Tigers vs Guardians Prediction Market Odds, September 6, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tigers | — | — | 0% | — |
Guardians | — | — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers | — | — | 0% | — |
Cleveland Guardians | — | — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Cleveland (72-71) is the favorite over Detroit (65-77) in the Sunday finale at Progressive Field, and Kalshi and Polymarket are quoting the Guardians identically, so there is no cross-platform gap to work. Gavin Williams brings 28 starts, a 3.81 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP against Jackson Jobe, who has 23.1 innings across five starts. Cleveland leads the series 2-1 and sits 2.5 games back in the AL Central. First pitch is 1:40 PM ET on September 6, 2026.
The Guardians (72-71) close a four-game set against the Tigers (65-77) at Progressive Field on Sunday, September 6, 2026, first pitch 1:40 PM ET. Cleveland leads the series 2-1 after taking Friday's doubleheader 7-6 and 4-3 and then losing 6-0 on Saturday. The pitching gap is the whole reason the board is priced where it is: Gavin Williams has made 28 starts this season with a 3.81 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 217 strikeouts in 163.0 innings, while Jackson Jobe has thrown 23.1 innings across five starts with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. The board carries roughly $563 of lifetime volume across two platforms.
Tigers vs Guardians Market Context
Cleveland is the 62c favorite as of the morning of September 6, 2026, and Kalshi and Polymarket are quoting it identically at 62c apiece. Detroit sits at 39c on both books. The 101c sum across the pair is the exchange vig, not a mispricing, and there is no cross-platform edge to take here: both venues agree on this game to the cent, which is unusual on a low-volume regular-season board and a sign the two order books are reading the same starting-pitcher input.
The line has moved, and in one direction. Polymarket had Cleveland at 59c late Saturday night and Kalshi opened the same side at 60c overnight; by Sunday morning both had walked up to 62c, a three-cent drift on Polymarket and two on Kalshi across a roughly ten-hour capture window. Nothing on the board suggests a news event drove it. That is the market pricing the Williams start into a matchup where Detroit is countering with a five-start sample.
The records complicate the favorite. Cleveland is 35-39 at Progressive Field and 37-32 away from it, so the home split is the weaker half of its season and the 62c price is not being earned by venue. Detroit is 34-35 at home and 31-42 on the road, and the road number is the real driver of a 39c underdog quote on a team that just posted a shutout win in this same building on Saturday. Over the last ten games Cleveland is 5-5 and Detroit is 3-7, and Detroit's three wins in that stretch came by 2-1, 11-6 and 6-0, a scoring profile with no middle.
The standings stake is one-sided. Cleveland is 2.5 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central at 72-71 and is tied with Toronto in the broader American League picture, so every game in September is a live playoff-position game for the home side. Detroit at 65-77 is nine games back and playing out the schedule. Motivation asymmetry does not usually show up as a cent on a moneyline, but it is the context a reader should hold when the favorite is only 62c.
Beyond the moneyline, this board carries one alt market: a first-inning run contract priced at 43.5c on average, with Kalshi at 44c and Polymarket at 43c. That market has not traded, so the quote is a book price rather than a consensus of executed volume. There is no run line and no game total on this board, which limits the ways to express a view here to the two moneyline sides and the first-inning question. Compare the pricing against the rest of the slate on the MLB board.
When the Tigers vs Guardians Market Resolves
The Tigers vs Guardians moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game outright on September 6, 2026, at Progressive Field. Extra innings count and there is no draw outcome. Kalshi settles the game under ticker KXMLBGAME-26SEP061340DETCLE once the result is final, and Polymarket settles the paired event on the same official outcome. The first-inning contract resolves YES if either team scores in the top or bottom of the first. A postponement moves settlement to the completed makeup date under each platform's own rules rather than voiding immediately.
Key Tigers vs Guardians Catalysts
- Williams workload: 28 starts and 163.0 innings is a full-season load, and a 1.09 WHIP with 217 strikeouts is the single most durable input in this price.
