Yankees vs Cubs Prediction Market Odds, July 31, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Yankees | +1.5 59%65% | O 9.5 46%46% | 24%24% | 24% Kalshi |
â–¶Cubs | -1.5 41%35% | U 9.5 54%54% | 36%35% | 36% Kalshi |
Chicago is the 58.5c favorite in the opener of a three-game interleague set at Wrigley Field (58c Kalshi, 59c Polymarket) against New York at 42.5c (43c Kalshi, 42c Polymarket), a 16c gap between two clubs separated by one game in the win column. The Cubs are 62-47 and the Yankees are 61-48, so the price is not a standings read. It comes off the mound and the venue: Shota Imanaga (7-8, 3.72 ERA) starts against Will Warren (7-5, 4.41 ERA), and Chicago is 30-22 at home. ESPN's matchup predictor puts the Cubs at 58.6%, within a point of the board's 57.9% once the hold is stripped. The moneyline has barely moved, with Kalshi's Cubs leg printing 58c at all four intraday snapshots while the Yankees leg slipped from 44c to 43c.
New York and Chicago are separated by one game in the win column and 16c on the moneyline. The Cubs trade at 58.5c on the merged board (58c Kalshi, 59c Polymarket) against the Yankees at 42.5c (43c Kalshi, 42c Polymarket). Both legs sum to 101c on each venue, so there is about a cent of hold to strip out, which puts Chicago's true price near 57.9%. DraftKings reads it the same way at a wider number, listing the Cubs at -156 against New York at +129, and ESPN's matchup predictor has Chicago at 58.6%. Three independent reads land inside a single point of each other. First pitch is 2:20 pm ET at Wrigley Field, opening a three-game set on the July 31 MLB slate.
Yankees vs Cubs Market Context
Chicago is 62-47 and second in the National League Central, 5.5 games behind Milwaukee (67-41). New York is 61-48 and second in the American League East, 3.5 games behind Tampa Bay (64-44). Both clubs are 6-4 across their last 10, so the 16c gap on the moneyline is not a quality separation. It is a venue and rotation read. The Cubs are 30-22 at Wrigley Field against 32-25 on the road, and the Yankees are the better travel team in this game at 35-25 away from Yankee Stadium against 26-23 at home, which is what keeps New York from drifting below 42.5c. This is the first regular-season meeting between the two clubs in 2026.
Form leans to the home side by a small margin. Chicago took three of four at St. Louis and closed the set with a 4-2 win in 10 innings, carrying a one-game winning streak into the opener. New York split four games at the White Sox but lost the last two, 6-5 in 12 innings and 2-1 in 11, and arrives on a two-game skid. The Yankees also carry the heavier injury list. Aaron Judge (60-day, ribs), Giancarlo Stanton (10-day, calf), Carlos Rodon (15-day, elbow) and Clarke Schmidt (60-day, elbow) are all out, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. listed day to day with a leg issue. Chicago is down Matt Shaw (10-day, hand) and Tyler Austin (60-day, knee) plus three relievers, a lighter list at the top of the roster. Ben Rice now leads New York in average (.269), home runs (31) and RBI (73), the distribution a lineup produces when the middle of its order is unavailable.
The Yankees vs Cubs Pitching Matchup
Shota Imanaga (7-8, 3.72 ERA) starts for Chicago against Will Warren (7-5, 4.41 ERA) for New York, a 0.69-run ERA edge to the home side and the largest single input in the price. The strikeout board agrees with the direction. Kalshi prices Imanaga at 82c to record three strikeouts and 30c to reach seven, while Warren is 30c to reach six and 26c to reach seven. Imanaga is priced one strikeout further at the same probability, and both ladders fall off quickly above six, which is the market pricing a bullpen game from the sixth inning on.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the Cubs' leader in all three triple-crown categories at .285 with 24 home runs and 63 RBI, and he trades at 71c for a hit and 25c to go deep. Alex Bregman is 65c for a hit and 15c for a home run. Team totals put the run of expectation on Chicago: the Cubs over 4.5 runs trade 52c against New York over 4.5 at 45c, and Chicago over 3.5 is 67c against 60c for the Yankees. That 7c gap at both rungs is the cleanest expression of the ERA edge anywhere on the board.
