Mets vs White Sox Prediction Market Odds, August 22, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mets | +1.5 — | O 0.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Sox | -1.5 — | U 0.5 — | 0%0% | — |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Mets | +1.5 — | O 0.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Chicago White Sox | -1.5 — | U 0.5 — | 0%0% | — |
The White Sox are the marginal home favorite at 53c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, with the Mets at 49c and 50c, which is as close to a coin flip as a prediction market gets. Chicago is 67-61 and leads the AL Central, New York is 58-71 and last in the NL East, and the White Sox took the opener 6-4. The starter matchup runs the other way: Christian Scott (3.51 ERA) against Luis Castillo (4.99 ERA), first pitch 7:10 PM ET at Rate Field.
The White Sox are 67-61 and lead the AL Central. The Mets are 58-71 and sit last in the NL East. The prediction markets have that inversion priced close to a coin flip: Chicago is 53c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, New York 49c on Kalshi and 50c on Polymarket. First pitch is 7:10 PM ET at Rate Field, and Chicago took the series opener 6-4 on Friday night. The board carries roughly $78.3K in lifetime volume across the two platforms.
Mets vs White Sox Market Context
Chicago is 38-25 at home and 29-36 on the road, so this three-game set lands on the half of the schedule the White Sox have actually won. New York is 28-36 away from Citi Field, and the opener loss dropped the Mets to 58-71. Recent form does not separate them: both clubs are 6-4 over their last ten, with the Mets taking series from Washington and San Diego before arriving in Chicago and the White Sox going 1-3 across the Cubs series and a 2-0 loss to Atlanta after sweeping three from Detroit.
The starting pitching cuts against the price. New York hands the ball to Christian Scott (4-3, 3.51 ERA), Chicago to Luis Castillo (4-9, 4.99 ERA). That is a 1.48-run gap in ERA in the visitors' favor, and the strikeout props agree with the scouting even where the moneyline does not: Scott's 6-plus strikeout contract trades at 57c and his 5-plus at 75c, against 39c and 55c for the same Castillo rungs. The market is paying for Chicago's home split and the back half of the game rather than the starter matchup, which is the single most contestable read on this board.
The run environment is priced tight. Over 8.5 total runs sits at 48c, Over 7.5 at 56c, and Over 9.5 at 38c on Kalshi and 37c on Polymarket, which puts the implied total just under nine. The run lines say the same thing from the other direction: White Sox -1.5 is 34c on both books and Mets -1.5 is 36c on Kalshi and 37c on Polymarket, so neither side is priced to win comfortably. A run in the first inning trades at 49c on Kalshi and 48c on Polymarket. Francisco Lindor is the most heavily quoted bat, at 67c for one or more hits and 21c for a home run.
Line movement is small but the two books have separated. Both books had Chicago at 52c on Friday evening. Kalshi drifted up to 53c while Polymarket eased to 51c shortly before 6:00 AM ET, leaving a 2c cross-platform split on the same side. The Mets rows on Kalshi held 49c across all 71 captures in that window, so the movement is entirely on the Chicago leg. The White Sox run line moved further than the moneyline did, from 37c down to 34c on Kalshi over the same stretch. That is the full snapshot history the board carries for this game, and it reaches back only to Friday evening, so scope any read to that window. As of this writing the better price on Chicago is Polymarket at 51c and the better price on New York is Kalshi at 49c, a 2c difference on each side rather than a mispriced game.
Volume is concentrated on the Polymarket moneyline, which has taken $31.1K in lifetime trade against $7.7K on the Kalshi White Sox contract and $6.3K on the Kalshi Mets contract. The AL Central market is the reason the home side has the thicker book: Chicago is playing for a division it currently leads, while New York is playing out a season.
When the Mets vs White Sox Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Rate Field on August 22, 2026, scheduled for 7:10 PM ET. Run line contracts settle on the final margin, the full-game and first-five-innings totals settle on runs actually scored, and player props settle on the official box score. Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle from the final result once the game is called official, normally within a few hours of the last out. A postponement moves settlement to the makeup date under each platform's rules, and a game shortened by weather settles on the official final score if it has gone the required innings.
