Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Prediction Market Odds, July 24, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Dodgers | -1.5 46%46% | O 8.5 55%56% | 59%59% | 59% Kalshi |
â–¶Mets | +1.5 54%54% | U 8.5 45%44% | 42%42% | 42% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Los Angeles Dodgers | -1.5 | O 8.5 | 59% Kalshi | |
â–¶New York Mets | +1.5 | U 8.5 | 42% Kalshi |
Los Angeles enters Citi Field at 65-38 and holds the widest record gap on any board on Friday, yet the Dodgers are only the 59c moneyline favorite over a 43-60 Mets club (42c). The compression traces to the mound, where Roki Sasaki (4.98 ERA) and Sean Manaea (4.74 ERA) grade close to even, so the market prices a 17c edge rather than the 22-game standings gap. Kalshi and Polymarket agree to the cent on the moneyline, and the line has held at 59c through the session. The live board above carries the current run line, total and player props; the market resolves when the game goes final on July 24, 2026.
Los Angeles arrives at Citi Field carrying the widest record gap on any Friday board, 65-38 against a 43-60 Mets club, yet the Dodgers are priced as only the 59c moneyline favorite. The market is not fading the standings by accident. Roki Sasaki (3-5, 4.98 ERA) and Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.74 ERA) grade out close to even on the mound, so a 22-game separation in the win column resolves to a 17c edge on the board rather than the runaway a first glance at the records would suggest.
Dodgers vs Mets Market Context
The Dodgers are 65-38 overall and 34-19 on the road, the profile of a first-place club that travels well. The Mets sit at 43-60 and just 21-28 at home, and Citi Field has not been the fortress a contender needs. On paper that gap should push the favorite well past 60c, but MLB single games are the highest-variance event on the board, and the market compresses the edge to a 17c line: Dodgers 59c, Mets 42c. Both books read the game the same way. Kalshi and Polymarket each price the Dodgers at 59c and the Mets at 42c, a rare cent-for-cent agreement that signals an efficient two-sided market with no cross-platform gap to exploit on the moneyline. The line opened at 59c and has held there through the session, so there is no early steam to chase in either direction.
Sasaki vs Manaea and the Dodgers vs Mets Run Line
The pitching matchup is the reason this is a 59c game and not a 65c one. Sasaki takes a 4.98 ERA to the mound for Los Angeles and Manaea answers with a 4.74 ERA for New York, a near-wash that hands the Mets more implied life than their record earns them. The run line reflects it: Dodgers -1.5 trades at 47c, meaning the market gives the favorite barely better than a coin flip to win by two or more. That is a tell that the expected script is a tight game, not a Dodgers blowout, which is why the straight moneyline at 59c is the cleaner expression of the Los Angeles edge than laying the run line. The total sits in the 8.5 to 9 run band, with the over 8.5 at 55c and the over 9.5 at 44c, consistent with two mid-4.00s starters and lineups fronted by Shohei Ohtani (22 HR) for the Dodgers and Juan Soto (.283, 21 HR, 52 RBI) for the Mets. The sharpest cross-platform divergence is not on the game lines at all but on the star home-run props: Kalshi prices Ohtani to go deep at 22c and Soto at 21c, while Polymarket has both near 12c. A trader backing a marquee bat to homer gets the cheaper ticket on Polymarket; one fading the props gets the richer price on Kalshi.
When the Dodgers vs Mets Market Resolves
The market resolves to the team that wins the game at Citi Field on July 24, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 PM ET. The moneyline pays out on the winning side, the run line (Dodgers -1.5, Mets +1.5) settles on the two-run margin, and the total settles on the final combined score once the game is official. A suspension or postponement past the scheduled date defers settlement until the game is completed and declared final on Kalshi and Polymarket, per each platform rain and cancellation rules. Player props settle on the official box score.
Key Dodgers vs Mets Factors
- Roki Sasaki (3-5, 4.98 ERA) vs Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.74 ERA): the near-even mound matchup is why the 22-game record gap prices as only a 17c moneyline edge.
- Road-home split: the Dodgers are 34-19 away, the Mets just 21-28 at Citi Field, yet the favorite is only 59c.
- Cross-platform prop value: Kalshi prices Shohei Ohtani (22c) and Juan Soto (21c) to homer at nearly double Polymarket (12c each).
- The total sits near 8.5 to 9 runs, with the over 8.5 at 55c and the over 9.5 at 44c.
- Run line read: Dodgers -1.5 at 47c says the market expects a one-run-or-tighter game more often than a Dodgers rout.
- Juan Soto (.283, 21 HR, 52 RBI) is the Mets lead bat and the swing factor against a strikeout-oriented Sasaki.
Related MLB Markets
Track the full odds board and every alt line on the Los Angeles Dodgers hub and the New York Mets hub, or compare this game against the rest of the slate on the MLB league page. For the wider board across every sport, the sports hub carries the live cross-platform prices.
Resolution Criteria
The market resolves to the team that wins the game at Citi Field on July 24, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 PM ET. The moneyline pays $1 per share on the winning side; the run line (Dodgers -1.5, Mets +1.5) settles on the two-run margin and the total (set in the 8.5 to 9 run band) settles on the final combined score once the game is official. A suspension or postponement past the scheduled date defers settlement until the game is completed and declared final on Kalshi and Polymarket, per each platform rain and cancellation rules. Player props settle on the official box score.
Key Factors
- Roki Sasaki (3-5, 4.98 ERA) vs Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.74 ERA): the near-even mound matchup is why the 22-game record gap prices as only a 17c moneyline edge
- Road-home split: the Dodgers are 34-19 away, the Mets just 21-28 at Citi Field, yet the favorite is only 59c
- Cross-platform prop value: Kalshi prices Shohei Ohtani (22c) and Juan Soto (21c) to homer at nearly double Polymarket (12c each)
- The total sits near 8.5 to 9 runs, with the over 8.5 at 55c and the over 9.5 at 44c
- Run line read: Dodgers -1.5 at 47c says the market expects a one-run-or-tighter game more often than a Dodgers rout
- Juan Soto (.283, 21 HR, 52 RBI) is the Mets lead bat and the swing factor against a strikeout-oriented Sasaki
What are the current Dodgers vs Mets odds?
As of July 24, 2026, the Dodgers are the 59c moneyline favorite, priced at 59c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with the Mets at 42c. That implies a Los Angeles win probability near 59%.
Who is favored in Dodgers vs Mets on July 24, 2026?
The Dodgers are favored at 59c. The record gap is 65-38 to 43-60, but the Sasaki vs Manaea pitching matchup compresses the edge to 17c rather than a lopsided line.
Where can I trade the Dodgers vs Mets market?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the moneyline, run line, total and player props. The two books agree to the cent on the moneyline at 59c as of July 24, 2026.
What is the run line and total for Dodgers vs Mets?
The run line is Dodgers -1.5 (47c) or Mets +1.5. The total sits in the 8.5 to 9 run band, with the over 8.5 priced at 55c on July 24, 2026.
What should I watch before Dodgers vs Mets resolves?
Confirmed lineups and any late scratch to Roki Sasaki or Sean Manaea, plus whether the star home-run props stay split (Ohtani and Soto near 22c on Kalshi versus 12c on Polymarket) into the 7:10 PM ET first pitch.