New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Final Score and Odds Recap, August 4, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mets | +2.5 — | O 0.5 1%1% | 1% | 1% Kalshi |
Guardians | -2.5 — | U 0.5 — | 1% | 1% Kalshi |
Cleveland was the 58c home favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket and lost 6-2 to a 43c New York road underdog at Progressive Field on August 4, 2026. The moneyline settled at 100c for the Mets and 0c for the Guardians on a board that carried roughly $1.2M in cumulative volume. The 58c price implied a 42% chance of a Cleveland loss, so the winner was inside the distribution; the four-run margin, built on two home runs before the third inning ended, was not.
The market made Cleveland the 58c home favorite and the game was effectively decided by the third inning. New York won 6-2 at Progressive Field on August 4, 2026, turning the 43c road underdog into a four-run winner and settling the moneyline at 100c for the Mets and 0c for the Guardians. The board carried roughly $1.2M in cumulative volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, and both books had Cleveland at the identical 58c before first pitch, so there was no cross-platform disagreement for anyone to trade.
How the Mets vs Guardians Market Priced the Game
Cleveland went off at 58c on Kalshi and 58c on Polymarket, with New York at 43c. The 101c sum across the two sides is the standard book vig, and the identical cross-platform read is the more interesting detail: on a board this liquid, a 0c spread between Kalshi and Polymarket means both order books converged on the same number and neither offered a better price on either side.
A 58c favorite is a modest one. It implies Cleveland wins about 58 times out of 100 and loses the other 42, so a Guardians loss on its own is an ordinary outcome, not a mispricing. Sportsbook pricing agreed with the exchanges: DraftKings closed Cleveland at -128 with a 7.5 total and a 1.5 run line, which is the same read expressed in a different unit.
What the 58c price did not anticipate was the margin. A near coin-flip line prices a tight game, and the modal outcome behind a 58/43 board is a one-run or two-run result in either direction. New York won by four and led by four inside three innings, which is the tail the price treated as unlikely rather than the middle of its distribution. The Mets team hub and the Guardians team hub carry the rest of each club's board.
How the Mets vs Guardians Game Was Won
New York scored first and never trailed. Luis Torrens hit a three-run homer to right center (375 feet) in the second inning, scoring Marcus Semien and Jared Young for a 3-0 lead. Bo Bichette added a solo shot to left center (422 feet) in the third to make it 4-0. Cleveland answered in the bottom of the third on an Angel Martinez RBI double that scored Jo Adell, then got within 5-2 in the fifth on a Travis Bazzana RBI single that scored Chase DeLauter. Carson Benge closed the scoring with a 451-foot solo home run to center in the eighth.
Sean Manaea took the ball for New York and went 6.0 innings, allowing 7 hits and 2 earned runs with 5 walks and 7 strikeouts on 100 pitches, moving his ERA to 4.33. The Mets bullpen then threw 3.0 hitless innings behind him: Daniel Duarte (0.2), Nate Lavender (1.1), and Kodai Senga (1.0) combined to allow zero runs and zero hits with three walks. Joey Cantillo carried a 3.87 ERA into the start for Cleveland and lasted 5.0 innings, giving up 7 hits, 5 runs (2 earned), and both of the early home runs.
Torrens was the game, going 3-for-3 with 4 RBI out of the nine hits New York collected. Cleveland managed 7 hits and drew 8 walks but stranded the traffic, striking out 8 times against Mets pitching. Attendance was 24,636.
The result left Cleveland at 57-57 overall and 28-29 at home, 3 games behind Chicago in the AL Central. New York fell to 48-66 and 23-32 on the road, 20.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East. The Mets took a 1-0 lead in the three-game series.
How the Mets vs Guardians Spread and Total Settled
The run line was the cleaner read than the moneyline. New York at -1.5, -2.5, and -3.5 all settled at 100c on the four-run margin, and only the -4.5 rung failed, settling at 0c. Cleveland -1.5 and -2.5 settled at 0c. Anyone who bought the Mets alternate run line at any rung through -3.5 got paid in full.