The prop market is the one place the two venues disagree badly. Polymarket prices ten different batters between 35c and 40c to hit a home run, including 35c on Bregman against Kalshi's 15c and 40c on Crow-Armstrong against Kalshi's 25c. A book that prices every hitter in both lineups inside a 5c band is not producing a read, and the Kalshi numbers are the ones with a distribution behind them.
What the Yankees vs Cubs Run Line and Total Price In
The run line says a one-run game is very much live. Chicago at -1.5 trades 40c on both venues and New York at -1.5 trades 32c on both, so 72c of the board sits on two-run-or-better outcomes and roughly 28c sits in one-run games. At -2.5 the rungs fall to 29.5c for Chicago (30c Kalshi, 29c Polymarket) and 23.5c for New York (24c Kalshi, 23c Polymarket), and Kalshi extends the ladder alone to -3.5 at 23c for the Cubs and 17c for the Yankees.
The total is priced at 9 runs, the same number DraftKings posted. Over 8.5 trades 56.5c (57c Kalshi, 56c Polymarket) and over 9.5 trades 46c on both venues, which puts the implied median at exactly 9. The full ladder runs 74c on over 6.5, 64c on over 7.5, 39c on over 10.5 and 30c on over 11.5. First-five markets price over 4.5 at 56c and over 5.5 at 44c, and a run in the opening inning trades 52.5c (52c Kalshi, 53c Polymarket) after ticking up a cent on Kalshi through the evening.
Cross-platform, the game markets are inside a cent of each other everywhere that matters, and the split runs in opposite directions on the two legs. Kalshi is the cheaper buy on Chicago at 58c against 59c, and Polymarket is the cheaper buy on New York at 42c against 43c, so the two sides can be assembled for 100c across the two venues instead of 101c on either one. The widest gap on any game market is 3c, on the first-five over 6.5 (35c Kalshi, 32c Polymarket). Kalshi carries the liquidity at $10.5K on the Cubs moneyline leg and $10.7K on the Yankees leg against $5.2K on the Polymarket event, out of $20.5K across the whole board. Polymarket does list a three-way after-five market Kalshi does not, pricing Chicago at 49c to lead after five innings, New York at 36c and a tie at 14c.
Line movement here is a story of absence. Kalshi's Cubs leg printed 58c at all four intraday snapshots taken through Thursday evening, and the Yankees leg moved once, from 44c to 43c, then held. Polymarket's Yankees leg sat at 44c through five snapshots before settling at 42c across the last three. That is a 1c to 2c drift off New York and no move at all on Chicago. DraftKings went the other way over the same window, opening the Cubs at -136 and moving to -156, a swing of more than 3 points in implied terms. The prediction market has not followed the sportsbook, and the 58c Chicago leg is now the cheaper of the two prices.
When the Yankees vs Cubs Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game scheduled for Friday, July 31, 2026 at Wrigley Field, first pitch 2:20 pm ET, with the official MLB result as the source of truth. Kalshi lists it under ticker KXMLBGAME-26JUL311420NYYCHC. Each winning team contract pays $1 per share and the losing contract resolves to $0. The run line settles on the final margin, so Chicago at -1.5 requires a two-run win. The game total settles on combined runs scored, so over 8.5 requires 9 or more. First-five markets settle on the score after five complete innings, and the first-inning market settles on whether either team scores in the opening frame.
Key Yankees vs Cubs Catalysts
- Starting pitching gap: Shota Imanaga (7-8, 3.72 ERA) against Will Warren (7-5, 4.41 ERA) is a 0.69-run ERA edge to the home side.
- Yankees availability: Aaron Judge (60-day, ribs), Giancarlo Stanton (10-day, calf), Carlos Rodon (15-day, elbow) and Clarke Schmidt (60-day, elbow) are out, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. day to day.
- Venue split: Chicago is 30-22 at Wrigley Field, but New York is 35-25 on the road, the better travel record of the two clubs.
- Flat moneyline against a moving book: the Cubs leg printed 58c at all four Kalshi snapshots while DraftKings moved from -136 to -156.
- Cross-platform assembly: Chicago is 1c cheaper on Kalshi and New York is 1c cheaper on Polymarket, so the pair costs 100c across venues against 101c on either one.