Key Mets vs White Sox Catalysts
- Starter gap: Christian Scott (3.51 ERA) is the better arm on paper against Luis Castillo (4.99 ERA), yet New York is the 49c to 50c side.
- Home split: Chicago is 38-25 at Rate Field and 29-36 away, and the entire favorite premium sits on that number.
- Cross-platform spread: Chicago is 53c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, a 2c split that opened overnight from a shared 52c open.
- Run environment: Over 8.5 runs at 48c and both run lines in the mid-30s point to a one-run or two-run game.
- Bullpen exposure: with the implied total just under nine and both starters priced for five to six strikeouts, the relievers decide the moneyline.
- Series stake: Chicago won the opener 6-4 and can take the series with a win, with the AL Central lead as the backdrop.
Related Mets vs White Sox Markets
Chicago's night connects directly to the 2026 AL Central market, where the White Sox hold the lead they are defending in this series, and to the 2026 World Series market. New York's remaining schedule prices into the 2026 NL East market. Full cross-platform boards for both clubs live on the Chicago White Sox hub and the New York Mets hub, and every game on the slate is on the MLB odds hub.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Rate Field in Chicago on August 22, 2026, first pitch scheduled for 7:10 PM ET. Run line contracts settle on the final margin of victory, full-game and first-five-innings totals settle on the number of runs actually scored, and player props settle on the official MLB box score. Kalshi settles the KXMLBGAME series and Polymarket settles its matching game market once the result is official, normally within a few hours of the final out. If the game is postponed, settlement moves to the makeup date under each platform published rules. A game shortened by weather settles on the official final score provided it has reached the required number of innings, and a game that does not become official is voided or rolled forward per platform.
Key Factors
- Christian Scott (4-3, 3.51 ERA) versus Luis Castillo (4-9, 4.99 ERA), a 1.48-run ERA gap favoring the underdog
- Chicago 38-25 at home versus 29-36 on the road, the basis of the entire favorite premium
- Cross-platform split on the White Sox: 53c Kalshi versus 51c Polymarket after a shared 52c overnight open
- Over 8.5 runs at 48c and both run lines in the mid-30s, pricing a one-run or two-run game
- Strikeout props favor Scott (6-plus at 57c) over Castillo (6-plus at 39c)
- AL Central lead at stake for Chicago after a 6-4 win in the series opener
What are the current Mets vs White Sox odds?
As of the morning of August 22, 2026, the White Sox are 53c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, and the Mets are 49c on Kalshi and 50c on Polymarket. That is a consensus of roughly 52c on Chicago, close to an even game.
Who is favored in Mets vs White Sox?
The White Sox are the narrow favorite at a 52c consensus, an implied win probability of about 52%. Chicago is 67-61 and 38-25 at home, while New York is 58-71 and 28-36 on the road.
Who is pitching in Mets vs White Sox?
Christian Scott (4-3, 3.51 ERA) starts for the Mets and Luis Castillo (4-9, 4.99 ERA) starts for the White Sox. The strikeout market prices Scott higher, at 57c for six or more strikeouts against 39c for Castillo.
What is the total for Mets vs White Sox?
Over 8.5 runs trades at 48c and Over 7.5 at 56c, putting the implied total just under nine runs. Both run lines sit in the mid-30s, with White Sox -1.5 at 34c and Mets -1.5 at 36c to 37c.
Where can I trade the Mets vs White Sox market?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the game. Kalshi runs it under the KXMLBGAME series with matching run line, total, and strikeout markets, and Polymarket carries the moneyline, which holds $31.1K of the board total of $78.3K in lifetime volume.
When does the Mets vs White Sox market resolve?
It resolves after the game at Rate Field on August 22, 2026, with first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. Watch the lineup cards and any late scratch to Scott or Castillo, since the 2c cross-platform split is small enough that a pitching change would move it more than the overnight trade did.