. Anyone working the first-five markets has the better sell on Kalshi and the better buy on Polymarket.
The run line reads the way a tight-total game should. Los Angeles at -1.5 is 42.5c against 60c to win outright, so about 17.5c of the Dodgers' win equity is a one-run win. Boston at -1.5 is 31.5c. The full-game total sits between rungs, with Over 8.5 at 55.5c and Over 9.5 at 44.5c, bracketing the DraftKings number of 9 that ESPN carries for the same game. The Dodgers team total over 4.5 runs is 55c against Boston's 45c, a 10c offensive edge that is narrower than the 19c moneyline gap. The market is paying for the Los Angeles bullpen and home field more than for the lineup.
Line movement: the moneyline has not moved. The Dodgers held 60c and the Red Sox held 41c across every snapshot in the window, on both platforms. The movement went into the totals instead. Kalshi's full-game Over 8.5 ticked from 55c to 56c, the first-five Over 5.5 drifted from 48c down to 45c, and the run-in-the-first-inning market moved from 52c to 53c. A firmer full-game total paired with a softer first-five total is consistent with traders pricing early command from both starters and a late bullpen game.
Red Sox vs Dodgers Pitching Matchup: Bennett vs Sheehan
Bennett is the better arm on paper and the market is not paying for it. His 2.74 ERA is more than two full runs better than Sheehan's 4.95, and Sheehan carries a 4-7 record into the finale against Bennett's 6-4. A 41c price on the team with the sharper probable starter is the clearest value argument on this board.
The counterweight is the order Bennett has to work through. Shohei Ohtani leads Los Angeles with 24 home runs, Freddie Freeman is hitting .305, and Andy Pages has driven in 71 runs. Boston's offense concentrates in Willson Contreras, who leads the club in average (.288), home runs (23), and RBI (67). A deeper Dodgers lineup against a thinner Red Sox one is what the 19c moneyline gap is buying, and it is why the team-total rungs sit only 10c apart while the winner market sits 19c apart.
The venue split cuts against the favorite. Boston is 33-22 on the road and just 25-29 at home, so the road-dog framing understates them. Los Angeles is 33-21 at Dodger Stadium and, unusually for a first-place club, better on the road (36-20) than at home. Boston also owns the recent head-to-head: the Red Sox took the series opener 9-4 at Dodger Stadium on July 31, with the Saturday middle game following before this finale.
When the Red Sox vs Dodgers Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game, scheduled for 7:20 PM ET on August 2, 2026 at Dodger Stadium. The run line settles on the final margin and the total settles on combined runs scored, both using the official final score. Kalshi lists the game under ticker KXMLBGAME-26AUG021920BOSLAD and Polymarket carries the matching event, and both settle once the game is official. A rain delay that pushes first pitch does not void the market; a postponement to another date follows each platform's suspension and re-listing rules.
Key Red Sox vs Dodgers Catalysts
- Starter ERA gap: Bennett at 2.74 for the 41c underdog against Sheehan at 4.95 for the 60c favorite, a 2.21-run edge running the wrong way for the chalk.
- Boston road split: 33-22 away from Fenway Park against 25-29 at home, which argues the road-dog price is soft.
- Flat moneyline: the Dodgers held 60c and the Red Sox held 41c through every snapshot, so any late move is news-driven rather than a continuation.
- No cross-platform edge on the winner: 60c on Kalshi and 60c on Polymarket, with the widest book-to-book gap on the board only 3c on the first-five total.
- Run line premium: 60c to win outright against 42.5c to win by two or more prices a heavy share of the Dodgers' equity into a one-run result.
- Thin alt liquidity: the moneyline carries the volume while most team-total and alternate-spread rungs show zero traded contracts, so those quotes move on small size.
Related Red Sox vs Dodgers and MLB Markets
The finale feeds two separate season-long boards. Los Angeles at 69-41 anchors the NL West division market, while Boston at 58-51 is chasing in the AL East division market, and both clubs price on the World Series winner board. For the rest of the day's slate and the full cross-platform odds grid, see today's MLB games and the MLB market hub.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Dodger Stadium on August 2, 2026, with a scheduled first pitch of 7:20 PM ET. Each winning contract pays $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0. The run line settles on the final margin (Los Angeles -1.5 needs a two-run win or better) and the total settles on combined runs scored, both from the official final score once the game is complete. Kalshi lists the game under ticker KXMLBGAME-26AUG021920BOSLAD and Polymarket carries the matching event. A rain delay that pushes first pitch on the same date does not void the market; a postponement to a different date is handled under each platform suspension and re-listing rules, and a game called early settles on the official score at the point it is declared final.
Key Factors
- Starter ERA gap: Jake Bennett (2.74) for the 41c underdog against Emmet Sheehan (4.95) for the 60c favorite
- Boston road split of 33-22 away against 25-29 at home argues the road-dog price is soft
- Moneyline held flat at 60c Dodgers and 41c Red Sox across every intraday snapshot
- Zero cross-platform spread on the winner market (60c Kalshi, 60c Polymarket); widest book gap is 3c on the first-five total
- Run line premium: 60c to win outright against 42.5c to win by two or more runs
- Liquidity concentrates in the moneyline (about $25K lifetime on the Dodgers side) while most alt rungs show zero volume
What are the current Red Sox vs Dodgers odds?
As of August 2, 2026, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the 60c favorite and the Boston Red Sox are 41c. Kalshi and Polymarket both price the Dodgers at 60c and the Red Sox at 41c, so there is no cross-platform gap on the winner market.
Who is favored in Red Sox vs Dodgers and by what implied probability?
Los Angeles is favored at 60c, an implied probability of about 60%, against Boston at 41c or roughly 41%. The two sides sum to 101c because of platform vig, so the devigged Dodgers number is closer to 59%.
Where can I trade the Red Sox vs Dodgers market?
The game trades on both Kalshi, under ticker KXMLBGAME-26AUG021920BOSLAD, and Polymarket, where it is listed as the August 2, 2026 BOS at LAD event. The pair is a verified cross-platform match, so prices on both books render on the same board.
When does the Red Sox vs Dodgers market resolve?
It resolves when the game goes final at Dodger Stadium on August 2, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 7:20 PM ET. Settlement follows the official final score on both platforms.
What are the Red Sox vs Dodgers run line and total?
The Dodgers at -1.5 are 42.5c and the Red Sox at -1.5 are 31.5c as of August 2, 2026. Over 8.5 runs is 55.5c and Over 9.5 is 44.5c, bracketing the sportsbook total of 9 that ESPN lists for the game.
What should I watch before Red Sox vs Dodgers resolves?
Watch the confirmed lineup cards and any late scratch to Jake Bennett, whose 2.74 ERA is the main reason the 41c Boston price looks soft against Emmet Sheehan at 4.95. The moneyline held at 60c and 41c through the overnight snapshots, so a move on August 2, 2026 signals real news.