Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Final Score and Odds Recap, August 4, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Angels | +1.5 — | O 7.5 1%10% | 1% | 1% Kalshi |
Orioles | -1.5 — | U 7.5 — | 99% | 99% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Angels | +1.5 — | O 7.5 | 1% Kalshi | |
Baltimore Orioles | -1.5 — | U 7.5 — | 99% Kalshi |
Baltimore beat Los Angeles 3-1 on August 4, 2026 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and the 57c home favorite held. The Orioles were priced at 57c on Kalshi and 56c on Polymarket against the Angels at 45c before first pitch, an implied read near 56 percent after vig. The Angels out-hit the Orioles 11 to 4 and scored once, Tyler O'Neill's eighth-inning pinch-hit home run decided it, and the four combined runs put every total from 4.5 up on the No side.
Baltimore beat Los Angeles 3-1 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, and the prediction market got the outcome right without getting the shape of the game right. The Orioles were the 57c home favorite before first pitch (57c on Kalshi, 56c on Polymarket) against the Angels at 45c, an implied read of roughly 56 percent once the 102c two-sided quote was stripped of its vig. That is a modest favorite, the kind of price that wins a little more often than a coin flip, and Baltimore delivered exactly that: a two-run margin decided by one swing in the eighth inning. The board carried about $1.98M in cumulative volume across Kalshi and Polymarket.
How the Angels vs Orioles Game Was Decided
Los Angeles out-hit Baltimore 11 to 4 and lost. That was the story of the night. Angels hitters put 11 balls in play for hits, drew two walks, and struck out 11 times, converting all of it into a single run. Baltimore went 4-for-28 as a team, a .143 clip, and scored three.
The Orioles opened the scoring in the third. Christian Franklin walked, Colton Cowser singled to center, Carlos Narvaez was hit by a pitch, and Pete Alonso lined a two-run single to center to score Cowser and Franklin. That was the entire Baltimore offense until the eighth. Grayson Rodriguez, the Angels starter carrying a 7.24 ERA and a 3-4 record into the outing, was otherwise excellent: 7.0 innings, 3 hits, 2 earned runs, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts on 98 pitches. He retired Baltimore in order in the fourth, fifth and sixth and stranded a Coby Mayo triple in the seventh when Franklin grounded into a fielder's choice that cut Mayo down at the plate.
Cade Povich matched him for Baltimore with a cleaner result on the scoreboard and a messier one in the box score: 6.0 innings, 7 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts on 88 pitches. He worked around a Nolan Schanuel double in the first, a Wade Meckler and Zach Neto back-to-back single sequence in the third, and a Mike Trout single in the sixth. Trout finished 1-for-4 with three strikeouts. Two Angels baserunners, Denzer Guzman in the fourth and Meckler in the fifth, were picked off first base, which erased two of the innings Los Angeles had built.
The Angels finally broke through in the eighth against Andrew Kittredge. Schanuel doubled to right for his second double of the night, and Vaughn Grissom doubled to center to score him for a 2-1 game. In the bottom half, Baltimore answered immediately: Tyler O'Neill pinch hit for Dylan Beavers and homered to left center, 373 feet, off Mitch Farris. Yennier Cano handled the ninth, allowing a leadoff double to Josh Lowe before striking out Meckler and Neto to end it. Attendance was 18,585.
What the Angels vs Orioles Market Priced Before First Pitch
A 57c favorite is a low-conviction favorite, and this game validated the price rather than embarrassing it. Baltimore entered the night at 54-58 and left at 55-58, fourth in the American League East and 12 games behind Tampa Bay (67-46). Los Angeles fell to 43-70, the worst record among the teams playing that night. On raw standings alone, a 45c price on the Angels was generous to the visitor, which points at the pitching matchup doing the work: Povich carried a 3.91 ERA and a 2-1 record into the start, Rodriguez carried a 7.24 ERA and a 3-4 record, and the market still only made Baltimore a 12-cent favorite.
The market's read on scoring was less confident and turned out to be too high. The four combined runs cleared only the lowest total rungs on the board. Every total line at 4.5 runs and above settled No, and the 7.5 and 8.5 rungs that anchor a typical MLB board settled at 0c to 1c. The run line was the one derivative that landed cleanly for favorite backers: Baltimore at -1.5 settled at 99c to 100c because the two-run margin covered the number exactly.
