Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Prediction Market Odds, July 26, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Dodgers | -1.5 48%47% | O 9.5 43%43% | 36%36% | 36% Kalshi |
â–¶Mets | +1.5 52%53% | U 9.5 57%57% | 18%18% | 18% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Los Angeles Dodgers | -1.5 | O 9.5 | 36% Kalshi | |
â–¶New York Mets | +1.5 | U 9.5 | 18% Kalshi |
Los Angeles is the 60c road favorite (60c Kalshi, 60c Polymarket) over New York for Sunday's series finale at Citi Field, and the number has not moved. The Dodgers arrive 67-38 (36-19 on the road) against a Mets club sitting 43-62, a 24-game gap the market weighs more heavily than the near-even pitching matchup. Both books price Los Angeles to the cent at 60%, slightly under the DraftKings -172 line (about 63% implied), and the game trades across roughly $390K in combined volume ahead of the 1:40 PM ET first pitch on July 26, 2026.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the 60c road favorite (60c Kalshi, 60c Polymarket) for Sunday's series finale at Citi Field, and the Dodgers vs Mets market has held that number flat overnight. Los Angeles brings a 67-38 record (36-19 on the road) into a matchup with a New York club sitting 43-62 (21-30 at home). The combined board carries roughly $390K in volume across two platforms, with first pitch set for 1:40 PM ET on July 26, 2026.
Dodgers vs Mets Market Context
The moneyline reads Dodgers 60c against Mets 41c, a 60% implied number on Los Angeles that Kalshi and Polymarket price to the cent. That agreement removes any cross-platform edge on the winner. It also sits slightly under the sportsbook: DraftKings has the Dodgers at -172, about 63% implied, so the prediction market is a touch cheaper on Los Angeles than the book.
The pitching matchup is where the 60c number gets interesting. Los Angeles sends Emmet Sheehan (5.13 ERA, 4-7) against New York's Freddy Peralta (5.01 ERA, 5-9), a near-even pairing on paper. The Dodgers edge is carried by the lineup and the 24-game gap in the standings, not the arm on the mound. Both starters running ERAs above 5.00 is why the total sits at 9.5, though the market leans modestly under: Over 9.5 trades at 46.5c, and the Dodgers run line (-1.5) sits at 48c, close to a coin flip on the margin.
Line movement has been the quiet story. The Dodgers moneyline opened at 60c on both books and never left, holding 60c across the overnight snapshot window with no drift toward first pitch. When a 24-game record gap produces zero line movement, the market is signaling conviction in the price, not indecision.
When the Dodgers vs Mets Market Resolves
The market resolves on the outcome of the game played July 26, 2026 at Citi Field, first pitch scheduled for 1:40 PM ET. The moneyline pays $1 per share to the team that wins. The run line settles on whether Los Angeles wins by 2 or more, and the total settles on the combined final run count against the 9.5 line. Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the game is official. A postponement moves settlement to the completion date, and a canceled game voids per each platform's rules.
Key Dodgers vs Mets Catalysts
- Starting pitching is near-even: Emmet Sheehan (5.13 ERA, 4-7) against Freddy Peralta (5.01 ERA, 5-9) is close to a wash, so the Dodgers 60c edge rests on the lineup, not the matchup.
- The standings gap: Los Angeles at 67-38 (36-19 road) versus New York at 43-62 (21-30 home) is a 24-game separation.
- The flat line: the Dodgers moneyline held 60c on Kalshi and Polymarket through the overnight window with no drift.
- The total: set at 9.5 with Over at 46.5c, so two starters carrying 5.00-plus ERAs have not pushed the market over.
- Cross-platform lockstep: Kalshi and Polymarket agree to the cent (60c Dodgers, 41c Mets), leaving no arbitrage on the winner.
- Market versus book: 60% implied here sits under the DraftKings -172 line (about 63% implied), a small tilt toward New York if you trust the book.
Related MLB Markets
The Dodgers carry this price on the strength of their season-long form, tracked on the Los Angeles Dodgers hub, while the New York Mets hub shows a club playing out a 43-62 season. For the rest of Sunday's slate and standings context, the MLB league hub tracks every game and futures market, and the broader sports markets section covers cross-platform odds across every league.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the game played July 26, 2026 at Citi Field, with first pitch scheduled for 1:40 PM ET. The moneyline pays $1 per share to the winning team and $0 to the loser. The run line (Dodgers -1.5) settles on whether Los Angeles wins by 2 or more runs, and the total settles on the combined final run count against the 9.5 line. Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the game is official. If the game is postponed, settlement moves to the completion date; if the game is canceled or voided, contracts resolve per each platform-specific rules.
Key Factors
- Starting pitching near-even: Emmet Sheehan (5.13 ERA, 4-7) vs Freddy Peralta (5.01 ERA, 5-9), so the Dodgers 60c edge rests on the lineup
- Standings gap: Dodgers 67-38 (36-19 road) against Mets 43-62 (21-30 home), a 24-game separation
- Moneyline held flat at 60c on both Kalshi and Polymarket through the overnight window with no drift
- Total set at 9.5 with Over at 46.5c despite two 5.00-plus ERA starters, so the market leans modestly under
- Cross-platform lockstep: Kalshi and Polymarket agree to the cent (60c Dodgers, 41c Mets), no arbitrage on the winner
- Prediction market lighter than the book: 60% implied here versus DraftKings -172 (about 63% implied)
What are the current Dodgers vs Mets odds?
As of July 26, 2026, Los Angeles is the 60c favorite (60% implied) on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with New York at 41c. The line has held flat at 60c through the overnight window.
When does the Dodgers vs Mets market resolve?
It resolves once the game is official on July 26, 2026 at Citi Field, with first pitch scheduled for 1:40 PM ET. A postponement moves settlement to the completion date.
Where can I trade the Dodgers vs Mets market?
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with roughly $390K in combined volume across the moneyline, run line, and total as of July 26, 2026.
Who is favored in Dodgers vs Mets and by how much?
The Dodgers are favored at 60c, a 60% implied probability, against the Mets at 41c. That sits slightly under the DraftKings -172 line, which implies about 63%.
What are the Dodgers vs Mets spread and total?
The total is set at 9.5 runs, with Over trading at 46.5c, so the market leans modestly under. The Dodgers run line (-1.5) sits at 48c, close to a coin flip on the margin.
What should I watch before Dodgers vs Mets resolves?
Watch the probable-pitcher confirmations for Emmet Sheehan and Freddy Peralta and whether the 60c Dodgers line moves before the 1:40 PM ET first pitch on July 26, 2026.