Mets vs Brewers Prediction Market Odds, July 22, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Mets | +1.5 61%61% | O 4.5 83% | 42%43% | 43% Polymarket |
â–¶Brewers | -1.5 39%39% | U 4.5 17% | 59%57% | 59% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶New York Mets | +1.5 | O 4.5 | 43% Polymarket | |
â–¶Milwaukee Brewers | -1.5 | U 4.5 | 59% Kalshi |
The Milwaukee Brewers are the 59c moneyline favorite (59c on Kalshi, 59c on Polymarket) over the New York Mets at 42c in the July 22, 2026 series finale, the widest moneyline gap on the MLB slate. The price is anchored on a 21-game record gap, with Milwaukee at 63-37 and New York at 42-59, but the Mets are priced above their record because Christian Scott (2.87 ERA) takes the ball. The board trades roughly $61K across two platforms. The live board above carries the current moneyline, run line, and total.
The Milwaukee Brewers are the 59c moneyline favorite (59c on Kalshi, 59c on Polymarket) over the New York Mets at 42c in the July 22, 2026 series finale at American Family Field. It is the widest moneyline gap on the MLB board, and the number rests on a 21-game record separation: Milwaukee is 63-37, New York is 42-59. The live board above ranks the current Kalshi and Polymarket prices across the moneyline, run line, and total.
Mets vs Brewers Odds and Team Form
Milwaukee enters at 63-37 overall and 33-18 at home, and is 4-1 over its last five with a four-game win streak that includes an 8-3 win over the Mets in the series opener on July 20. New York is 42-59 overall and 21-31 on the road, and is 2-3 over its last five. Milwaukee leads the current series 1-0 heading into the finale.
The pricing carries a notable gap to the models. ESPN's matchup predictor projects Milwaukee at 70.1% to win, while the market has the Brewers at 59c, an implied read closer to 58% once the two-sided prices are netted. The market is meaningfully lighter on Milwaukee than the model, and the reason sits on the mound.
Mets vs Brewers Pitching Matchup
The Mets counter their record with Christian Scott, who is 3-1 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, and has punched out 72 in 59.2 innings. That start is why New York holds 42c rather than a price that matches a 42-59 team. Milwaukee sends Logan Henderson, 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA and a sharp 0.93 WHIP across 33.1 innings with 38 strikeouts. On ERA the two starters are separated by a tenth of a run, which compresses the game beyond what the standings suggest and explains the 59c-42c line rather than a wider one.
What the Mets vs Brewers Run Line and Total Imply
The run line prices the Brewers at -1.5 at 38c on Kalshi and 39c on Polymarket, a 1c cross-platform split and the only place the two books disagree. The total sits at 8.5 runs, with the over at 44c on both platforms, so the market leans under at that number and pays 52c on the 7.5 over. Two starters under a 3.00 ERA support the lower run environment the total is pricing. On line movement, the Brewers moneyline has held flat at 59c across the tracked snapshots with no drift from the open, and the books have stayed locked at 59c on both sides, a sign of an efficient, agreed price rather than a contested one.
When the Mets vs Brewers Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game on July 22, 2026 at American Family Field in Milwaukee. The run line settles on the final margin (Milwaukee must win by 2 or more to cover -1.5), and the total settles on combined runs scored against the 8.5 line. All contracts settle on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game is final. If the game is postponed or suspended, settlement follows each platform's official-game rules.
Key Mets vs Brewers Factors
- Christian Scott: the Mets starter (2.87 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 72 K) is the reason New York holds 42c despite a 42-59 record.
- Logan Henderson: the Brewers starter (2.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) anchors a club that is 33-18 at home.
- Model gap: the market prices Milwaukee at 59c against ESPN's 70.1% projection, the widest read-to-model gap on the slate.
- Run line split: Brewers -1.5 trades at 38c on Kalshi and 39c on Polymarket, the lone cross-platform disagreement.
- Total: the 8.5-run total pays 44c to the over on both books, leaning under with two sub-3.00 ERA starters.
- Series momentum: Milwaukee leads the series after an 8-3 win on July 20 and rides a four-game win streak.
Related MLB Markets
This is the finale of the set that opened with the Mets at Brewers on July 20. Track the clubs on the Milwaukee Brewers hub and the New York Mets hub, follow Milwaukee's division position in the NL Central race, and see the full slate on the MLB hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the game on July 22, 2026 at American Family Field in Milwaukee. The moneyline pays the winning team, the run line settles on the final margin (Milwaukee must win by 2 or more runs to cover -1.5), and the total settles on combined runs scored against the 8.5 line. All contracts settle on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game goes final. If the game is postponed, suspended, or shortened, settlement follows each platform's official-game and rain-out rules.
Key Factors
- Christian Scott (2.87 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 72 K) start is why the Mets hold 42c despite a 42-59 record
- Logan Henderson (2.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) anchors the Brewers, who are 33-18 at American Family Field
- Market prices the Brewers at 59c versus ESPN's 70.1% projection, the widest read-to-model gap on the slate
- Brewers -1.5 run line trades at 38c on Kalshi and 39c on Polymarket, a 1c cross-platform split
- The 8.5-run total pays 44c to the over on both books, leaning under with two sub-3.00 ERA starters
- Milwaukee leads the series after an 8-3 win on July 20 and enters on a four-game win streak
What are the current Mets vs Brewers odds?
As of July 22, 2026, the Milwaukee Brewers are the 59c moneyline favorite (59c on Kalshi, 59c on Polymarket) and the New York Mets are the underdog at 42c. The live board above shows the current prices.
Who is favored in Mets vs Brewers on July 22, 2026?
Milwaukee is favored at 59c, an implied win probability near 58% once the two-sided prices are netted. ESPN's model is higher on the Brewers at 70.1%.
Who is pitching in Mets vs Brewers?
The Mets start Christian Scott (3-1, 2.87 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) and the Brewers start Logan Henderson (3-1, 2.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP). The two starters are separated by roughly a tenth of a run in ERA.
What is the Mets vs Brewers run line and total?
The Brewers are -1.5 on the run line at 38c on Kalshi and 39c on Polymarket. The total is 8.5 runs, with the over priced at 44c on both platforms as of July 22, 2026.
When does the Mets vs Brewers market resolve?
It resolves when the game goes final on July 22, 2026 at American Family Field. Contracts settle on Kalshi and Polymarket on the winner, the final margin against -1.5, and combined runs against the 8.5 total.