The total landed just over the number. Eight combined runs cleared the 7.5 line that both the exchanges and DraftKings posted, so Over 7.5 settled at 100c while Over 8.5 settled at 0c. The scoring was front-loaded: 7 of the 8 runs came in the first five innings, which pushed the first-five-innings market over 6.5 and settled that rung at roughly 99c. Only Benge's eighth-inning homer scored after the fifth.
Key Mets vs Guardians Takeaways
The favorite was priced right and still lost: Cleveland at 58c implied a 42% chance of exactly this outcome, so the loss was inside the distribution, not outside it.
The margin was the miss, not the winner: a 58/43 board prices a tight game, and a four-run road win by the underdog sits in the tail.
Zero cross-platform edge: Kalshi and Polymarket both showed 58c on Cleveland, so there was no better side of the same question on either book.
Two early home runs decided it: Torrens (three-run, 375 feet) and Bichette (solo, 422 feet) built a 4-0 lead before Cleveland recorded an out in the bottom of the third.
Starting pitching split the difference: Manaea went 6.0 innings for 2 earned runs while Cantillo allowed 5 runs (2 earned) in 5.0 innings on the two long balls.
The total barely cleared: 8 runs on a 7.5 line, with 7 of them in the first five innings.
Related Mets vs Guardians Markets
The series continues on the August 5 game board, where Cleveland gets the chance to even a three-game set it now trails 1-0. The longer-dated read on both clubs trades on the Guardians playoff market, where a 57-57 record 3 games out of the AL Central lead is the live question, and the Mets playoff market, where 48-66 and 20.5 games back has already made the answer close to academic. Every other MLB board across Kalshi and Polymarket is indexed on the MLB hub.
Resolution Criteria
The market settled on the final score of the completed game at Progressive Field on August 4, 2026, which New York won 6-2. The moneyline resolved YES for the New York Mets at 100c and NO for the Cleveland Guardians at 0c, with each winning contract paying $1 per share and every losing contract paying $0. Alternate run lines settled on the four-run margin, so New York -1.5, -2.5, and -3.5 all resolved YES while New York -4.5 and every Cleveland spread rung resolved NO. Totals settled on the 8 combined runs, clearing Over 7.5 and failing Over 8.5, and the first-five-innings total settled on the 7 runs scored through five. Kalshi and Polymarket both finalized the game board after the official result was posted.
Key Factors
- Cleveland priced at 58c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, implying a 42% chance of the loss that happened
- Four-run margin sat in the tail of a 58/43 board that priced a tight game
- Luis Torrens went 3-for-3 with 4 RBI including a three-run homer in the second inning
- Sean Manaea threw 6.0 innings of 2-earned-run ball; the Mets bullpen added 3.0 hitless innings
- New York alternate run lines settled YES through -3.5 and NO at -4.5
- Total cleared a 7.5 line with 8 runs, 7 of them scored in the first five innings
Who won the Mets vs Guardians game on August 4, 2026?
The New York Mets won 6-2 at Progressive Field in Cleveland. New York scored first in the second inning and never trailed, taking a 1-0 lead in the three-game series.
Was the prediction market right about Mets vs Guardians?
No. Cleveland was the 58c home favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket and New York was the 43c road underdog. The moneyline settled at 100c for the Mets and 0c for the Guardians.
Where did the Mets vs Guardians market trade?
On Kalshi and Polymarket, as a verified cross-platform pair. The game board carried roughly $1.2M in cumulative volume, and both books priced Cleveland at the identical 58c before first pitch.
Did the Mets vs Guardians spread and total land?
New York covered every alternate run line through -3.5 on the four-run win, and -4.5 settled at 0c. The 8 combined runs cleared the Over 7.5 total and fell short of Over 8.5.
Who pitched in the Mets vs Guardians game?
Sean Manaea started for New York and went 6.0 innings with 7 hits, 2 earned runs, 5 walks, and 7 strikeouts. Joey Cantillo started for Cleveland and allowed 5 runs (2 earned) on 7 hits over 5.0 innings, including two home runs.
What should traders watch in the rest of the Mets vs Guardians series?
Cleveland sits at 57-57 and 3 games behind Chicago in the AL Central, so the remaining two games of the series carry real weight on the Guardians playoff market. New York, at 48-66, is playing for nothing but the series.