- Prop book divergence: Polymarket prices ten batters between 35c and 40c to homer against Kalshi's 15c on Bregman and 25c on Crow-Armstrong.
Related Yankees vs Cubs Markets
Both clubs come in off division road trips whose boards stay live with their own settlement history: the Yankees game at the White Sox and the Cubs game at St. Louis. The standings stakes trade separately in the NL Central market, where Chicago sits 5.5 games back, and the AL East market, where New York sits 3.5 back. Season-long exposure to either club runs through the Cubs playoff market and the Yankees playoff market, with the World Series market as the outright. Pete Crow-Armstrong's production feeds the NL MVP market and Ben Rice's feeds the AL MVP market. Team-level pricing history lives on the Cubs hub and the Yankees hub, and the full cross-platform baseball board is on the sports page.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the game scheduled for Friday, July 31, 2026 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, first pitch 2:20 pm ET, with the official MLB result as the source of truth. Kalshi lists the game under ticker KXMLBGAME-26JUL311420NYYCHC and Polymarket lists the same pairing as an event market. Each winning team contract pays $1 per share and the losing team contract resolves to $0. The run line settles on the final margin, so a Chicago -1.5 contract requires a two-run win, and the game total settles on combined runs scored, so over 8.5 requires 9 or more. First-five-innings markets settle on the score after five complete innings, and the first-inning run market settles on whether either team scores in the opening frame. If the game is postponed or suspended, each platform applies its own postponement rules to the official rescheduled result, and contracts void if the game is not completed within the contract window.
Key Factors
- Shota Imanaga (7-8, 3.72 ERA) starts for Chicago against Will Warren (7-5, 4.41 ERA), a 0.69-run ERA edge to the home side
- New York is without Aaron Judge (60-day IL, ribs), Giancarlo Stanton (10-day, calf), Carlos Rodon (15-day, elbow) and Clarke Schmidt (60-day, elbow), with Jazz Chisholm Jr. day to day
- Chicago is 30-22 at Wrigley Field, but New York is 35-25 on the road, the better travel record of the two clubs
- Both clubs are 6-4 in their last 10, and one game separates them in the win column at 62-47 and 61-48
- The Cubs moneyline leg printed 58c at all four Kalshi intraday snapshots while DraftKings moved from -136 to -156
- Chicago is 1c cheaper on Kalshi and New York is 1c cheaper on Polymarket, so both sides can be assembled for 100c across venues
What are the current Yankees vs Cubs odds?
As of July 31, 2026, Chicago is 58.5c on the merged board (58c Kalshi, 59c Polymarket) and New York is 42.5c (43c Kalshi, 42c Polymarket). Both venues sum to 101c, so about a cent of hold sits in those numbers.
Who is favored in Yankees vs Cubs on July 31, 2026?
Chicago, by a margin every model agrees on. The 58.5c price implies 57.9% once the merged hold is removed, ESPN's matchup predictor has the Cubs at 58.6%, and DraftKings at -156 implies 58.3% no-vig. All three land inside a single point.
Who are the probable starting pitchers for Yankees vs Cubs?
Shota Imanaga (7-8, 3.72 ERA) for the Cubs against Will Warren (7-5, 4.41 ERA) for the Yankees. That 0.69-run ERA gap is the main reason a 61-48 New York club is priced at 42.5c against a 62-47 Chicago club.
What is the Yankees vs Cubs run line and total?
Chicago -1.5 trades 40c and New York -1.5 trades 32c, leaving about 28c of the board in one-run outcomes. Over 8.5 runs trades 56.5c and over 9.5 trades 46c, putting the implied median at 9 runs, the same total DraftKings posted.
Where does the Yankees vs Cubs market trade?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list it. Kalshi runs it under ticker KXMLBGAME-26JUL311420NYYCHC and carries the liquidity at $10.5K on the Cubs leg and $10.7K on the Yankees leg, against $5.2K on the Polymarket event, out of $20.5K across the board.
What should I watch before Yankees vs Cubs resolves?
Whether the board follows DraftKings, which moved the Cubs from -136 to -156 while Kalshi held 58c at every snapshot. Watch the Yankees lineup card too, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. day to day and Judge and Stanton both on the injured list. This is game one of three at Wrigley Field.