How the Angels vs Orioles Market Settled
The moneyline settled to Baltimore. The Orioles contract closed at 100c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and the Angels contract closed at 0c, which is the settled state and not a live quote. The Baltimore run line at -1.5 settled Yes. The Baltimore team total over 1.5 runs settled Yes at 100c on the strength of the three runs. The first-inning run market settled No, since neither side scored until the third.
The derivative board settled cleanly on the props as well. Tyler O'Neill's home run over 0.5 settled at 100c on Polymarket after the pinch-hit shot, while the home run props on Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Mike Trout and the rest of both lineups all settled at 0c to 1c. Alonso's hits-plus-runs-plus-RBIs ladder settled Yes through the 3+ rung on his 1-for-4, two-RBI night. Grissom's 2+ hits prop settled No on his 1-for-4.
Key Angels vs Orioles Takeaways
Favorite held: Baltimore at 57c was the correct side and won by two, a result consistent with a modest favorite rather than a mispriced one.
Hit total lied: Los Angeles out-hit Baltimore 11 to 4 and scored once, a sequencing gap that no pre-game price could have anticipated.
Under landed hard: four combined runs settled every total from 4.5 upward to No, well below where the mid-board totals were priced.
Run line covered exactly: the 3-1 final cleared Baltimore -1.5 by half a run, which is the tightest possible cover on that number.
Pinch hit decided it: Tyler O'Neill's 373-foot home run in the eighth was the only Baltimore hit after the third inning that produced a run.
Standings context: Baltimore moved to 55-58 and stayed 12 games back in the American League East, while Los Angeles dropped to 43-70.
Related Angels vs Orioles Markets
The series continued the next two days at Camden Yards, with the August 5 game and the August 6 finale both trading across Kalshi and Polymarket. Team-level markets for both clubs live on the Baltimore Orioles hub and the Los Angeles Angels hub, and the full slate of daily game boards, season win totals and division markets is indexed on the MLB hub.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolved to the team that won the game on August 4, 2026 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Baltimore won 3-1, so the Orioles contract settled at $1 per share and the Los Angeles Angels contract settled at $0. The run line settled on the final margin, with Baltimore -1.5 resolving Yes on the two-run win and the Angels +1.5 side resolving No. Totals settled on combined runs scored, and the four total runs resolved Yes only on the 3.5 line and below and No at 4.5 and above. Player props settled on the official box score, with Tyler O'Neill's home run over 0.5 resolving Yes. Kalshi and Polymarket both settled the board after the game went final in nine innings on the scheduled date, and no suspension, rain delay or postponement rule was triggered.
Key Factors
- Baltimore won 3-1, so the 57c pre-game favorite (57c Kalshi, 56c Polymarket) held
- Los Angeles out-hit Baltimore 11 to 4 and converted it into a single run
- Grayson Rodriguez threw 7.0 innings of 3-hit, 2-earned-run ball with 6 strikeouts for the Angels
- Cade Povich allowed 7 hits and 0 runs over 6.0 innings with 7 strikeouts for the Orioles
- Tyler O'Neill's 373-foot pinch-hit home run in the eighth off Mitch Farris created the final margin
- Four combined runs settled Baltimore -1.5 Yes and every total at 4.5 and above No
Who won the Angels vs Orioles game on August 4, 2026?
The Baltimore Orioles won 3-1 over the Los Angeles Angels at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The game went the full nine innings and Baltimore never trailed.
What was the final score of Angels vs Orioles?
Baltimore 3, Los Angeles 1. The Orioles scored two in the third on a Pete Alonso single and one in the eighth on a Tyler O'Neill home run, and the Angels scored once in the eighth on a Vaughn Grissom double.
Was the Angels vs Orioles market right about the favorite?
Yes. Baltimore was the 57c home favorite before first pitch, 57c on Kalshi and 56c on Polymarket, against the Angels at 45c, and the Orioles won by two runs. The moneyline settled at 100c for Baltimore and 0c for Los Angeles.
Did the Angels vs Orioles run line and total land?
Baltimore -1.5 covered on the 3-1 final and settled at 99c to 100c. The four combined runs cleared only the 3.5 total, and every line at 4.5 runs and above settled No.
Where did the Angels vs Orioles game trade?
The board traded on both Kalshi and Polymarket with roughly $1.98M in cumulative volume across the moneyline, run line, totals and player props, which is why the cross-platform pre-game spread of one cent was so tight.
What should traders watch in the rest of the Angels vs Orioles series?
Baltimore moved to 55-58 and Los Angeles fell to 43-70, and the two clubs met again on August 5 and August 6 at Camden Yards. The gap between Angels contact volume and Angels run production is the thing to price in those two boards.