- Jobe sample size: five starts and 23.1 innings give the market almost nothing to price, and a 1.46 WHIP in that sample is why Detroit sits at 39c.
- Cleveland's home split: 35-39 at Progressive Field against 37-32 on the road means the favorite is not collecting a venue premium here.
- Detroit road form: 31-42 away from Comerica Park is the number carrying the underdog quote more than anything the offense did on Saturday.
- Series momentum is priced thin: Detroit's 6-0 shutout win on Saturday did not move the finale line down, which tells you the books weighted the pitching matchup over the previous game.
- AL Central position: Cleveland is 2.5 games back with a September schedule that makes this a leverage game for the home side and a neutral one for the visitor.
Related Tigers vs Guardians Markets
Follow the season-long consequences of this series on the AL Central division market, where Cleveland's 2.5-game deficit behind the White Sox is the live question, and on the American League pennant board for the wider October picture. Both team pages carry every open contract on each club: the Cleveland Guardians hub and the Detroit Tigers hub. For the rest of the day's cross-platform baseball pricing, the MLB prediction market hub lists every game board on Kalshi and Polymarket side by side.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the game outright at Progressive Field on September 6, 2026, with a scheduled first pitch of 1:40 PM ET. Extra innings count toward the final result and there is no draw outcome on the moneyline. Kalshi settles under ticker KXMLBGAME-26SEP061340DETCLE and Polymarket settles the paired event on the same official Major League Baseball result, each paying $1 per winning share while the losing side settles at zero. The companion first-inning contract resolves YES if either club scores a run in the first inning. If the game is postponed or suspended, settlement follows the completed makeup game under each platform rules rather than voiding on the original date.
Key Factors
- Gavin Williams season load: 28 starts, 163.0 innings, 3.81 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 217 strikeouts
- Jackson Jobe five-start sample: 23.1 innings, 4.63 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 10 walks
- Cleveland is 35-39 at Progressive Field but 37-32 on the road, so the favorite gets no venue premium
- Detroit is 31-42 away from home, the number carrying the underdog price
- Kalshi and Polymarket agree to the cent on the moneyline, so there is no cross-platform spread on this board
- Cleveland sits 2.5 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central, making this a leverage game for the home side only
What are the current Tigers vs Guardians odds?
As of the morning of September 6, 2026, Cleveland is the 62c favorite with Kalshi and Polymarket both at 62c, and Detroit trades at 39c on both platforms. The Guardians drifted up from 59c on Polymarket late Saturday night to 62c by Sunday morning.
Who is favored in Tigers vs Guardians and by how much?
Cleveland is favored at a 62c consensus, an implied win probability of roughly 62%. The Guardians are 72-71 on the season against a Detroit club at 65-77, and Gavin Williams starting against a five-start Jackson Jobe sample is the main reason for the gap.
Where can I trade the Tigers vs Guardians market?
The game trades on both Kalshi, under ticker KXMLBGAME-26SEP061340DETCLE, and Polymarket. The board carries roughly $563 of lifetime volume across the two venues, with the Kalshi Cleveland leg holding the largest share.
When does the Tigers vs Guardians market resolve?
It resolves once the September 6, 2026 game goes final at Progressive Field, with first pitch scheduled for 1:40 PM ET. Both platforms settle on the official Major League Baseball result, and extra innings count.
What is the spread or total on this Tigers vs Guardians board?
This board carries no run line and no game total. The only alt market alongside the moneyline is a first-inning run contract quoted at 44c on Kalshi and 43c on Polymarket, which has not traded any volume yet.
What should I watch before Tigers vs Guardians resolves?
Watch whether the Cleveland price holds above 60c into first pitch after its overnight drift, and whether a late scratch changes the Jobe start. Cleveland is 2.5 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central, so any lineup rest decision on a Sunday matinee is meaningful.